fmkatz

fmkatz

Looking at M2 it looks incredibly Inflationary but where exactly is that Inflation? So I had to dig deeper, if you look at M2V, the Velocity of M2 or in easier terms, the number of times that the average unit of currency is used to purchase goods and services within a given time period, you will notice a sharp decline in M2V accelerated by the pandemic crisis. Now...

fmkatz

As you can see this is a channel valid since 1934, only broken by the overvaluation beforte the great depression and the Dot Com Bubble. As we are by now at the top end of the channel or even a little bit above we will face the decision between exuberant overvaluation as in the DotCom Bubble and before 1930 or correct for a reasonable amount back into the channel,...

fmkatz Updated 

We are seeing an slight relief in Coronavirus numbers now so the outlook for next week is still bullish as I see it, but as I see a real risk for the slowing of the january christmas and NYE spike from uk variant there very well could be a new spike of numbers coming in February. On a TA Level I see the dax being at resistance having been strongly supported by the...

fmkatz

You might wanna have a look at DXY divided through SPX (DXY/SPX), i found it to be quite insightful, as you can clearly see a pattern that can be useful to predict a turn in trend. So it comes as convenient, that we are exactly at the bottom of the channel we might have one, two or even, possible but unlikely, three insane rally weeks, but thats it, the Bearmarket...

fmkatz Updated 

Despite the stimulus in sight which I see already pricing in the tech has quite a big divergence from the 200 SMA at the Daily Chart, hence and in retrospective to the times the divergence was this big in the last time I think there is a good opportunity for a short position on the Tech despite it being the, or exactly beacuse of it being the all time rising Tech...

fmkatz

Despite Stimulus beliefs which seem to be already pricing in I think the divergence on Daily Chart to SMA 200 is showing us the need for a little to medium correction. In fact if you look at the shrinking gap between dips and highs before this could be interpreted as sign for something bigger coming but vice versa. That a correction whatsoever is overdue I am...