dojitrader

dojitrader

This idea started with a discussion with MrTD Interesting to see that price is back up near the top channel line again. At the very least this is extremely low risk as any price action above the invalidation line negates this analysis. The Bat Pattern has been activated but, I'm looking for one more little high about 1.0110/15 to complete a 5 wave C, so , it's...

dojitrader

Fine tuning the related idea earlier this morning I'll take one shot @ 169.15/20 with 35 pip stops.

dojitrader

OR, I'm I just trying to catch a falling knife ? Harmonics are good though . . . Candlesticks help me out here . . . A bullish candlestick pattern will trigger an entry otherwise I'm letting this one go without the additional support of a clear Elliott Wave count.

dojitrader

But, first, there is a small chance for an aggressive long IF Wave 5 equals Wave 1 and the candlesticks trigger a bullish pattern for a low risk entry on the hourly or 15 min chart. The better play is probably the short for what could be a entry into a wave 3. Will be looking for Wave C to equal Wave A if this is a 2nd wave increases the probability of a zig...

dojitrader

So, if this is a valid 3 Drive I would be expecting a drop and pop reversal in the candlesticks - maybe a hammer ? or Bullish engulfing ? This should trigger an entry with small stops to lower risk. Without this I'll probably stand aside and not try to catch a falling knife.

dojitrader

Looking for a flat or maybe a triangle 4th wave long, at the 50% fib for a 5th wave run towards 1.5140. This would also be at the 4th wave of lessor degree. Invalid against 1.5066

dojitrader

If the 3's of an ending diagonal (3-3-3-3-3) continue this could see the normally sharp reaction at the 5th. The only trouble with an ED is the typical throw over of the top trend line. It can be difficult to judge how much will occur. Candlesticks do your stuff !!! No limit order I'll be waiting to see if the candles trigger an entry and low risk stops. A...

dojitrader

Can't say I've ever seen a pattern quite like this. The only thing for sure is it looks very corrective and overlapping - not impulsive. So, thinking the downside trend will resume at some point. Maybe at a Butterfly and another 1.272 extension and measured moves plus, it's showing 7 swings for a possible double 3 in EW ? All within parallel channel lines . . . ...

dojitrader

Wave 5 seems to have extended over the original wave count and may now develop into a deep 2 or B wave correction. The potential Bat pattern adds to the confidence. Clearly defined risk below X as that would invalidate the wave count completely, although, if it remains in 3 waves it could be considered an expanded flat - perhaps. Anyway, below X and I'm lost =...

dojitrader

Looking to add positions to the related 3 Drive pattern that was just too painless. I guess that soothes the trades that are nothing but agony. 5 waves being projected with 5 = 1 and then buying the completion of a 3 wave correction, probably a zig zag or maybe a flat of some kind ending near the 4th wave of one lessor degree. Will not take this trade if it is...

dojitrader

Potential 3 drive with 1.618 fib extensions make this possible 5th wave top an aggressive short potential. Especially when you consider that the market may push above the "Big Figure" 1.0000 just enough to trap the breakout longs {and stops out the 1.000 shorts} before it slams them back below ? Or the 5th wave could simply extend higher ? Well, a small, low risk...

dojitrader

80 pip support zone is larger than I can handle psychologically so I'm hoping the candlesticks really do their job and provide a clear long entry trigger with low risk stops for this proposed end of a 4th wave. Symmetry sure looks good, so, I'm sure it will fall apart as it usually seems to do at the last minute ? Might have to take a small lose and then re...

dojitrader

Clearly symmetrical - So Far - with a confluence of Fibs and Daily support area = Third times the charm ? For a bigger bounce than the other 2 drives. EW suggests that it could rise back to the 4th wave. (3 drives usually retrace to it's origin) Although this proposed 5th wave is rather messy as this 5th may develop into ending diagonal. Candlesticks, as always...

dojitrader

My favorite pattern in it's visibility and reliability. So far there is a decent looking start to the 3-3-3-3-3 Not Perfect of course, that would be to easy too often. If this is just a 5th wave extension we should know soon and if an ED it should finish about 11am/Noon GMT tomorrow. The pattern usually retraces back to the beginning which is also the bottom of...

dojitrader Updated 

The guidelines of alternation in Elliott Wave would be indicating the 4th wave probabilities are a zig zag or a triangle when the 2nd wave was a flat like the classic flat in this wave 2. If I'm nuts, the risk is well defined as a wave 4 cannot enter the price area of wave 1 = Low Risk with Big Potential. .382 fib might be the area for the candlesticks to trigger...

dojitrader

Looking for a 4th wave long and then another 4th wave long at a larger degree - perhaps a triangle to end this impulsive move for an even larger correction. First things first: a small zig zag ending around 1.3080 with low risk with linvalidation @ 1.3045 Hope the candlesticks offer a clear entry trigger with some sort of 3 wave look to this small correction.

dojitrader

From the bottom of what could be 3 ~~ seeking to short the top of the 4th wave in the area of a lessor degree 4th wave with fibs .382-.500. The BIG SHORT comes at the top of wave II. If it is a wave II the potential lies in the 1.0800/500 area where III equals 1 to 1.618 of wave I. Maybe a small long if B wave shows it's hand in a clear 3 waves. My mouth is...

dojitrader

Looking for a potential Flat or Zig Zag to short the c wave of IV. That could be a tough catch, especially if this morphs into a triangle. The Big Trade will be the potential end of wave IV looking for a long entry anticipating wave V beginning around the bottom of lessor degree wave 4 and the .382 fib. As always hoping the candlesticks will help fine tune the...