dtingbudong

dtingbudong Updated 

Uber gapped up (with the markets) to retest a 200-day trend channel it had recently lost, and the result was a failed test. Tomorrow will confirm an abandoned baby, a rare but powerful bearish signal. Trade is void if open is not below today's range.

dtingbudong

I ran a Neural Network on BTC, VIX, VVIX, CMF, and OBV vs the S&P 500 in 2017,2018,and 2019 and applied it out-of-sample to 2021 and achieved 63% accuracy with a 24 hour lag and a balanced confusion matrix. BTC was the most important factor in the model. Of course TV is too primitive to use R or upload a sheet. To put it bluntly: Bitcoin is a leading indicator...

dtingbudong

NOKUSD was in a multi-year uptrend before COVID disrupted things. We have now regressed far below where we were previously, and there is reason to think that a turnaround may be in store. At minimum, we are likely to catch a small bounce here. 1. Bullish divergence on volume-based indicators. With each of these three tests of 8.20, the OBV and Chaikin Money...

dtingbudong Updated 

ES is so far conducting a garden-variety correction within a clearly defined upward trending regression channel (the third so far this year and the sixth since the March 2020 lows: June 2020, September 2020, Late October 2020, January 2021, and March 2021 are the others). The bottom of the channel is around 4000 to 4020. For those of you who bought the dip today,...

dtingbudong Updated 

At first glance, I was excited that the Nikkei futures were forming a 3 hump pattern similar to the one formed in February 2020 before the big dump. then, I started noticing difference in volume / flow (CMF). Back then, the bearish divergence was quite clear, and now it's not all that clear. In fact, that sudden CMF increase looks a bit like bullish divergence...

dtingbudong Updated 

The S&P 500 futures appear to be moving up to the next level - the channel top of which represents 4255 (assuming this happens in the next week). An overshoot similar to September 2020 would take us to about 4350 (assuming it happens soon). Finally, VVIX (which typically precedes the VIX) is not quite at the level that has preceded other recent corrections - even...

dtingbudong

Since March 26, Darden has been in an extended downtrend which just violated its regression channel for multiple trading days. This has all happened despite the S&P 500 rallying nearly 5% to all time highs over that period. Respect the channel, and short with confidence. Remember, we did this a few weeks ago with PLTR (Palantir), and the retail cult crowd was...

dtingbudong

Cardano has made an impressive new high; however, the OBV oscillator is SIGNIFICANTLY below previous highs, and ADA itself is showing signs of weakness today in selling off from the previous high. In fact, other leading indicator assets such as Uniswap, Ethereum, and BNB are also showing weakness, so a general dump in the crypto sector may be in order, and there...

dtingbudong Updated 

Previously, we successfully shorted Bitcoin from 55,700 to the mid 47000s, but now, BTC has shown enough to warrant a cautious long. 1. The 270-Day regression channel has created two tops and three bottoms (17 December, 27 Jan, 25 April), and a pattern of such duration and strength must not be taken lightly. 2. CMF was showing significant bullish divergence...

dtingbudong Updated 

SOLANA has been on quite a run lately. While BTC was making a multi-month low, Solana was pumping towards $50. The hourly channel suggests more downside is in store as this coin cools off from its counter-cyclical bull run. Of course, we could pump straight from here, but I want an optimal setup and that would mean buying in around $41.70 for the next leg up....

dtingbudong Updated 

After more than a month of falling off the previous high in an apparent bull flag (represented by the regression channel), LUNA has broken out strongly on heavy volume and looks to retest the old highs. Long here with targets near the old highs ($22) and the next fib extension ($25.77).

dtingbudong Updated 

After 24 hours of blasting while other coins were getting crushed, Ethereum has finally succumbed with an upward channel rejection. Eth should follow BTC which has a far uglier chart, and thus Eth is in a prime position to short after that rejection.

dtingbudong

Any discussion of PLTR is full of rosy but vague fundamental projections that will supposedly take this thing to $60+. Retail investors are pouring their life savings into it (one guy on Discord was talking about putting his whole 401(K) into 2023 LEAPS). Retail investors do NOT have a good track record in the stock market, and reality is already reasserting...

dtingbudong Updated 

Polkadot sold off quite hard in the past few days, but with other alts moving (see alt composite tracking index) and DOT near the bottom of its channel and with bullish divergence on CMF prior to that, this is a great chance to get ahead of the move like we did with CAKE last week - a trade that has already returned over 20%. Follow it, but this thing has...

dtingbudong Updated 

DOGE is meme coin that celebrities have been pumping, after which it regresses to the mean. Long term, BTC has gained against just about every major cryptocurrency except Ethereum, Chainlink, and Binance Chain; this is an easy short with RSI near 100. With 3x leverage and allocating no more than 10% of capital to this trade, the risk-reward is quite good.

dtingbudong Updated 

American Airlines is one of the weakest carriers based on EPS (-$5.26) and negative debt-to-equity levels. AAL even lost money in the fourth quarter of 2020 which is when air traffic had somewhat stabilized. Smart bears like to pick on the weak, and AAL certainly fits into that category with a steady multi-month downtrend already in place. Bulls at this time...

dtingbudong Updated 

BTC is showing bearish divergence on basically everything. You find a volume-based indicator ... hey, even on-chain volume, the least disputable of all of these ...and CME volume which probably isn't manipulated by China...and it's showing bearish divergence. We had a ton of trouble breaking that middle regression line before last high, and all this terrible...

dtingbudong Updated 

The PancakeSwap token CAKE has sold off its recent highs in a solid uptrend that also sees BTC attempting new highs. OBV is strong and did not decline at the peak which suggests a H&S is not in play. With other alts alternating pumping and selling off, CAKE is an excellent buy at these prices with BTC and SPY surging to new highs. Get on the trend and don't over...