elefes

elefes

The bull flag has not been invalidated. Election FUD will stop in two weeks. I'd be happy to accept the 120k BTC as a Christmas gift. I had a vivid dream of seeing BTC trading at Nexo for 105k. Thought it was a bug and had been trying to dump it, but they've halted trading. I went to check the price at other exchanges and realized BTC had pumped right to 120k in...

elefes

It's too risky of a trade IMO. I can't imagine USDRUB trading at below current levels in 1-2 years. However, it would have to drop to 140 or worse in 2 years for you to be at a loss with a 20% yield, which would be a retest of previous highs. Sounds very plausible to me. I prefer to stay away and will dump RUB deposits later this year once they are unlocked.

elefes

It could be a giant bull flag forming, but other than that there's not much to analyze. A 15k-wide descending range. Wanna trade? Buy low (50k-55k), sell high (67k-70k). Just, you know, don't blow up before the 2025 bull run. This was written at the end of July when we were trading above 69k: We didn’t quite go to 71k yet as I expected (~70k), and touched 53k...

elefes

Sadly, 67k did not hold. We're back above 61 though, which is good. 1H, 4H are strong. Daily looks bad: below the 21 MA, below ~64k resistance. Weekly is weak until we reclaim 66k+: currently below 9 and 21 MAs, near the bottom part of the range that we already touched the support 5 times. I'm hoping / expecting BTC to continue chopping in a 61k - 71k range...

elefes

Yay, we recovered. Very strong growth after the 3-month long triangle. I didn’t expect BTC to bottom at ~56k, pretty much the exact date and time I wrote the previous post. Whatever I bought at below 61k, I sold at 65k and didn’t re-buy the pullback. Not buying at current levels either, not until we stabilize above the 71k, or go way way down. The H&S idea from 01...

elefes

We’re below 9 and 21d MAs on most timeframes, the only one not looking terrible is the weekly. We failed to hold 60k, there are no supports until like 52k, with more prominent ones being 48k and 42k. However, If you didn’t sell at 67k, I don’t see a point in selling now. We’re -22% from ATH (57600/73777 - 1), that’s quite a correction as it is. Also, I just can't...

elefes

On the one hand, we're still in a clear uptrend. On the other hand, I can't be too optimistic about the fact we couldn't stabilize above the old all time highs. I would be much more confident if we chilled in a 71k to 73k range. Barely hovering over 69k is weak-ish. Crypto Twitter seems to be generally bearish which I believe is a positive sign: we're near ATH,...

elefes

BTC grew insanely fast. Shitcoins are the top-5 earners of the week: dogwifhat, Pepe, Bonk. That's a clear sign that we're nearing the euphoria zone. We're nearing old all-time highs. Conservatively, that'd be a good zone to temporarily close the position and wait out, should there be some pullback. While I'm not sure what should happen for us to see a large...

elefes

S&P 500 formed a double top (4800-ish in January 2022 and now). Now, when I look almost 100 years back in a log chart, I see a few price ranges. The current one is close to the most optimistic overheated side of things. Levels never seen since the DotCom bubble & the Great Depression of 1929. Proceed with caution.

elefes

I left on the chart the scenario I drew last month for the sake of lolz: I did not expect BTC to go another leg higher this fast, but it finally did what it was supposed to do - chill and trade in a range for a month (roughly 41k to 44k). I stacked a bit more at around 41 to 42k range, but otherwise, there’s not much going on. No reason to sell unless we break...

elefes

The last idea worked out well, however, the "buy a lot on 01 November" part did not yet as most of the gains were made in October. As always, it is best to buy BTC when it is the scariest - that is, at 25k when everyone was making ridiculous predictions about how we're going to touch 20k / 16k / 1k. I wouldn't mind a small pullback to around 35k - 36k won't...

elefes

For better clarity, please refer to my prev. idea from 01 sept 2023. This is a 1-month-later update. We held 25k, I didn't go into much detail as to why it was a must hold zone - nobody cares yet. Once I build a history of high quality ideas here (or fail miserably!), I'll be more inclined to reply and/or provide more insights. TLDR for the Tik-Tokers:...

elefes

Arguably we must hold 25k, as a breakdown below 25k would leave us with little to no support all the way down to 20k, or even 16k, and thus destroy the trendline. With generally bearish sentiment, SEC news selloff, halving in less than a year, and an expected post-summer increase in US inflation (as explained by Arthus Hayes in his recent blog posts), I see this...