chenb1981

chenb1981

The NQ has had a clean break out of the two week long range on the back of some supportive comments from the Fed. Bears don't cry. Just accept what's really happening. This range is pivoted around 6700 ranging from 6600 to 6800. A 100% projection of the current range would bring the index very close to the 7000 mark. I believe that the 200% expansion is also...

chenb1981

DAX has been overlapping to the down side since a short term high was placed on last Friday. After running the double bottom formed on Tuesday this morning, the formation of bullish cup and handle is taking shape. The handle part of the formation has retested the prior break out zone from 11145 to 11160 has given more strength to this formation.

chenb1981

GE stock price has been in the free fall style crashing down since October break down of the 12 dollar mark. The falling has been exacerbated by the back drop of weak general market. As the panic sets in, the sharks moved in. The volume expanded at the low while the price is making a flat correction below 8 dollar mark. My suspicions of strong hand absorption...

chenb1981

JD has fulfilled its first down side target after breaking down from the big head and shoulder's pattern. It is likely for it to retrace higher to build energy for the second leg down. After a big topping formation, there is usually two legs to the down side. Now it is time to wait patiently for the corrective structure to form and then trade again on the short side.

chenb1981 Updated 

The financials (XLF) have broken down from its top formation effectively ending a 9 year bull run. However, the break was a bit too hard too fast and I think there is some room for a decent size bounce if the Fed is willing to give some hint that the pace of tightening is negotiable to the circumstance. Among all the big names in the financial space, I like...

chenb1981 Updated 

SMH has falsely break out of the 98 double top resistance level on the back of some positive general market sentiment. However, the break was short lived and it has been quickly auctioned back into the old trading range. A false pattern is a powerful pattern in itself as a failure at one side of the range tend to fuel move to the other side of the range. Now I...

chenb1981 Updated 

Cac has broken down from the crown formation back in the October, but the 4900 level were holding up as support. However, things finally started to crack and the prices are breaking down from that level. I think it is inevitable that the Cac is going to challenge the 4600 consolidation area. That range contains a good half year of price action, which should...

chenb1981 Updated 

The bulls have failed to take back 4900, and the sellers are unrelenting. The market is too weak to break the pattern of lower highs. After the lower high being formed on last Thursday, it is merely a matter of time to see a lower low to print. The Monday's trading is crucial in shaping up the last week of trading by setting up an opening range. If the opening...

chenb1981 Updated 

DAX has been lifted off from the 11100 low after a false break down. However, the long term structure is still bearish so long as it is not able to stand back above 12000 key level. Therefore we are looking to re-exert the shorts when the time is right. One of the possibility is when DAX meets the potential resistance offered by this down sloping trend line. I...

chenb1981

The bounce in Cac after the big October stock rout has pretty much run out of the energy. It has traded back into the 5080 - 5180 area before the last down leg. Now there is a sign that it might be breaking down from this trading range. However, the break looks lacking conviction and absence of follow through. It is possible that it gains down side momentum during...

chenb1981

A false break of the yearly high is a sign of weakness. After the running the stops and testing the break out point, it is possible for the Dollar to make another high making a big MM like crown formation. But a high probability scenario is for it to test the major fib retracement level before coming down hard.

chenb1981

Last Friday's failed attempt in the Dollar index at 96.10 resistance raise the probability of a running flat formation. With one more down move to test the prior low at 95 would complete this corrective structure. Hence my plan for the next week is to look for short buy setups aiming for 95. From that level, I am going to monitor for seller failure to get in a...

chenb1981

Yesterday the Dollar index has flushed below the double bottom weak structure below 94.95. However, that break didn't spark the momentum for a down side continuation, instead, it has created a big look-below-and-fail pattern that is essentially called an end to the down auction with an excess. Now we are going to work with a bullish directional bias on the Dollar...

chenb1981 Updated 

The major Chinese stock index, shanghai Composite, is not as bearish you might think or you might heard it to be in the news. It has just broken out of a month long fallen wedge formation, which usually appears at the end of a major trend. The break down yesterday provided great buying opportunities. Given the size of the fallen wedge pattern, it should be at...

chenb1981

The dollar had a great move after the Fed announcement that it falsely break down first to suck in shorts and then broke the key pivotal level of 94.35 to the upside.The 95 mark was quickly taken out in a breeze. There was a bit of pullback late afternoon last Friday, but the 95 level has been holding as support. For the next week, I would watch 95 mark as the...

chenb1981

ES/SPX500 has formed a rising wedge pattern in the H4 time frame. This could signal an end of a bullish wave structure that runs from 2720 to 2820. Once this wedge structure is broken, ES could be auction aggressively to the downside. We have seen the leader of this bullish run, NQ, has turned weak since yesterday, it would not be surprising to see ES to start a...

chenb1981

I think very few people are going to argue about the fact that DAX has changed its character after the big long liquidation bar occurred in the first hour of last Wed's London session. Yesterday's break has confirmed the range between 12935 to 13000 was merely a re-distribution range. In fact, there were some sign of strength appeared in that range and i was to...

chenb1981

The S&P has staged a strong rally after the buyer capitulation. It has shown the professional hands to us that there are plenty of willingness and ammunition to buy the market at the 2530 region. If the bullish leg were to continue, it would have to clear out the 2660 level where a bearish order block meets the 61.8 fib of the whole down move from Wednesday to...