dailytaguy

dailytaguy Updated 

BTCUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 47% BTC, 53% Cash. * The 7th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in at 1.4% this morning compared to 1.6% on 08/17/22. Cryptos, Equities, Commodities (aside from Soy, Silver, Copper, and Platinum), Futures, Treasuries and DXY are all up while the Euro is flat and VIX is trending down. Markets have been...

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ETHUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% ETH, 60% Cash. * S&P US August Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.3 (from 52.2 in July) , its lowest level since July 2020. Cryptos are seeing a continued rally from Sunday to start the week while Equities were mixed but stayed relatively flat. DXY took a dip while Treasuries are up, and both the VIX...

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SPXUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% SPX, 90% Cash. *Equities and Cryptos are getting smashed as DXY and US Treasuries rally higher. Quite simply this is a response to global recessionary fears (amplified by last week's disappointing global economic data) and a commitment by the Fed to continue FFR hikes for the rest of the year. It seems...

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BTCUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% BTC, 60% Cash. *Cryptos are seeing some bullish relief in today's session after a continued sell-off throughout most of the weekend; if Futures (Equities) start the week bullish then this could carry over into Cryptos. Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US August PMI at 945am EST 08/23 ; US Q2 Final GDP...

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ETHUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% ETH, 75% Cash. *Cryptos are continuing to sell off into the weekend as investors flee to DXY and US Treasuries amidst renewed global recession fears. The Merge is still scheduled for launch on Ethereum's Mainnet on 09/15/22 . Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US August PMI at 945am EST 08/23; US Q2 Final GDP...

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BTCUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% BTC, 65% Cash. *This bearish week was marked by degrading economic data from China, Germany and the USA, stoking global recession fears once again. China is currently seeing a weaker consumer (due to still ongoing effects of the Covid lockdowns), heat waves affecting factories, a weakening property...

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ETHUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% ETH, 45% Cash. *Cryptos and Equities both saw minor corrections at critical resistance levels after China's weak economic data, the Fed minutes and this week's barrage of recession-fear inducing US economic data (declining housing market, tightening credit market, shrinking GDP estimates,...

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SPXUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% SPX, 45% Cash. * The Fed Minutes confirmed preexisting knowledge that inflation is still the primary concern for the economy (making this release a low impact event) and that more downsizing of the Fed balance sheet + another 50bps is the baseline scenario for the next FOMC meeting on 09/21....

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BTCUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 75% BTC, 25% Cash . *July US Housing Starts are down -9.5% from June (compared to -2.5% consensus estimates); July US Building Permits are down -1.3% from June but are up 1.1% from June of 2021. The big miss on Housing Starts is reflective of recessionary fears and rising interest rates hindering people from...

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ETHUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 47% ETH, 53% Cash . * The PBOC (Central Bank of China) cut key lending rates for a second time this year (to the surprise of many) in response to weak economic data (worsening July credit, retail, industrial and property sector data) that projects China to miss its first GDP growth estimate since...

dailytaguy Updated 

BTCUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 53% BTC, 47% Cash. * St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reaffirmed on CNBC today that he does not see the economy in a recession due to resilient job growth and low unemployment but that whether or not we're in one is in the eye of the beholder; he also reiterated that the Fed should continue...

dailytaguy Updated 

BTCUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% BTC, 30% Cash. * WEEKEND RALLY WATCH . San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated today that though inflation is coming down they still have a long way to go before bringing Core PCE down to the Fed's 2% target; she also stated that her base case for September 21st is a 50bps rate hike and that she...

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BTCUSD Daily bullish. Recommended ratio: 90% BTC, 10% Cash . * SUNDAY/MONDAY SCARIES WATCH . Cryptos are enjoying a mixed weekend with altcoins getting most of the gains while BTC and ETH stay relatively flat. The Sunday/Monday volatility seems to be rather tempered this weekend and it's reasonable to expect for more bullishness if Futures open green at 5pm...

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ETHUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 65% ETH, 35% Cash . * SUNDAY/MONDAY SCARIES WATCH . Cryptos are enjoying a weekend rally as more Risk-On investors shake off inflation and rate hike concerns while continuing to jump back into markets. However, several major cryptos are currently testing critical resistances so we may see some volatility at...

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SPXUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 75% SPX, 25% Cash . *The BLS reported PPI numbers this morning and they followed in the footsteps of CPI by coming in lower than the month prior, from a 1% rise in June to a -0.5% drop in July. This was a surprise because consensus estimates had PPI rising by 0.2%, such a dramatic fall can largely be attributed...

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DXY Daily bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% DXY, 95% Cash . *Treasuries (excluding the 30 yr Bond) and the Dollar are correcting after a bullish summer fueled by supply chain woes and recession fears. Supply chain woes have not been remediated but there is an element of the Bullwhip Effect that should be considered and that is the excess supply that can come...

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ETHUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 75% ETH, 25% Cash . * All US CPI numbers beat estimates this morning and Overall CPI stayed flat at 8.5%, causing Cryptos, Equities, Commodities and the 30yr Treasury Bond to go up. Meanwhile the VIX, DXY and all other Treasuries are falling. Markets are continuing to push the narrative of 'Peak Inflation' and...

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BTCUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% BTC, 60% Cash . * CPI REPORT WATCH . In line with the recent enforcement advancements that were promised by provisions regarding cybercrime in the Consolidated Appropriations Act in March 2022 , the US Treasury Department has banned US citizens from interacting with Tornado Cash (a crypto mixer...