updating the daily here. The TCF is forecasting sideways trade so I am expecting to see a few days of muted selling followed a choppy rally. The 2 hour (1-3 outlook is ideal to trade these) - look for the post
I have not published for about a week but the TCF indicator is forecasting the S&P is about to chop up and down now for the next month or so. This should be a good opportunity for traders with 2-4 day horizons (uber long term in my world) to make trades in both directions. The Bull biased system is displayed on the price (equity curve below in sub graph 1) .
The uptrend of the Emini is underway but the sudden pop over the past week led to a large drop in the BEAR biased algo. When the gap between the equity curve (blue) spikes below the average (red) it tends to lead to a few days of minor selling.
AMZN has a great run over the past few months but the Bull side algos have seen a trend line break after 300 point series of trade. The most notable aspect to me is that the bull biased trading system has had very little profit over the last month. This tells me stealth selling is occurring. I have placed trend lines on the profit curves illustrate the reversal....
I use ALGOs as an analytic tool because they apply rules the same way so you analysis can be consistent. TSLA has had a good run on the bull biased algo, currently long from 780 on the 14th but generally winning trades last on average 5 days and this trade continues to run without enough upside pressure to exit. This to me is a sign that sellers are in stealth...
The 15 min chart just went flat have had a sold trade (2922-29). I expect the market to start selling at the open and the system should go long on a dip. The short side is not performing which is should be expected but traders can take shorts closer to the open. In the 2 hour chart comment i am thinking the price will trend to 2935-7.
The 2 hr chart systems are now pointing to the market clearly in the chop outlook. The TCF indicator indicates chop will occur 3-6 bars, likely when this short term uptrend ends this am. I am looking for small selling to hit after the open and then to have the market flatten and trade. Both Algos are now in "off mode" meaning the cycles tend to be lower volatility...
Still looking for small selling but the short algo covers on a relatively small winner. The fact that algo covered at a small level (404 points) is indicative of a volatility slowdown and lower targets on both trades. The bull Algo went long this AM at 9335. Both Daily algos are in "on" mode which means that the success of the trades jumps from the 60%s to the...
The next few days should see some chop with an upward bias tilt. I am expecting a pop to the 2975ish level but then some selling hitting. Both the chop systems have flipped into "off" mode and this means the cycles will get longer. If shorting the pop, the long algo is in at 2964 while with exit level around the 2995 level while The Short Algo is expected in near...
This is a quick update for the Emini S&P. The TCF indicator is forecasting a trend based move, with my expectation is for a rally overnight the chop system for both longs and shorts have done well but the price trend is turning higher so I am looking for a rally to kick off the open. This short term trend will exist inside a 1-3 day chop trend (see 2hr comment)
Posted a comment here on the $dollar index. The TCF is pointing to a trending move, which I am expecting to be sell wave. the DXY tends to not go in straight lines so Short counter trend rallies. I will post the 2hr chart which points to a rally in the dollar over the day on wed.
The good news for chop biased traders over the past few weeks have seen great gains on both sides. Bear daily algo has exploded. TCF leading indicator says new trend move coming. Looking for update break
I posted a chart of the bear biased algo, this shows the trades on bull biased system. Both algos have had a solid few days but the TCF, a leading indicator (3-6 bars) says we should see new trend move. Given the weakness of the selling over the past few weeks, it is likely going to be higher. I would play this as buying a dip even though the bull algo has nice 4/4 run
The bear biased algos have had nice few trades over the past few days. I am still looking for upside break to occur so would be cautious on taking trades short. I will post the chart with bull biased long trades.
Short term rally up to 2955-60 then expecting 15-20 point bouncing. 15 min TCF says we will flatten out for the next few hours with chop up and down. I will post 2hr and daily pictures along with Tradestation charts shortly
The Daily picture in BTC is still showing downside. The inside picture (see other comment) is a bit trickly right now but I am expecting BTC to pick up selling. Most traders are bullish from comments but my Bear biased algo is on mode so i am looking a trend lower, to a bottom of a channel.
BTCUSD is tough to call right now. Thsi post shows the 2hr chart which is useful for 1-3 outlook. the TCF is now forcasting a Trend move but both bull biased algos and bear biased of working. (profitable trades). It is tough to get a picture here. Here is where it pays to take short term trend biased trades because traders can wait for a break and then jump on...
The Emini S&P is in a bit of short term no mans land with both Algos sputtering. The last long trade was profitable but the TCF indicator is now looking for trend over the next 2-3 hours and I expect this to be a pop up to the over night highs around 2980. The channel from my 2 hr chart is superimposed on the chart. Buy dips and short rallies for the brave.