dharmatech

dharmatech

The History of Global Net Liquidity Rhymes Descending wedge pattern leading up to 2020 vs the one forming now.

dharmatech

Here is an approximation for Global Net Liquidity: FRED:WALCL+FRED:JPNASSETS*FX_IDC:JPYUSD+ECONOMICS:CNCBBS*FX_IDC:CNYUSD+FRED:ECBASSETSW*FX:EURUSD-FRED:RRPONTSYD-FRED:WTREGEN This dashboard shows each of these components.

dharmatech Updated 

Six views of SP:SPX : Major support and resistance going back to Oct 2022. Aug 2023 downtrend in standard deviation channels Yields and TVC:DXY Oct 2022 uptrend in standard deviation channels Yields and TVC:DXY (zoomed in) Net Liquidity

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Shown here are: CBOE:SPX Area under the U.S. yield curve TVC:DXY Note that TVC:DXY and yc-area will sometimes track each other. Note the occasional inverse relationship between CBOE:SPX and yc-area. Area under yield curve indicator is available here:

dharmatech

This is an experimental indicator showing put open interest for AMEX:SPY across all expirations. The data is as of 2023-09-28. It's of course not setup to live update. Just a proof of concept indicator.

dharmatech

After PPI yesterday, SPX moved up 1 SD level. Today, it has fallen 1 SD level. Standard Deviation Channel: Aug 18th uptrend

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CPI All Items YoY : Update for August CPI must stay under red line to stay under 3.7% YoY inflation rate. The year ago values increase for the next two reports so the Fed gets a bit of breathing room. Then they're back to playing on nightmare-mode for the Nov and Dec reports. Starting in Jan report, it's smoother sailing for the next 7 months.

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Comparing CPI YoY all vs core. All: ECONOMICS:USIRYY Core: ECONOMICS:USCIR Core is not coming down as fast as all.

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Top chart shows the RRP yield and US01MY. Bottom view shows the RRP. The theory is that, if the RRP yield is attractive, money will flow into the RRP from bills. When RRP increases, Net Liquidity decreases. (Dowwward pressure in the market.)

dharmatech Updated 

What happens if you take every possible US Treasury Yield spread and sum them all together? You get the chart shown on top. $SPX is shown on the bottom for comparison. Vertical lines show where it has crossed below zero in the past. It just crossed below zero again.

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These are based on Max Anderson's Net Liquidity model. The formulas for each band are: (FRED:WALCL-FRED:WTREGEN*1000-FRED:RRPONTSYD*1000)/1000/1.1-1625 + 350 (FRED:WALCL-FRED:WTREGEN*1000-FRED:RRPONTSYD*1000)/1000/1.1-1625 - 150

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SPX / Fed Balance Sheet Credit to @MuzzMuzzington for the original chart.

dharmatech

FOMC Haiku You buy the meeting And then you sell the minutes Prosper very much The timing here kinda resembles the May instance where the haiku didn't work. Thing's would be far more primed for a pump if there had been further downside lower than the June low. So take it with a grain of salt.

dharmatech

The United States Federal reserve publishes their balance sheet weekly, every Thursday at 4:30 ET. Basically, when they add to their balance sheet, this is injecting money into the economy. When they remove from their balance sheet, they are removing money from the economy. This chart shows the recent adds and removes on the SP:SPX chart. There appears to...

dharmatech

Just for fun, projecting out the 2nd fan line to see when it says the earliest we could see $30K (and $20K, $10K just to be macabre). Not saying it's gonna go there. Just showing what a trendline that has been respected leads to.

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Updates: * Super Bowl Sunday Ads * Trudeau enables Emergencies Act against truckers * Rumors that Russia would invade Ukraine on Tuesday did not come to pass.

dharmatech

John Murphy's classic book 'Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets' mentions the 'fan principle'. Going with that model, lines 1 and 2 have formed for Bitcoin. It appears that a possible 3rd fan line is in the works. The 3rd line shown here has provided resistance twice.

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1. Looming MT GOX Settlement 2. Possible GBTC Conversion 3. Possible Bitfinex funds dispersal 4. Executive Order for crypto 5. Looming Fed QT and rates increase 6. BTC price drop on CPI 7. Little price reaction to KPMG 8. Little price reaction to Russia rumor 9. NYC mayor against mining