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VIX break-outs using a simplistic, effective approach, probabilities. Market themes or regimes based on markov chains? keeping it simple.

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In short: 1) Goldencross soon to be triggered. 2) too see how the stock could perform (with accumulated, low 200dma), we can look in 2023. It peaked in mid July. After explosive rally in november. 3) 13$ levels is the 50% fibonacci.. 4) 1st Elliot wave - people are skeptical. 2nd - woohoo. 3rd wave - fomo. //Advancing in relative strength (CLSK/SPX). //Small...

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Markets are simple if you think about it. moderate and long range resistance -- is the best odds for rally. "horizontal" or 50-50 supports -- risky. steep supports mean high demand, strong trends. Buying at such supports, at worst it bounces to the upside. (High market with strong trend can mean reversals) rule: break outs always must coincide with...

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According to statistics, 95% of traders are losing longterm. Not because they lack skill, but because they involve in high variance (or poor probability) situations. What is game theory? we can define GT with three principles. *People dont want to lose. (hence.. predictable). *People buy good things at good price, or they are profit maximizing. *Everyone is...

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Bullish "march" if all factors hold true? ie NVDA look weak-ish. Falling yields would be nice. Trump told his crypto team to investigate BTC reserve question within 100 days. That's now around April. www.investing.com Markets pricing 1st rate cut around June. Look into longterm macd potential.

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Sometimes you can predict market moves by price and S-D logic. Gold consolidated at 2500$, that works as a natural fib level? ie if market (SD dynamics) is strong enough -> either 3000$ is possible or 2500$ stays the limit. Bitcoin around 75k figures out which side is stronger --> does 100k make sense or 50k is greater. Which side market leans towards most - wins. ♟️

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Stock market is a adaptive system or a stock, with feedback loops (for inflow, outflow function). Where nobody knows the outcome or future, but feedbacks (corrections or resistance) gives tells (makes inflows or outflows). Without a common leader. Economists think in models (price is the result of supply-demand, or inflow-outflow) that helps to explain system...

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The way probability distribution works is most common the result - higher the result on the bell curve and rare events are on the bottom of curve. On strong markets, prices rarely ever sit still at pivotal levels like 200dma or high VIX. Here we also saw higher lows, market only had two directions (crash or bull). If you know how markets work (or the drivers)...

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I dont believe in horoscopes, but moon cycle influence on the stock market makes me a believer in astrology lol. Consensus is that new moon is bullish for risk and full moon is the end of risk taking. During full moon people argue more and there's a belief that we get less sleep.

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Using probability theory (Bayesian distribution) to predict when there's less resistance (outflow-inflow dynamics). 15.Sept is FED RATE decision; soo.. TLT bullish pre-October? curious.

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I think something like this make sense? We are at a 1st leg or wave of impulse, that is led by early adapters. 2nd leg up would be BTC outperforming SPX. 3rd wave would be a market chop w/ still some opportunities. 1st wave -> buy when it's cheap (bellow 70k crowd). Then comes rally to 120-150k. Before it becomes too expensive. 2nd and 3rd wave are led by ppl...

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Based on "Think fast and slow", people have two system thinking. System-1 is autonomous, always working in background (ie unconsciousness), lazy, intuitive, fast, has stereotypes. System-2 is rational, hard problem solving, takes effort and energy, cuts trough the BS, etc (ie consciousness). Based on another book called "superforcasters" and some dude I forgot...

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Using 45 degree angles for 2Y yield (or inflation barometer) and stock market (faang). Pretty useful. Bolts show where break downs of inflation are and where inflation is rising. 45 degrees show the strongest trend. You dont even need to use RSI. all must equal

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Markets move in cycles and based on game theory . Everyone is risk averse and everyone jumps in when it appears "risk free". This is how prices would be bid up. Stocks work like auction . During Bull runs -> Highest payer - bids up the prices and the averages increase. During Bears -> it's a fire sale. BUYER has an upper hand and takes the lower prices...

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Risk and Time are in opposite sides of a coin. Meaning what is unknown equals risk. Markets are forward pricing mechanism, meaning when something is known - usually was already priced in (bought with risk). H.Marks theory was you should buy things in advance, when there was hypothetical most risk; in practice it would be the least risk (as shown in graph). As...

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Copper bullish on economic growth; Gold (bull) during recessions, downturns, risks, etc. Another one is Silver/Gold (silver is industrial metal).

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Intermarket analysis of Oil ETF relative to SPX. This graph works because oil moves based on inflation, economy, commodities etc. Some of these spots were almost "risk free" (until proven otherwise). Meaning 100% - until something changes. Where are we now? USO needs to find support - and then we see.

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Pretty cool feature. You can use the 9month moving average in S5TH (spx stocks above the 200dma) to time the market cycle. Figure out the upward momentum (with help of game theory and TNX cycle). In practice and theory peoples options should be predictable because everyone act in their self-interest, seeking safety (hypothetical riskfree) and potential. I use...