This is how i'm figuring out the measured move for those who maybe wondering. One of the guidelines for an impulse structure is if wave 3 is the extended wave then wave 1 tends to be equal in duration AND/OR magnitude of wave 5. There is a gap fill at 382.75, measured move is slightly below that. Lets see if this plays out. By no means am I predicting anything...
Going over my counts and spending some time reviewing. Today we invalidated the wave 4 to wave 5 up move. Now it seems as if we are building this move down. Looks like we are finishing wave A/1 and will be heading towards a choppy move up towards FOMC 9/26 Wave B. Key Levels to watch for Friday: UP: 401.53, 403, 405 Down: 393.83, 390.04, 388 Good Luck Traders!!
Here is a few different ways i'm seeing this. This current structure is tricky and so i have to be flexible with possible counts. This one suggests we could be building leading diagonal into wave 1. Looking for gap fill 421 range to finish off wave 1 and rotate into wave 2. Currently looking to hedge short term puts down to 413/414 if we see this 420/421 come...
This last variation is we finished wave B up and now working on building wave C. Wave 1 completed working on wave 2. This is my bearish count that suggests wave C ends around 345-360 towards October/early November.
In this count the larger A,B,C still in the making for wave 4. Currently in wave B with a target around 420/422 range. Then head down to A=C around 400.50
Just sharing my thoughts on SPX. Been rocking SPY however i trade both SPX and SPY. We shifting towards wave 4. Thinking W4 finishes tomorrow because W2 wasn't longer and drawn out sideways vs short sweet directional. So thinking W4 is going to be short sweet and directional. W5 should be finished by this 8/24-8/25 possible Friday. Looking to day trade 4200...
Today's gap down and further push down makes me believe we have the high's in. The tell will be this move up once we finish this W4 --> W5. I took 416 calls at the end of the day on that low. I might have gotten the wrong expiry however we will see. Took 416C 8/24 @ 1.34 Looking for this wave 4 to finish tomorrow Tuesday 8/23/22 and rotate down in wave 5...
This is scenaro 2 where we are building a full 5 wave structure for wave C in this zig-zag. Posted earlier of key area's im watching. This is just to show a second scenario that i can see play out. Good Luck Traders!!!
I have 2 scenario's that i think look the best based off structure in this higher degree wave 4. This first scenario suggests current correction is building a A structure, Monday wave B, Tuesday-Thursday wave C and start wave 5 Friday (ISH - im not best for timing this type) Key area's i'm watching: Upside: 424, 425.23, 426.47, 427.28 (gap fill),...
This is just an update: Looks to be building wave 2 of wave C of wave 4. We could be rolling into wave 3 of wave 3 of wave C tomorrow. Keep watch for a decently directional move. Good Luck Traders!
This is an update: So far this is playing out pretty well. We are building wave 4 through next week with an anticipated low of around 411-415 which is gap fill and area's of support. We created on the 15 minute a wave A down which looks like a 5 wave move down so could be generating a zig-zag down for higher degree wave A. Today's high looks like a B wave...
Just posting an update. Keep an eye out for that 61.8 at 429.82 however if we go further, watching these the two fibs above orange wave 3 just in case. I tend to day trade around these higher/lower area's around targets and reduce swings towards the targets unless very small position sizes. Will be keeping an eye out for 420 puts when we get close to a reversal...
I am having to shift towards my alternate count because price action broke over yesterdays high and has continued since then. I would like to see a minor gap up Monday then pullback with a continue with trend Tuesday/Wednesday. My price target is 430 range (its a range) which is at the 100% meaning = move of wave 1 or extended wave 3 at 161.8 at 436/437. I will...
Because we just broke over todays high, i'm more inclined towards my alternative count. Still building wave 5 of wave c of wave b. I want to see a sideways pullback monday and grind higher tuesday-wednesday. If my days are off, still looking for 429/430 next week. Good luck traders!
This is just an intraday update: Lets see if we get this gap down tomorrow. We could be building wave 3 or wave C. I'm in 400 puts 8/19 again along with 410 puts 8/19 little under .95. I will be getting some hedged 424 calls for 8/15 just incase this is just a pullback to something more. want to see 421 break down by EOD for continuation down. Good Luck Traders.
With ES grinding higher with possible gap up incoming, this count has lower probability as we go higher. final area i'm looking at for this is the 161.8 at 423.44 range. Anything further will bring this count to a very much lower probability. Currently in a couple 400 puts 8/19 that if we gap up will stop out of and day trade the move. Posted on my alt count...
Because the way ES is moving, I showed my Alt count before and thus bringing it up again. The B wave next stop is at 61.8 at 424 and has 429 confluence with fib retracement channel. I currently have just a couple 400 puts for 8/19 I will have to stop out of if we have a gap up and day trade the move. Area's I'm watching: UP: 421, 423/424, 429 Down: 418, 416,...
This is the second variation. This one I adjusted the a,b,c for yellow wave 4. This has the right look. I marked up the confluence from parallel channel resistance and Fib retracement channel 23.6% which is 420.61. Because this is very possible as well, I added the 417 calls that I posted earlier. This is to hedge my 400 puts and if the move goes to far up, I...