pointless to try predicting what markets gonna do; it will be sum of dollar falling/Crude oil rallying, 10Y behaviour (value vs growth performance), etc. Also IWM performance (fueling small caps), etc. Anything is possible. Longterm probably people underestimate the energy crisis/shortages, look out what changes after labor day?
wont time the market, but need to survive a deathcross now, hopefully hold this level; nice channel is created. With a near term PT at 5.60s. Could even finally be low risk above 4.50+. Must see what oil does on monday, after OPEC+ agreement today. I think XLE is close to bottom too. I think in a long term anything is possible. Cyclicals will boom, when dollar...
even if it looks more like a trade than investment
I think putting it in within such a 'channel', make sense. (It trades along with this "trend" (line, on top, since 2020), which is has never succeeded to break, yet). Expect it to follow this pattern in future (copy/paste the trend line). Follow the long averages. (The bottom of channel is "bottom" of 2020 crash; and end of the initial "reflation trade" rally)....
ER by the period as well. this is the longterm "trend" (line) to follow. Would imagine getting above it to be super bullish. Once XLE/SPY gets "above", where it needs to be, more volume would hop in opportunistically.
RIG will test 7-8$, imho, when these two lines colide, in like september or october. (It's current trend). Expect some head wind in short term from slower global recovery (variant). It would be hard for XLE to return to where it came from; so that's extremely bullish . No crap head lines can't change fact that there was underinvestment into oil exploration; thus...
ascending triangle; needs to beat 4.20; 4.50; 5.20 (2019 levels).