flightleader78

flightleader78 Updated 

Gold is now trading higher than the previous ATH at the end of October 24 and is still within the rising channel. This might already be subwave iii of 5 targeting the 3200+ area later this year. That could then mark the end of this bullish trend.

flightleader78 Updated 

My analysis of WTI in early December was good and it did wat I expected, but a stupid stop kicked me out it wave 2. Then got the perfect entry for the short at 80.5 but didn't hold long enough... So what to do next ? Could buy it here at the 0.236 retracement but I'd rather buy at 68.5 with a stop at 67. Always keep in mind there is also politics involved...

flightleader78 Updated 

When in doubt - zoom out On Thursday and Friday the DAX / GDAXI reached a high of 21800. Could this be a potential top ? Looking at the W and M chart (log) the DAX (XETRA) has been trading in a rising wedge since 2003. With reaching the 21800 level, the DAX has touched the upper line of this rising wedge again. The last time was in April 2015. The monthly...

flightleader78 Updated 

Just a quick lock at PLTR price development. This fits quite well into a 5-wave move and the fibonacci extensions. After earnings price hit the 4.0 extension with astonishing precision, but this can be seen quite often with other stocks like AMD as well. Price is currently trading around the 3.764 extension and at a P/E (ttm) of just 534. This will probably...

flightleader78

A very simple chart, just a channel and monthly MACD. Like some other tech stocks the ATH was in July 2024 and price seems to be heading to the lower trend line. If it does, the entire market will go down further as well. So keeping an eye on the monthly charts of big tech is important. The MACD (standard settings) of AAPL, GOOGL and NVDA is about to cross into "sell".

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AAPL might have already completed 5 waves up as 3-wave structures and from here on a correction over many years could be seen. Looking at the chart, it seems that price is heading to the lower trend line in the 200$ area. That could provide support for a move up, which might turn out as a b-wave of the current a-wave correction followed by a even deeper c-wave....

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This is a weekly chart of the NIKKEI 225. The Japanese index has been trading in a channel which was confirmed last summer with the massive swing up and down due to the unexpected increase of the interest rate by the BOJ. After that price continued above the midline and turned lower after the latest interest rate decision earlier this year. Another meeting of...

flightleader78 Updated 

When AVGO shot up after the last earnings it looked a lot like too much of AI hype to me. Drawing this channel explains the move quite well. With the June high and lows in September and November this channel was established and price took off right to the upper limit. Since then it has corrected by about 20% but this could fit quite well in a 5-wave move to...

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SAP has the highest market cap in the DAX (315 billion €) and has had an impressive run since the 2022 lows. Price shot up from 80 to 280 in one steep channel. Looking at the chart since the IPO, you can see a five wave structure that might have come to an end at the upper trendline of the channel. The DAX has dropped by 700 points this week and if SAP starts...

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Like many other big stocks RHM could have completed 5 waves up with gains of roughly 1000% in 3 years. Considering their order backlog, a market cap of around 30 billion is not too unreasonable but the profit margins are still quite low. Demand for their products will remain high, the EU needs to invest in their military to be protected and independent. So a...

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Is it just me or is it weird that even the yield of treasury notes trades within channels and diagonals like stocks and oil ? This chart pattern could be described as a bull flag. Rising yields don't necessarily lead to lower stock prices: But the bigger picture issue could be the interest payments of the US government, which reached a record of 4.4...

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The reaction of price to the lastest earnings wasn't positive and it went down a few fib levels. It was right at the top of the channel and 5 waves since 2022 could be completed. Alternatively this drop can be wave IV of 5 and we will see one more higher high in the 220$ area.

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Looking at this SPX chart of 25 years and the MACD lines getting closer and closer I just can't see why to buy here except for short trades from one week to the next. The MACD is ticking down and it could lead to another or even worse 2022. We could get a blow-off top to 6300-6500, but looking at charts of big tech, Bitcoin, Gold and considering the uncertainty...

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I have been watching STM for a while and looking for a possible bottom. The best I could come up with is the channel shown above. Weekly MACD and RSI could support this: The current outlook for STM in 2025 isn't great, but they are one of the key players in the semiconductor sector and will recover in my opinion.

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We all remember the massive sell-off of NFLX in 2022, it crashed from 700$ to 166$. Everyone who bought at the time has gained 600% profit as price reached 1000$ after the last earnings. The question is now could and should you ask for more ? From an Elliott Wave perspective 5 waves up could be completed and NDX is at least consolidating, maybe even setting up...

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A simple chart with fib retracement of the move since the end of October to ATH. This could be a 5-wave move up with correction to the 0.618 retracement and turn into a bull flag pretty soon. Or it can keep correcting within that channel. Tesla is a stock that is not trading on fundamentals, but on investor sentiment and Elon Musk mixed with lots of fibonacci...

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Intel is still trading within a falling channel in what could potentially be a 5-wave move. Price is still above the major horizontal support established since August, but it would not surprise me if we see another move to the downside to complete wave 5. This would have to be shorter than wave 3, because 3 is already shorter than 1 and 3 cannot be the shortest...

flightleader78

There are many complex charts of SMCI on here, I like to keep it simple. This stock has the potential for gains of 100 - 200 %, but only if there are good news in the next few weeks. As long as there is uncertainty about their accounting and Nasdaq listing, this is a gamble and it could go to 0. Also considering that the indices are at an ATH and struggeling, I...