goodguy

goodguy

Although the DJIA and the SPY keep making new highs, the XLF hasn't quite made a .618 correction. This in itself would indicate some weakness and indicate that when or if a major bear market develops it may be a big loser. The way I see the price action from the 2009 low to now is a A-B-C correction with the B wave the form of an expanding triangle. Using this...

goodguy

Here is another way of looking at the shorter term pattern in the USD. There is good time symmetry in the head and shoulders pattern which some say is important. Sometimes after the breakdown there is a retest of the base which would fit with my earlier post from today. If correct the potential near term is about 93.

goodguy

Crude oil by my view is in a corrective pattern which is very unpredictable with lots of back and forth action. The daily chart (not shown) is developing a strong negative reversal in the RSI. But the 2 hour chart shown here has a positive reversal suggesting a higher price to come before a major down move. The near term action looks like a triangle. So my best...

goodguy

Since my post on the dollar about 2 weeks ago the dollar has dropped as suspected. It is now approaching a channel support line and the 2 hour rsi is oversold so I would not be surprised to see a bounce here. IFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF my count is correct the downtrend line and level marked .1 (about 96.97) should act as resistance. If they are violated then its back to...

goodguy

On my last post of EEM I noted it may still go to a .78 retracement which it did. In the process it has developed a potential bearish divergence in the RSI daily. The negative reversal remains as well and together this is often (but not always) a bearish combination. Plus a longer term support line may now become resistance. Take care. This one likes to jump and...

goodguy

here is a possible count of USD. Just a update from a week ago for anyone who is interested. . The other option is that we are forming a contracting triangle. This option out if the level labeled "1 down?" approx 96.17 is exceeded. Have a great day

goodguy

Last Thursday I suggested that EEM may be about to fall but wait for sign of reversal. Friday's down action wiped out all the gains in EEM for the week producing a nice shooting star weekly candle. After a large rise this is often a sign of reversal. Some authors suggest that one way to trade this is to short with a stop on any close > than the high (in this...

goodguy

IWM 2 hour. Promising start of the day for you if you are bearish on IWM or EEM. Here is my updated shorter term view of IWM. IF correct the final short wave up (.05) is a series of overlapping five a-b-c waves as sometimes occurs supposedly after a long trend up. (Frost and Prechter pg 50) . A form of rising wedge. We'll see. For now I'm bearish. Take care....

goodguy

Short term the emerging markets are on a tear up. But from this longer term chart you can see they are in a long term downtrend. IF IF IF this count is correct then we are ready for possibly a fast and furious fall over the next few months. You may want to watch the action for the next few days to see if at least a short term reversal is forming. ETFs :2x bear...

goodguy

Short term the emerging markets are on a tear up. But from a longer perspective they are in a downtrend.. IF IF IF this count is correct then we may be ready for a fast and furious fall. You may want to watch the action in the next few days to see if it looks like at least a short term reversal. 3x bear etf is EDZ Warning;: this index can be very volatile so...

goodguy

Somehow, I don't know how, there are ten folks who want to follow my ideas. I thank you for being interested. I just love charting and hopefully my thoughts will be helpful to you in the way you trade. Here is a update on GDX (nugt). It corrected down to b more than I thought it would. Interesting to me is that even though there was a negative reversal in the ...

goodguy

This is a follow up from my longer term chart previously published. I think there is a good chance we are at the top. However bears having been saying this for about 2 years. So of course needs confirmation. Take care. Goodguy. Sorry my numbering does not match up with my previous charts. The (4) on this chart was 4 on previous. Doesn't change my position on...

goodguy

Looking for the dollar index to be going down further and likely much further long term. May well see a bounce at the bottom of channel however. Looking for FXE and ULE to rise. Take care. Have a good week.

goodguy

Follow up from yesterday.

goodguy

If interested also see my older post and the other post from today. IWM down about 2% so far today.

goodguy

Also see my older post and my other post today if interested.

goodguy

Also see my long term view if interested.

goodguy

All predictions are just guesses as you know. Frequently wrong I might add. But I personally like to anticipate but usually wait for a "sign" in price action to act. (ie candlestick pattern, trend line break, etc). We have a long term positive reversal in the RSI (rsi to new low but not the price) combined with a shorter term rsi bullish divergence (price lower...