fringe_chartist

fringe_chartist

Tesla looks like it's forming an end-of-distribution pattern while Microsoft and Apple have already began to make a small move down. But Tesla was the most volatile during this time. Wouldn't that mean it could form an ascending triangle and breakout? Yes, but this is the unlikely scenario, unless there are bullish fundamentals like an inflation increase, and...

fringe_chartist

AAPL has a ~2.3 trillion USD market cap, roughly the size of size Canada or Italy, the 10th and 11th largest countries by domestic market cap. So which is more overpriced, Canada or AAPL? AAPL shares have reduced about 30% since 2013 from 23 billion to 16 billion. Revenue for APPL has doubled since 2013, from 170 billion to 340 billion. Operating income has...

fringe_chartist

The entire market seasonality is getting a bit cold, risk-on bets are fading. Unless other markets show clear signs of continuation, it's looking like a reversal. Although I think alts will make up a bigger piece of the pie this time, and BTC.D will peak around 60%. Idea is invalidated if BTCUSD makes a huge surprise rally above 65k (unlikely but possible)

fringe_chartist

Accumulation phase(1) set a new low. Test spring(2) is looking like a failure. Will Distribution(3) be a new low? The asymmetry is concerning because asymmetry implies a reversal. Shorting seems reasonable. OR We close(3) above the old high and the idea is invalidated

fringe_chartist

Idea for macro: When inflation is expected to continue, risk-on (baskets of equities, crypto, etc.) and risk-off (metals, basic materials, etc.) markets strengthen, and the dollar settles to equilibrium as volume between the dollar against the rest of the index peaks. When the expectation disappears, risk-ons go sideways while risk-offs plunge and bottom for a...

fringe_chartist Updated 

Pareto's law says that roughly the top 20% of the market constituents should roughly represent 80% roughly of the overall market cap, and vice versa: the bottom 80% of constituents will represent 20% of the overall market cap. When price seems irrational, and higher cap stocks start to represent more of the market than previous decades, and thus are given a...

fringe_chartist

Not only does the market believe in the possibility of tapering purchases, it now ALSO believes in the tapering of purchases. Reverse repo at ATHs, Price:Earnings are now detached from everything. Equities/asset gains now match or exceed M2 inflation rates (real inflation rates) and match or exceed broader levels of of previous market collapses.

fringe_chartist

It's your ball Jermone Powell, time whip out 10 trillion dollars of fake money.