davidb31

davidb31

We have 3 scenarios before us: 1. We go straight up to finish the U. 2. We go down instantly to 95 to finish the H&S. 3. We go up to $104ish to make it more symmetrical then go down for the H&S. So to shampoo or not to shampoo?

davidb31

The most recent peak and trough in WTI crude oil price share a similar characteristic. The high traded slightly above a resistant level and the trough traded just below a support level. These false breaks may suggest that market liquidity is running toward stop loss take-outs, rather than building positions. From a technical perspective, this could indicate a...

davidb31

WTI rose to the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before losing steam this morning. That SMA aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the December-March move. Bears attempted to breach a major trendline last week before prices rebounded, shuffling around the 50-day SMA. The two oils correlation is hinting at a bear move, but traders sentiment is not.

davidb31 Updated 

Let's face it, since Mon 28th Feb, Oil has been in a black-swan bubble, which completely divorces from the gently ascending trend line formed pre the Russian aggression. Within that bubble, until WTI closes above $116 on the daily, it remains still in a bearish trend. Recently, price has formed a 3 consecutive green candles, strong but diminishing, suggesting...

davidb31

Failure to clear the monthly high ($105.59) may keep the price of oil within a defined range, with a move below the $100.20 (38.2% expansion) region bringing the overlap around $93.50 (61.8% retracement) to $95.30 (23.6% expansion) on the radar.

davidb31

I feel that it might go up a bit first. Funny how everybody turns bearish yesterday and today...

davidb31

The bigger trend is still down. The gap is plugged, limit order filled, just one day late.

davidb31 Updated 

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davidb31 Updated 

Not only we descended from a symmetrical pattern, but also on the daily we have a piercing cloud formation - strong signs of an incoming landslide. Regarding the support line/zone at around 96, if you use the conventional 4h tf, you'll see that it has been pierced 16 times since March, and there's already a QUADRUPLE bottom in the last month, so the next time the...

davidb31 Updated 

There's either a bearish rising wedge or a bear flag formed on the 4h, and on the monthly tf, price has just rappelled from an ascending wedge. The 2022 low at 1.0804 would shift into focus if Fibre is heading south, possibly also opening up a route to test the 2020 low at 1.0636. The MACD line recently crossed below its signal line, indicating that upside...

davidb31

The move down is void if WTI could crawl back to 104. No sign of that happening yet.

davidb31

Crude oil prices are trading below triangle support, and bearish momentum is gathering pace with prices below their daily 5-, 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope, which is in bearish sequential order. Daily MACD is on the verge of dropping below its signal line, while daily Slow Stochastics are on the cusp of entering oversold territory. Targets lower include the March...

davidb31 Updated 

Yesterday was gratifying, today I have no clue. We're back inside the triangle so a move is coming before end of next week. My money is a melt down below 96, but it could head up to 110.

davidb31 Updated 

This is just plain ugly. We're still inside the symmetric rectangle and it could head up to 107 at anytime.

davidb31

I see more sideways than down, but it is what it is.

davidb31 Updated 

Sentiment signals down, as does the correlation between the two oils. Might have a pullback before more sliding.

davidb31

Looking at the chart: 1.Monthly: Looks very up, but it could be the 'Bump and Run' pattern, which signals a reversal. 2. Weekly: Symmetrical triangle suggests price could go either way. 3. Daily: Same as weekly 4. 4h: Bullish pennant Conclusion: Inconclusive, could be bullish. "Fundamentals" A: The case for bull: The war Production shortfall from...

davidb31

Today is an up day as forecasted yesterday. Price bounced off the longterm trend line and could not close below 100.