gottimhimmel158

gottimhimmel158 Apr 14, 2020

After making a lower low on the large decline and bouncing at the Red Fib's 0.786, the NQ now approaches an important level. This swing test will play a big role in determining whether we can sustain an overall uptrend; or, if we reject, the the new trend is down. Note that we're approaching two important fib levels: The Red 0.236 The Yellow 0.786. I would bet...

gottimhimmel158 Apr 14, 2020

Multiple rejections of prior swing tests on Soybeans suggest lower. My first target would lie at a modest -2%; but we could see much lower if we break below the low. This is a 4 hour time-frame, thus don't use this chart as a super-long reference.

gottimhimmel158 Apr 14, 2020

I've written several ideas now about BTCUSD and ETHUSD going lower. But this time, I want to take a shorter timefraem (the 4-hour) to show how the latest Fib retrace suggests lower on ETHUSD. To see how, look at how price first rejected the 0.618 of the latest swing, and now rejects the 0.50. Both failures suggest lower - in the near-term around $148.50.

gottimhimmel158 Apr 14, 2020

I'm looking to target the bottom of the next swing (about 100-120 points higher than where we are now) on the ES. This is a good place to take some long profits, because it's the bottom of the next swing, and the 0.618 fib retracement of the large move down. After that, we could reject (and move lower) or hold the 0.618 and go test the 0.786 (the top of the swing).

gottimhimmel158 Apr 14, 2020

Oil is currently trading around the 0.13 fib of our latest untested swing down. The 0.13 and 0.886 fibs, respectively, are often the last chance for price to hold a level and make a higher low/high. Here, Oil could find support around $20.5-$21, which would make a nice higher low. If Oil goes below this swing, then I would look to buy lower, around $18-19.

gottimhimmel158 Apr 14, 2020

Wheat futures are currently retracing an upthrust. This upthrust failed to make a higher-high of the prior move. Because this upthrust failed to make a higher high, Wheat didn't enter into an uptrend. Therefore, I'm looking for a healthy retracement of our latest move.

gottimhimmel158 Apr 11, 2020

After a multi-year uptrend on AAPL, we see some signs of weakness. After the large decline from a few weeks ago, we've had a relief rally. But liquidity remains low in the previous range (lower), and we could see a corrective price return to that range between the 0.50-0.618 next week. Were we to do that, you can see how the head-and-shoulders pattern would form....

gottimhimmel158 Apr 11, 2020

ETH/USD has been trending down for a long time now. And you should beware of the slippery zone below $80.

gottimhimmel158 Apr 11, 2020

The USD/CAD just made a strong rejection at a long-term lower high. Because of this failure, I'm expecting at least a return to the 50-line (average) marked on the chart by the purple line. Recent strength in commodity currencies (NOR/CAD/AUD/NZD) provides confluence for this. > Numerous factors suggest that commodity-currencies (NOR/CAD/AUD/NZD) will do well...

gottimhimmel158 Apr 11, 2020

The GBP/JPY has been in a downtrend for many years. But as we've approached the long-term lows, we've seen some signs of strength. It's hard for me to say that the GBP/JPY will reverse and ultimately head higher, but I can say that I'm expecting a least some strength in the short term. From a fundamental perspective this would make sense, because the Bank of...

gottimhimmel158 Apr 11, 2020

The AUD/USD recently made a long term higher low. That means that the downtrend failed to break previous lows. Because of this failure, I'm expecting at least a return to the 50-line (average) marked on the chart by the purple line. Recent strength in commodity currencies (NOR/CAD/AUD/NZD) provides confluence for this. > Numerous factors suggest that...

gottimhimmel158 Apr 11, 2020

The EUR/AUD just made a strong rejection at a long-term lower high. Because of this failure, I'm expecting at least a return to the 50-line (average) marked on the chart by the purple line. Recent strength in commodity currencies (NOR/CAD/AUD/NZD) provides confluence for this. > Numerous factors suggest that commodity-currencies (NOR/CAD/AUD/NZD) will do well...

gottimhimmel158 Apr 11, 2020

The USD/CHF began trading lower for years, rallied, and now we're in a very tight trading range. But as with many of the USD/X pairs, we can see large areas of low-liquidity below price. That means that if we trade into those areas, we could see a serious markdown in price. To see what I mean by low-liquidity on the chart, look at the yellow box where price...

gottimhimmel158 Apr 11, 2020

Bitcoin has been losing levels ever since we peaked out at $20,000. When you zoom out, you can see that every rally has failed to gain new highs on the bigger time frames (1 week +). Further, when you look on the monthly level and above, you can see very little liquidity below $3,000. And as we all know, price typically hunts areas of low liquidity. My best...

gottimhimmel158 Apr 11, 2020

After an impulsive move up on the USDMXN, I'm looking for a (relatively) modest retrace to the top of the previous range on the USD/MXN. This is an 8% decline. But as you can see on the chart, the decline is modest relative to the move up we just had. > This retrace I'm looking for is in confluence with general dollar weakness following a $6T liquidity stimulus,...

gottimhimmel158 Apr 11, 2020

As with most of the USD/X pairs, the USD/JPY pair shows price constriction following a failure to gain an ATH. What you can see on this chart is the large area of low-liquidity from 80-100. This area of low-liquidity is indicated by the large impulsive bars, which didn't give much opportunity for traders to buy and sell in that area. My belief is that should we...

gottimhimmel158 Apr 2, 2020

This 15 minute chart details 2 Wyckoff structures in rapid succession on the 15 minute.

gottimhimmel158 Apr 1, 2020

Wyckoff Analysis: 1) Both soybean and wheat futures rallied alongside the market for the past week or so. Now, they've both failed to make new highs and distributed for a few days. I like continuation of the longer-term trend.