chinawildman

chinawildman Updated 

Shoulda caught this H&S neckline before... Looks like one more impulse down to complete wave 5 of C and the H&S pattern. Massive support levels around 1433-1425. Wave 2 top, channel bottom, bullish gartley, 1.618 AB=CD extension. Looking for oversold conditions on higher TFs and bullish divergence. Easy buy in this range, Feb GLD calls look tasty once we get a lower low.

chinawildman

Already seeing headlines boasting BIGGEST BLACK FRIDAY EVAR!!! Looking like a setup for a good short, especially as a hedge if you're long the overbought scam that is the SPX right now. Thxgiving week (light blue intervals) has marked a local top or a continuation of a downtrend in 4 out of the past 6 years. The purple indicator is correlation w/ put volume on...

chinawildman

Take a look at the red line in this chart. It's the relative performance of SMH as compared to SPX. The green line is MFI. Note how each time this line starts to nosedive, and the move is confirmed by MFI, it's lead to further weakness in SMH, and more often than not, it marks a top in the index as well. SMH is now bumping up against the 1.618 extension from the...

chinawildman Updated 

I was messing around w/ the Gann Square and drew the 1/1 from the Feb 2018 low... and lo and behold a few things suddenly line up: 1) Each Gann interval appears to mark a local top in the index, starting w/ the Jan 18 top, then the Sep 18 top, and then the May 19 top. Do note this is a 4 day chart so the tops were put in +/- a week of the labeled intervals. 2)...

chinawildman Updated 

The entire 2019 rally appears to be a 1.272x mirror image of the 2018 ABC selloff waves. Since I believe we are in a D wave of a large corrective expanding triangle, I expect the current rally to be a 5-3-5 corrective wave, where we are currently in a sub-wave 3 (or 4, if you think we're already turning around). Notice how each wave of the rally has been roughly...

chinawildman Updated 

Does the rally end this week? Check out the uncanny resemblance of this current wave to the structure of the final three drives wave 5 up in April right down to the time intervals between highs. Notice all the small three drives nested within each drive. What's even more interesting (and I never noticed this til now) is that if you keep going higher in wave...

chinawildman

I think we get a bounce here @ 133.6-134.5. Major TL support, bullish divergence, bullish gartley, and the 1.236 extension of B is where C waves of flats typically start. I think we draw an impulse here to finish out the flat, .618 retrace minimum. Premiums are cheap as hell for TLT and equities are way overbought.

chinawildman

Either in wave 5 or possibly already in wave 2 of a corrective leg down. Bearish butterfly PRZ upper range is 1325, daily close above this invalidates the thesis. Daily close below 1299 strongly supports thesis. Target 1253 before December, but there will be a wave to higher highs before all's said n' done.

chinawildman Updated 

Has been bouncing off the 1.236 extension going both ways... reads like a textbook expanded flat correction w/ another leg down to begin soon. With market in overbought conditions and FB historically dumping post earnings for at least a few wks this seems like a no-brainer short right now.

chinawildman Updated 

Bouncing off the 1.13 extension today and not able to recover high despite higher high in S&P. Target 151. Clear divergence present...

chinawildman Updated 

I said I'd short at 3050+ and here we go. New month, new chart. Target 2970-2985. Going heavy on the double top or higher high here as I can say w/ 90% confidence that we are in wave (v) of 5 here on this leg up. VIX is absolutely crushed and blatant divergence of higher TFs now. End of nov puts are cheap as hell... As expected the pattern for the past few days...

chinawildman Updated 

Gold has shown some monster resilience in the wake of this equities rally. Look at that accumulation, Buy on the breakout over 1590 (wave 2 is a flat) or buy on one more wave (e) dip to 1490 (wave 2 is an ascending triangle). Either way this thing looks to be going higher.

chinawildman

Bearish divergence on daily distribution, AB=CD at 1.618 extension, impulse wave about to complete, fib spiral (see screenshot, apparently can't lock vertical scale on these charts) Looking at roughly 245 as the top.

chinawildman

Looking like a three drives in a rising wedge that's about to complete wave B of a flat. haven't looked at this thing in awhile and was surprised it managed to make a new high recently. Momentum slowing down like early last yr as well... Always a change this is a leading diagonal but I just don't see it.

chinawildman Updated 

Those that have followed me into green october I think that run is about to come to an end. I suspected yesterday we'll take another stab at 3000 and here we are. The index almost ALWAYS paints a virtual double top as part of its wave 2 down, so I wouldn't get too eager about entering the short trade. Wait for bearish divergence at the very least on the hourly...

chinawildman Updated 

September was an absolutely sleep-depriving month to trade... There was almost no point in having a weekly strategy as every day was basically whipsaw back and forth. I most went day to day (no point in posting day trades) and eeked out some green, but tbh it wasn't worth it. I think we're in for a treat for october though. Today might have seemed bearish but...

chinawildman Updated 

Something I've notice in the past few yrs trading is that large selloffs always seem to be preceded by disproportionate tanks in software stocks like ADBE, CRM, etc... To see if I could confirm and illustrate this I took the correlation coefficient of IGV (software ETF) vs. SPY and overlaid it on the SPY chart. So it seems (at least in the past year) whenever...

chinawildman Updated 

August is in the books and it looks like the bulls have won and the bears have gone into hiding. Trade talks are back on and everything's swell... right? Not so fast... Bears should pay a great deal of attention of the all-important number of 2973: 1) 3rd wave of a flat is a motive 1-2-3-4-5 that retraces 1.236 of the 2nd wave @ 2973 2) Bearish gartley PRZ is at...