duckwade

duckwade

I was right that today is indeed a buy the news event day. But I was too naive to think Ukraine issue already settled, just look at how many new spikes we had in the last 24 hours. Actually, we even just had one less than one hour ago. So with Fed minutes day resolved in a bullish way, what would be the likely path next? Well, we can review the rally from Monday...

duckwade

Market rallied hard overnight on the news that Russian started to withdraw troops from Ukraine border. After reaching 4868, it was basically fluctuating within the 30 pts range the whole day. Comparing with past pre-Fed fractals, this is actually the most bullish scenario. And if we can hold the same range tonight, it bodes well for a bullish continuation tomorrow...

duckwade Updated 

Market is doing wild swing today, mainly driven by all kinds of news. There is no real direction or trend, and best trade for today is probably intraday scalp. Anyone who tried swing trading most likely would fail, well at least that's true for me. Put that away, let's think about what would be the likely paths for near future. IMO, we are very close to a bottom...

duckwade Updated 

Oh, man, what a day! Even if I list this route on my chart yesterday, if you tell me we are going straight down in 2 days to 4400, I would have my doubt. Overnight market hit 4454.5, 4.5 points from my bottoming range, but then it rallied toward 4520.5, above the 4511 low made yesterday after CPI report. At that moment, I really thought the drop was over, and we...

duckwade Updated 

Today ES showed us what kind of whipsaw can be expected in a B wave: overnight market was holding pretty well, but slightly higher than expected CPI report spooked the market and ES dropped 70 points within an hour. It then spent a little bit more than an hour and reclaimed almost all the loss. RTY even made higher high. Followed by a seemingly routine pullback,...

duckwade Updated 

ES movement today is definitely more bullish than what I had expected, and it passed all the resistance zone of 4510~4520, 4532.5, and 4550~4555, closed at high again, and there was not even 20 pts pullback throughout the day. Hourly 10MA was holding all the time, telling the extreme bullish microtrend is ongoing. Since the low of 4438.5 made last Friday is...

duckwade Updated 

Today whipsaw continues, ES made a lower low than yesterday and completed a bullish gartley pattern at 4456.25 only 30 minutes after market open. It then rallied throughout the day and closed around high. Past resistance of 4510~4520 is breached, above that would be 4530~4535, and ideal target of (b) of (B), 4550. If we can hold this momentum, I would expect to...

duckwade Updated 

Overnight, ES completely reversed the gain after AMZN beat and made lower low premarket, it spent another 2 hours to form a better bottoming structure and then rallied almost all day, except the last 20 minutes before close, where it gave back almost 50 pts. This is typical behavior when ES is at some sort of B wave, 3 waves everywhere, and can reverse at anytime...

duckwade Updated 

Today is almost exactly opposite of yesterday, market trending lower until a few minutes before close, then AMZN huge beat almost instantly reversed all the loss for the past few hours. Also percentage wise, RTY is almost always higher than ES throughout the day, suggesting it does not buy this downward move. This plus the AMZN ER after close force me exit my puts...

duckwade Updated 

ES hit 4580 pre-market, drop 4535 in the morning then rallied toward 4586 just before close. Meanwhile, RTY dropped more than 2.5% from premarket high and only retraced half of that today. This is a sharp contrast compared to last 2 days, where RTY lead up. I always think RTY leads, but RTY is a wild animal and can trick people by fake movement, so as long as RTY...

duckwade Updated 

We have another green day today and ES again close at high, ES has been above the 50% retracement of whole drop. Of course there is nothing indicating a short term reached yet, and as a matter of fact, I still like to see 4580 range hit sooner rather than later. But from past fractal, minimum target of wave (A) is hit with 4550 reached, consider market like to do...

duckwade

We cleared the past high of 4446.5 today and close at high. Currently, ES is sitting around the 100% extension from 4212 low, so many would argue this is possibly where wave c of wave 4 down is done, and we will make new low next. However, downside movement of ES very rarely is doing 5 waves, it tends to do 3 waves, especially when it's not in a big C wave down....

duckwade

This past Friday, ES rallied till EOD just like 02/09/18, I would like to see similar pattern developing in the next 2~3 weeks that bring us to 61.8% retracement at 4580 or 76.4% retracement of 4680 before any significant drop/pullback coming out again. Near term, the resistance is at 4440~4450 range and then around 4487~4510 range. Market will need to penetrate...

duckwade

The ES movement past 4 days reminds me about Feb5~Feb9, 2018, so based on fractal, I would expect we will hit a temporary bottom this morning, which could already be met with the morning economic news boost, or there will be another low but should hold above or reach a double bottom of the low reached this Monday. Either way, I expect we will choppy higher in next...

duckwade Updated 

ES cleared 4570 zone yesterday and reached 38.2% retracement of the whole drop at 4605.5. Also the market strictly follows the fractal of Sep16~Sep20 this year so far, which is also around a quad witching day. My primary view of the market is it will face resistance in 4600~4620 zone, and drop toward 4553~4539 today/tomorrow, then we can start the santa rally...