givanse

givanse

Bitcoin hasn't broken out the previous (2021) ATH in gold terms. Assuming diminishing returns, a 75% gain would take us to $183K. A repeat of 2021, considering it was a muted bull market (FTX) with a 150% gain, would take us to $270K.

givanse Updated 

This chart is essentially proxy for the acceleration rate of interest expense for the US government, and has been a reliable indicator of fed pivot for 30+ years as the fed has ensured the US doesn't enter a debt death spiral. To keep this line 'inbounds' they need the middle of the curve to fall ~75bp between now and the 24th Or maybe they'll allow a brief...

givanse

The previous two secular bull markets have seen recessions, major world events and ~20% drops. However, that didn't change the upward trend. If we are in a secular bull market, we would expect the index to continue upwards until around 2033 maybe grasping at 10,000. In the shorter term, we would see a new high in the next six months. Original thread: twitter.com

givanse

This chart shows the common stop-loss touch and bounce pattern. And this happened because I was liquidity. The stop-loss was set at an "obvious" invalidation level, the previous supply level ($20,800). So, right below it, there was heavy bidding. The stop-loss hunters will place their bids just slightly below presumed ask levels.

givanse Updated 

Original idea from @SuburbanDrone This is my proprietary Fed Explosion Model. Based upon Y2K and 2007 experience, this model predicts the Fed will keep tightening until CPI comes down to 4% OR markets explode. Whichever comes first.

givanse

There is confluence with the idea that we could see BTCUSD visit $16K levels (twitter). If that is the case, I would say high 16s would be the target. Possibly with a longer and fast wick mid 16s are plausible. But anything slower would breach the 300gr level ($16.6K at the moment) which would let the next level come into play. That is the 200gr level ($11K at the...

givanse Updated 

The market has been ranging for a while, and everyone is bored. There are many memes on Twitter about the boredom of the range –it is nuking sideways– Multiple traders have run polls about whether we are in a bear market or a bull market. The results are always almost evenly split between bullish, bearish and neutral. However, the bearish sentiment does seem...

givanse Updated 

The channel is drawn to what provides the best fit. In this case, it is the candle close. This is the best fit because the candle wick in Dec 2017 was relatively short-lived; it lasted about 2.5 days. However, the dotted arrow is drawn, considering the possibility that the price might overshoot out of the channel again. Even if it happens for a single day....

givanse Updated 

We have a similar three candle consolidation like the one seen before breaking out of the $20K ATH (Dec 14 '20). This week has just begun, and it's already breaching the ATH from April. There was a new ATH around $67K from Oct 18, but that was short-lived; the candle didn't close above the previous ATH range. So it didn't do much from a market structure...

givanse Updated 

Trading view calculates the market cap for bitcoin and doge. I don't know how the market cap is precisely calculated by them. However, for the sake of exploration, I'm going to assume it is simply taking the available supply and multiplying it by the price of one coin. From there, we can use arithmetic to plot the total supply. market cap = supply * price supply...

givanse Updated 

In grams of gold terms, bitcoin has already bounced off its previous all-time high. So if it can flip the $42K area to support, the next area to look for a new ATH, in gold terms, would be about $68K.

givanse Updated 

The price of BTCUSD keeps rising up, but so does the supply of broad money (M2). So far this year both have grown 227% and 25% respectively. There is more money now than there was at the beginning of the year, 1/4 more. Based on this metric alone, one dollar is worth 3/4 of what it was worth at the beginning of 2020. Today: One BTC is worth 2.27 BTC from a year...

givanse Updated 

If bitcoin were to follow a pattern similar to the 2016-2020 cycle, the target could be as high as $290,000 dollars. If bitcoin were to follow a pattern similar to the 2012-2016 cycle, the target could be as high as $800,000 dollars.

givanse Updated 

3rr 8rr

givanse

There are two decision branches the indicator may take to trigger a buy signal. I've copied the most relevant lines of code below and added comments. I added a visual representation for every single element that exists in those lines of code. The different indicators I add here have educational purposes only. The original script already does an excellent job...

givanse Updated 

Ethereum usually follows the movements of Bitcoin. However, in the last 18 days, Bitcoin has had a massive run while Ethereum has stayed proportionally behind. BTC has gone 75% over is previous ATH while ETH remains 45% under its ATH. Suppose we are about to see a catch up run like in 2017. The gold denominated resistances are 20grs and 33grs. At current prices...

givanse Updated 

Sell volume on the 4hr increased and broke down. The area around $34,800 could be where it stops if it continues to drop. We could potentially close the day with a 13% loss.

givanse

Plots the gold price (USD) for the quantities (grams) identified as support or resistance in the indicator settings. Measuring the price of Bitcoin relative to the value of gold is a way to keep track of its purchasing power. The resistances identified record the bitcoin/gold ratio at the time of creation and continues to track it in US dollars.