Stay in the price action and risk on while taking four contrarian stances 1 Long USD 2 Long JPY 3 Long oil (the Opec versus traders trade) 4 sell SLV vol and buy DXY
Disrepancy between EURJPY and Nikkei at an all time high, Japan 10yrs in positive yield undoing the carry trade, and a de ja vue of Dec 31 / 22 back on the cards ... Plus the safe haven play.
The way I read this chart is as follows:
GLD is at max inverse correlation with the US10Y . Same for USO which has reversed a period of positive correlation (due to the monetary expansion driven growth) and is also now in maximum reverse correlation. As of this Gold offers a materially better investment profile versus Oil.
SP500 is as well in inverse...
Another interesting one - oil breaking the correlation with 10YR , trade bets on the convergence of the spread but offers as well protection against geo political turmoil (oil up , 10 year a safe heaven) and exposure to a market pivot thesis as the long term narrative should adjust faster than the short term (oil). Inflation narratives that can be perceived a...
Was researching the bio reactor space following the recent results of Sartorius and found that they three key players are Merck, Sartorius and TMO. Definitely not cheap, but the cheapest among peers, with solid fundamentals. A trade to watch out in dips.
Strong Buy signals based on my machine learning / ranking algorithms. Purely machine learning based, but offering margin of safety with strong fundamentals, China exposure and dividend yield.
This is probably one of the most promissing value trades in the gold mining theme right now - despite the beat in production and gold prices, short term pressure is driven by the Greek-Turkey escalations. No impact expected on production - keep buying this spread.
Again based on machine learning but Schneider Electric is a nice CO2 friendly theme versus to VINCI with all this focus on airline travel due to CO2 ...
This is purely based on machine learning - but the mental model also triangulates nicely. The dip of the spread is at a 16 year low, BASF has strong fundamentals with a 5% dividend, exposure to agriculture and chemicals and there are strong components of value investing in this leg of the trade. SAP is loosing share in the cloud battle, has a much higher cost...
