flyinkiwi10

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing, Big fan of silver as a way to gain leverage over an increasing gold price. So where to we sit currently? - After a huge (~+150%) run-up From March to mid 2020 (depending on the chart source - some charts (like this one put the local high at Feb '21) silver entered a period of mostly sideways consolidation. - The goldsilver ratio has swung...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Well, it has already popped. Evergrande is down 90%+ and Country Garden is almost down 60% from 2018 highs and testing 7.36 support. A simple 1:1 extension of the 2018 drop would mean sub-14HKD prices are not too far away... watch for a break of local support at 19.20 for another 30% drop.

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing, Why would anyone be bearish on a stock that has gone up over 200% in the past 18 months? I'm just watching the chart. If you look at the chart you see some concerning trends, mainly; - Volume dropping off since March 2020 as the price increases meant the stock was less and less of a bargain. - Some rather strong RSI bearish divergence -...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing, I am assuming the arrow shows a higher low in price action, I will have to see if this bears out. But, for a minute lets take the rally from 1687 to 1919 as being the first push in a larger secular bull market. There are a lot of reasons to suspect that this is possible including: - Massive Federal and other Central Bank money printing and...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing. Just a super short term trade shared. Local red box was area that a short was entered based on EW. Plus RSI over 70 and MACD showing signs of weakness. Traders tend to still be in a "sell the rallies" frame of mind. Little volume spike recently, but as the traders come on line today, they will likely sell off and/ or enter short. No point...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing, I am not sure how widespread interest in Nickel is, my interest in Nickel is; - It is a valuable metal that is in demand as the world turns towards electrification (Nickel currently has a low proportion of its demand ~3% from batteries and ~70% from steel-making but EVS. Vehicle manufacturers are turning towards much higher proportion of...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Hi, thanks for viewing. I am targeting these levels as an entry point for BTC; between 28,570 and 27, 737. It may not get there... or overshoot of course. So, I will buy some at these levels and watch for signs of support if it reaches that zone... if I can get a higher low with good volume I will buy the rest when I see this. Where to after that? I don't...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing, I get a lot of satisfaction from identifying assets and asset classes that are under-valued. That means looking at some rather hopeless looking charts and looking for potential. Identifying under-valued assets e.g. commodities in chronic supply deficit is also a great way to both diversify a portfolio with uncorrelated (or negatively...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing. Following because of USD holdings and USD denominated assets - including assets negatively correlated to the USD - like gold. USD held as a hedge against weaker local currency and against gold positions. Whatever your personal belief on Elliot Wave, I am not imagining a very clear 5 waves down (labelled (i) to (v), since the march 2020 high....

flyinkiwi10

Thanks for viewing, Wow, some interesting keywords in their business description; - LEVERAGED buyer of CMBS products (as you know, leverage works both ways. To juice gains or to ensure out-sized losses), - ADJUSTABLE-RATE mortgages (I suppose not so bad - unless interest rates increase which to be fair seems unlikely right now), - office buildings, retail,...

flyinkiwi10

Thanks for viewing, I am just posting this to make tracking the equity easier. If you ignore the massive 1 month spike in price and volume (10x volume) that would otherwise invalidate my EW count, the main downward price trend seems to be over. If I average in, I will have to be able to withstand price drops possibly to $3 and keep buying, but after that there is...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Hello, thanks for viewing. This is an equity in an industry facing significant challenges and uncertainty. There is likely to be oversupply of vessels until demand picks up again (who knows when that will be). But, there are multiple technical reasons to believe the main correction has completed and that this equity is sufficiently undervalued to be...

flyinkiwi10

Thanks for viewing, Sorry guys, I'm still forming an opinion on this one. There is a nice multi-year base in place. Multiple coincident zones just below the base, but the wave count is a bit hard to work out. I'm just doing this to keep an eye on it.

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing, I'm not sure I have the time to include my full reasoning. - June 2020 reported both revenue and EBITDA down 7% yoy, which is certainly less of a decline than a lot of businesses - and way less than the drop in UK GDP overall. - Profitability at end of March 2020 was pretty good, and after reporting an interim dividend of ~4.7% (the interim...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing, This won't be a long one. It won't be full of analysis. My case is just this: These small speculative, under-capitalised, marginally profitable gold miners are now extracting a commodity that has surpassed 2011 highs - and looks assured of heading much higher. So, it seems safe to conclude that these exploration and mining companies look set...

flyinkiwi10

Thanks for viewing, I have only looked at the chart and a few details. I was just drawn to undervalued UK stocks after reading that Goldman Sachs views the GBP as undervalued (it is at 35 year lows vs the USD). Also, all the doom and gloom about Brexit will have caused shares to head lower than may be justified. To get the best value, I often hear you need to...

flyinkiwi10

Thanks for viewing, I just did a short-term DXY chart (3-6 months out) which was rather long. So please forgive me if I just drop this, instead of discussing all the fundamental and technical reasons - which I have dealt with before. If you have followed politics / financial news in the last year you will know that the USD is being intentionally devalued. I...

flyinkiwi10

Thanks for viewing. This will just be a short one. My reasons for bearishness are: - bearish RSI divergence (higher price high shown as a lower high on the RSI - at a minimum indicates reduced momentum but normally precedes changes in price direction), - MACD histogram is trending downward quite steeply, - MACD moving averages look like they are starting to head...