flyinkiwi10

flyinkiwi10

Same valuation method as used on Horizon Minerals (previous post today). Shows Pantoro to be undervalued, with 80% up-side remaining at current prices and reserves. Who, knows. We will see. My entry shown in blue dashed line and exit point in red.

flyinkiwi10

Hello and thanks for viewing. I tend to write a lot. My valuation is based on a few assumptions; - There are no new material ore discoveries as extraction progresses, - The gold price doesn't rise over time, - The miner will have the 'average' profitability of gold miners of 11% (I use 10%), - The miner will be fairly but not excessively valued vs its earnings....

flyinkiwi10

Started to take a position in NTL in 2022, so was holding the bag for over two years. In 2024, decided to add to my position instead of take a 60% loss. Firstly, because they got a new CEO that appears reasonably competent, and seemed actually focussed of getting the mine into production - which I came to doubt was actually the focus for the previous Management....

flyinkiwi10

Yeah so, my purchases of GOLD in the past few years haven't tracked the gold price very closely. As leverage on physical gold it hasn't been such a good pick. However, I am seeing some signs of a change in price-action. Daily RSI is showing higher lows, while price is testing everyone's patience :) making lower lows. Normally hints at a change in direction is...

flyinkiwi10

If you aren't going to speak your mind, why say anything? Here is the situation; The SPX has a Shiller Price to Equity Ratio of 37.6. There are only two other times in the last 100 years that valuations were higher. 1. Back in 2021 valuations reached 38.6 before a ~25% correction. 2. During the 2000 dot com mania it got to 44.2. After the bubble broke, it...

flyinkiwi10

Trade the range - if you have the patience. Buy under $20 and sell at $64 for 200%+ gains

flyinkiwi10

The ASX 200 is amazingly predictable. From the 2009 low, average annual growth less than 11% - long-term there are better markets to invest in TBH (especially when you consider that the AUD has lost 42% of its value vs the USD in that period). Trading within a tight parallel trend-line (with a few brief times outside the range) for almost 15 years. Price today...

flyinkiwi10

Just looking around the equity markets for high dividend stocks, I found this one doing a correction. Found a convergent zone (wave (C) measuring 100% of wave (A) and a normal five wave extension in wave (C) as well as bullish RSI divergence indicating that a change in price direction is inbound. Recent ratings upgrade and $20+ targets from analysts in recent...

flyinkiwi10

Very interesting new stock with a lot of potential. However, appears a bit over-valued for a silver mine that is around two years away from production. Even if it starts producing, based on its measured and indicated reserves, it may still be a bit over-valued today, even if you discount likely future earnings (my rough scenario anyway). Will reconsider, when /...

flyinkiwi10

Based on history, The relative value of gold and silver reverts between the 40:1 ratio and 80:1. Silver is still above 80:1, so IMO is a good buying opportunity, to leverage against gold. The idea is; hold gold and buy silver above 80:1 ratio and sell silver and buy gold at or below 40:1 ratio. After a cycle, you will end up having twice as much gold as if you...

flyinkiwi10

I'm always looking for signs of a change in trend direction. A good indicator has always been; 1. A series of higher highs in the price-action, with 2. A corresponding series of lower highs on the RSI (for major trend changes or corrections I use the daily time-frame), 3. Ideally, three lower highs on RSI (sometimes you only get two), with the final RSI high...

flyinkiwi10

Thanks for viewing, Medium and long term bullish on BTC. Just short term bearish based on the price-action. Expecting the swing low of 17,600 to remain intact, but some price weakness is inbound. Based mostly on 4hr bearish divergence - higher highs are shown as lower highs on the RSI. At a minimum it is a sign of reducing momentum (upward in this case). Drew a...

flyinkiwi10

Thanks for viewing Just a simple technical analysis of the share price of FMG assuming continued correction from all time highs. Mostly just based on the Iron ore price having lost 55% from 2021 highs and still being 50% (while FMG is only down only 28%) down presently. Mapped out some support / demand and resistance / supply zones. Thinking something around...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing. If you don't believe in Elliot Wave there is still hope for you - please stick around. I also use other TA. So where is BTC right now? - Multi-month price decline since late 2021, - After setting a swing low around 17,600 BTC has made a series of higher highs and higher lows that are contained within a parallel channel quite neatly, - After...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Hello, No big analysis, just trying a new trading style. Demand has turned into resistance, entered after some nice upside wick rejections and a lower high set. Targeting lower TL. I have found that while the outer channel contains price relatively well, a tighter channel seems more appropriate. This is getting into difficult territory to be short, as by my...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing, While I find Elliot Wave difficult to use well in trading, I find it useful in gaining perspective on the market and brainstorming possible moves. You can see the breakout from the 1711.10 and the price channeling strongly. If wat I have labelled wave 1 and 3 are correct (wave 3 does meet an over 1:1 extension of wave 1 and I had a target of...

flyinkiwi10

Too busy to explain fully. This move up from 1680 has confused me many times. For clarity I just re-checked my Elliot Wave patterns - specifically "Overlap Diagonal within Wave C". The move up from 1711.xx wasn't impulsive even though it was very steep at times.

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Hello, It has been a while without posting. Still a believer in Elliot Wave, even though it can be difficult to count at times. Some general assumptions; - A normal 5 wave impulse wave is followed by three corrective waves - only really concerned with the larger scale (A)(B)(C) correction. - Wave (C) is often the same lenth as wave (A) but this isnt a rule, it...