A rebound at around 7500 is expected to about 9k-10k. The price could go either way from there, but I'm leaning towards more bearish action for another few months.
Any information represented here is my opinion only and not intended to be used for financial gain. None of the information posted here is to be considered financial advice.
The current move up is still incomplete in my opinion. Most likely, we will revisit mid 4000's and will then make our way up to high 5000's. We may even hit 6k. A revisit to the low 4000's support is possible before and after the rally to 6k.
This analysis is based on applying knowledge of support and resistance and Elliot waves.
Any information represented...
Most probable scenarios (most probable first):
Teal : The move up from low 3000's is a corrective wave (currently in the inner C wave) and will terminate around 3300-3400. A large drop below 3000 will follow.
Yellow : The move up from low 3000's is a corrective wave (current in the B wave) and will trend sideways for some time. Look for a 5 wave move either...
All three previous scenarios are still valid. However a complex triangle has formed and has delayed the progression through the waves.
The triangle has formed 5-3-5-3-5 wave internals and should be considered a motive wave. Interpreting it as a correcting triangle is a bit of a stretch, but still valid. Considering this, the probability of the there scenarios has...
A couple of scenarios (most probable first):
1. Teal:
The move down to 3150 is interpreted as a leading diagonal. Once we finish the upward zig-zag correction at around 4600 we will drop below 2000. The character of wave C in the upward zig-zag will be key in differentiating from the more bullish scenario (pink).
2. Pink:
The move down to 3150 is...
This scenario is in play if we break 71 USD:
We are most likely in an impulsive wave 5 starting February 2018. Looking at its internal waves, expect the inner wave 5 to extend to about 80 USD, because wave the internal waves 1 and 3 are almost equal. Other reversal zones to look out for are 75 and 85 USD.
In this scenario, the price action from 2015 to 2017...
The minimum of 3150 from the previous analysis was respected and we have finished wave 1 up. Expect a pullback in zig-zag fashion to 3200-3500 and a sharp run up above 4000 as part of wave 3. Details of wave 5 will become available as we move into wave 4.
If we break below 3150, then a running flat has been traced and a new study needs to be made.
More general...
A leading diagonal is forming which will bottom around 3000 (teal line). A rally up to 4500-5000 should follow in the form of a corrective wave (2).
An alternate count has us in an irregular flat (yellow line), which should also terminate in the 4500-4700 range.
According to Elliot Wave Theory, after a leading diagonal or an irregular flat (in wave 2) the third...
Previous target of 3500 BTCUSD has been hit.
There are a few proposed scenarios (teal, pink and yellow) which all bottom out around the lunar eclipse on January 21st 2019. I believe we will see a relief rally up to either confluence levels of 4600 or 5500 around Christmas time after which there may be another decline before a bull market begins.
A strong confluence resistance zone has been hit at around 7100, which is a good candidate for terminating the upward countertrend, marking it as the high for the next few weeks. Previous support targets of 5000 and 3500 are still in play for establishing a long position.
There is a possibility that the next confluence resistance zone around 7500 will override...
Fibonacci analysis suggests that the large 6 month triangle may be terminating at 5000. The support at 5000 hasn't been tested, so it's a good candidate for a rebound. Otherwise, capitulation may go as far as 3500, the next confluence level down.
Confirmation is just below 5800 mark.
TA is suggesting that USDRUB will complete a countertrend rally up to 70 USDRUB. Most likely, the correction will resume to at least 61. 56 is also a probable target. There is also a possibility that we will go to the 10 year MA at 47.
If we stay above 71 for a few weeks, a new study needs to be made.
BTC may have just finished a countertrend wave 2 in a decline which may terminate around 3500. The 5000 is viewed as minor support as it doesn't complete a motive 5 wave.
Rejection is around 6900.
Two scenarios:
1. Finished an ABC countertrend (pink) and are heading for 5800.
2. In the process of a larger A wave (teal) and will terminate around 6800 before heading down to 5800.
The whole decent from around 8500 is following a Fibonacci channel very accurately. Coupled with confluence zones, especially the strong level at 6000-6100, there is a high probability that we are entering a countertrend which will either:
1. Terminate at around 6800 (pink line). A steep decent should follow to 5000.
2. Terminate at around 6600 (red line). This...
BTC has broken this weeks high trend. Expecting a retest to around 6900 and rally to 7250-7350 confluence zones in ABC fashion. A stop loss should be set just below the trend line.
