We are witnessing some profiting taking, and for now there's your pattern structure for risk-off markets. VIX also remains in a newly bullish pattern breaking a downtrend structure (although a very weak break and still very early to tell if anything real materializes) but nonetheless a clear break. We are long VIX here, short YM. We suspect trading will remain...
Fear is back - it should have bounced there, but make no mistake. The VIX is going to register new lows after the new swing high.
This won't invalidate until it passes below 15.81 - we think metals are bid here.
Look to get short GBP exotics... I like GBPCHF short the most but many are setting up. The advantage of this situation is that the GBPUSD sits at a good support level, meaning if you can hedge by going long GU and then short some of the exotics. At least that's the simple explanation. Quick note, we are looking to get into GBPCHF and other exotics for way more...
Early signals point to a risk off market in the making. However, should be cautious here. Daily timeframes still need to overcome the key 24.60 barrier. We have seen this before, and markets quickly reversed at those zones. However, it does so far look positive for bullish VIX action.
All 4 durable goods and GDP data points came in better than expected this morning at 830 which was the reason the initial short there was cut and flipped. If those data points were mute or worse than expected I wouldn't have done that, it happens. I expect it to get very choppy now moving into the holidays and also see YMH7 down to 19800. Important to note that...
I like the views both long and short here www.tradingview.com
Bearish turn under DP1 - if you aren't already short it's a bad idea, the market is too strong. However, 19920 is a new strong resistance area of distribution. Again, these markets change quick to the upside.
/YM still looking like it wants to roll over some. Way over extended on the 4H ratio side.
Two very good counter hedges for those with long exposure on /DX or /YM that wanted to either hedge it, or use those positions as a counter hedge to load up long on the next turn. /DX 103.60 was R1 and a ADRH and /YM was at 19910 which was also R1 and an ADRH.