danny_peanuts

danny_peanuts

The chart shows the Inverted Yield Curve vs S&P500 both on logarithmic scale. The Yield Curve start to invert when US start to raise up interest rate, and Yield Curve start to recover when short term rate is higher than longer term rate. It's not accurate to say that Yield Curve is indicator to recession or market crash. Because there still a 1~3 year periods of...

danny_peanuts

There are massive amount of money pumped by the Fed, however these money doesn't circulate in the economy quite yet. So these money basically sitting around in the banks and no one willing to borrow it, spend it. Pandemic totally stop the circulation of money to the lowest level in decades. Comparing the Nasdaq, S&P500, and Dow Jones index to the M2 Money Supply,...

danny_peanuts

No, we are not in super bubble, quite the opposite, we are in super burst already! Just look at the Nasdaq, S&P500 and Dow Jones index in comparison to the M1 Money Supply. We already are right on the bottom for decades. Given the amount of the money being pumped to the economy, we will expect high inflation and high stock growth as well. May be there is some...

danny_peanuts

US has significantly increase M1 supply on 2020 to ease credit by changing definition of broad money M2 to narrow money M1. Now US banking have ample of reserve currency however people refused to borrow money. Japan central has continued quantitative easing for decades buying country bonds and equities. Euro zone to follow on the moderate easing. While China and...

danny_peanuts

The chart compares how fast central bank prints out money and public banks lend out money to support their economy. China prints out more money and Chinese borrows more money than US counterpart. However most of China investment goes to properties instead of stock. Indonesia money supply grows almost the same rate as China, however borrowing is not popular as...

danny_peanuts

Nasdaq had come out as a big winner for the last decade of stock rally. The question is will it be the next winner in the years to come? Or will it drop like a rock from the cliff when the economy start to shake? Will 2008 event will return? If so when will it. So for time being will it continue to raise. If continue to shine, when will it start to dim? Any...

danny_peanuts

Many people thought that high inflation and high interest rate could crash the market. Unfortunately historical data prove it wrong. We have been in high inflation and high interest rate before between mid 70s and 80s. And the market doesn't seems to be impacted by the inflationary pressure. It just keep going up, even though may be the return is lower compared to...