gb50k

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It is tempting to short SPY (or SPX500, ES, etc.) as it violated support at Fridays close. (top) Here is why I am long: Plotting SPX500 relative to the DOW or to the dollar (DXY) suggests that it is most likely to bounce up. Relative to DOW, SPX500 is on a support that has held 4 times over 4 previous months (middle). Relative to DXY, SPX500 sits on a support...

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While the market marches higher (bottom) the ratio SPX500/US30 is in sharp decline. This indicates LARGE out performance of the (safer) DOW index. Open question: Why would investors abandon SPY for the DOW as futures seem to be rising? Good luck.

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The rate of change in the ratio between the Dow Real Estate index and the Real Estate and Housing Dev index provides a reliable indicator for impending losses in SPY. Setting a cut off of approximately 3.5 in the ROC (this can be tweaked) is useful.

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SVXY pays a price when VIX is high (>16).... even when SPY is increasing (see arrows). This is due to rollover but not to be confused with VXX decay due to contango.

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Applying Fib levels to previous SPY crash levels is consistent with a level of 50 in Feb 2019.

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Historic trend lines for SPY, VIX and the ratio SPY/VIX suggest SPY 50 (assuming VIX 100) in the future. Timing is estimated with fibs anchored on past crashes. A simple hedge is to buy Puts on SPY at the lowest strike (70) with a distant expiration date (Dec, 2018 is the farthest right now but these could be rolled, say, once a year)

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The indicator shows $ change in NAS100 futures vs. US30 futures. The previouse trend of increasing change to NAS100 vs US30 has been broken. As US30 may be considered a safe heaven relative to the NAS100 index, the trends breakdown signifies a tipping point in terms of risk.

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A 'bottom wick' can be formed on the monthly chart by having an all green/up week. When combined with the red candle at the monthly level - Creates the dynamic of a 'bottom' where the bears push price down to a limit and the bulls succeed in fighting back and bring price back up - and the bottom is formed. Looking at the weekly chart for SPX or SPY their are...

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Bottom candles tend to have a lower wick. This represents the bears bringing down the price and the bulls overcoming the bears and bringing price back up. Hence the 'bottom' Last week SPY decline lacks a wick. Suggests more Down to come.

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Motivation: Historical data shows how the index ratio SPY/DIA gives insight into different market phases since the Dow is more attractive when risk is high. (ref: www.crossingwallstreet.com ) Daily and intraday movements can be both described and predicted using trendlines on the SPX500 premium over the US30 in dollar terms. Specifically, the...

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value seems to be transferring from bonds to gold. a long gold, short bonds position produces an attractive equity curve. The charts shows dollar value for a combined position of 3 futures: 2 long GC (gold) 1 short ZB (treasuries 30yr)

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combining DOW, SPY and NAS futures can cut down on the noise. still an open question: are we rallying or not. this chart might give clarity before "one index" charts.

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The gold-oil gap appears to be passing through a tipping point. A surge in the long-gold short-oil position could be due to either a gold rally, an oil dump, or both. Chart shows position using one gold future and one oil future but there exists a parallel position using ETF's.

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time to short svxy

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VIX surfs the waves of SPY volatility

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VIX index surfs waves of SPY volatility (HV) this helps visualize the connection between the index and the underlying SPY.

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Almost all commodities are now on the rise in a 1hr time frame. Exceptions: Steel, Copper

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IYM has been perking up but metals drags it down. This suggests: Long IYM shares Short XME using options - a synthetic short (buy the puts and sell the calls - same strike) Ratio of deltas should be around 3 short XME deltas to each long IYM delta