gmarignier

gmarignier

RSI and MACD are at interesting level + SP500 is at all time high. A break of the support trend line might lead to a short term 5-10% loss.

gmarignier

Bearish Divergence on RSI + MACD crossover, but don't play it until it breaks 2930 or even 2920 (daily pivot).

gmarignier

Monthly Price above monthly Kijun and Kumo current monthly candle is forming a Doji Weekly Price above weekly Kijun Price in Kumo since 4 weeks, explaining the monthly Doji Daily Price above the Daily Kijun and Kumo Price in Kumo since 4 weeks, explaining the monthly Doji The sentiment analysis is still bullish on the the different...

gmarignier

Bearish elements: Weekly RSI crossing down its neutral zone Weekly MACD negative 2h RSI broke its bullish support Bearish divergence on 2h MACD An ideal trade would be from 2790 to 2720. However we have the monthly pivot in the way around 2776. Proposed trade: Direction: short Entry: 2790 Target: 2640 Stop: 2870 Reward / Risk ratio: 2 The...

gmarignier

Price is breaking its monthly support, RSI is about to break its support and MACD to crossover and go back to a negative momentum. Proposed trade: Direction: Short Entry: 10400 Stop: 10500 Target: 9400 Reward / Risk ratio : 10

gmarignier Updated 

On the daily chart, we just broke the uptrend line that was supporting the rally. On the 2h chart, we're just under the the weekly pivot + MA 50 + previous breakout level which make this level an ideal candidate for taking a short position. Please wait for the shorter term uptrend line to be broken before entering position. If we break above the $2870 level,...

gmarignier

If we count waves according to Elliott Wave theory, we might see a final 5th impulsive wave going up to the $3000s. Since we had a 3rd wave extension, the amplitude of the 5th wave should be around 100% of the first wave. This coincides with the double top that formed at $3123 beginning of March. On the other hand, there is the $3000 level that got many price...

gmarignier Updated 

Today we may see a perfect bull trap setup, making a new high while breaking the 61.80% fib level. This bull trap should squeeze a lot of short positions out while comforting the bulls they're right pushing the market upward. If I'm right, both sides will get hurt by this setup.

gmarignier

I'v just made an Elliott Wave projection of the S&P 500 with the hypothesis that the Wave 2 will retrace 61.80% of the Wave 1 . As you can see, the market may go as low as $600 (lower than 2000 and 2008 lows), which seems very unlikely. We can therefore make 3 potential scenarios out of this analysis: What I've called Wave 1 is an ABC corrective pattern and...

gmarignier Updated 

RSI will likely going to retest its 2 weeks uptrend support and may also come down to the 50%. This would make sense right before earnings announcements.

gmarignier

Technical Analysis shows we are on the edge of a trend reversal: RSI 730 x 4h is about to break its bullish support Price is about to break its uptrend support + weekly pivot + 4h tenkan + weekly kijun This could be explained by fundamentals of the economics going wrong. In particular, May future contracts on WTI quoted negative for the first time in...

gmarignier Updated 

If the 4h candle closes below $2770 (4h SSB + 4h Tenkan), price would likely plunge inside the Kumo to meet its Kijun around $2648. By doing so it would also break the uptrend channel that support the rally since the end of March Please note the concomitance of RSI and MACD that are close to show bearish signals. Those bearish signals on the 4h chart might...

gmarignier Updated 

For the first time, we are starting to see multiple concomitant signals announcing the end of the rally: Weekly pivot point is being tested RSI 730 is breaking its support trend line Multiple divergences on MACD showing sellers are taking back control over the market ⚠️ Wait for the 4h candle to close before selling this market. To be even safer, you...

gmarignier

Last time RSI 730 x 1h broke its trendline, we got a trend reversal. We are very close to break the RSI support trendline, which would be make a strong bearish signal close to the 50% (neutral level, would act as a resistance if the long term trend is bearish).

gmarignier Updated 

Russell 2000 is likely to head down to the lower side of its parallel channel, with a potential target to 1140 (1h & 4h Kijun).

gmarignier Updated 

Euro Stoxx 50 is forming a nice cup & handle pattern on the 4h chart. In case of invalidation of this pattern (break of the handle support around 2850), it would likely head to its Kijun around the 2730. You could put your stop just above the resistance level of the pattern around 2900.

gmarignier Updated 

On the 4h candle chart, we can see the range of candles is very narrow along the small decreasing channel, showing the some sort of consensus around the price of the VIX. We can see the RSI also evolves in such a channel. If the pattern would come to break, the VIX would probably come to test the Senkou Span B ($50) of the Kumo which is one of the strongest...

gmarignier Updated 

I identified a strong buy signal on the 4h and 1h chart after testing the support formed simultaneously by the Tenkan and the Kijun. Target is the resistance formed by the SSB and Kijun on the 4h chart. Buy signal is confirmed by the RSI that has made a great bounce over its neutral zone on the 4h timeframe. Please note this bounce occurs in the context of an...