hardforky

hardforky

Earlier in the year I forecast where I thought the market might bottom out. Predicted ALT heavy losses. Predicted Stabilizing BTC I've been away working so trading has been sidelined besides a cheeky large but failed buy on XLM at 0.179 that just missed the 0.18 bottom :( but I'm now considering investing. I'm still expecting a quick crash but I think we have...

hardforky

We dipped under $6k, ALTs are beaten to a pulp. Target B at $6k is a reasonable entry point that I think will be revisited regularly in the future if the market goes south and the longterm 5/5800 reversal target C is still a strong possibility with support at $5k but I've adjusted my strategy to buy the crash (XLM, BTC) and hit target D: - Target D: Target is...

hardforky

- Plan A is still definitely in play but I'll only buy BTC on the break - 30% - Plan B is 4th touch - I was looking for a stronger signal, ETF Fud to happen earlier in the structure, RSI on the daily to bottom out and a better formed falling wedge at 6500 but I think we are just short of expectation so alternative plan in play. This looks more inline with a...

hardforky Updated 

This is shaping up quite nicely for a Long and following the correction trend (despite some sell off). Daily about to hit RSI bottom. Textbook iH&S reversal a week ago. Expecting MFI to develop divergence on the 4hr. Interesting bot micro buying now we have reached an attractive area. Some ALTs are showing signs of life. ETF lambs are now roast dinners. DotCom...

hardforky

The Dotcom bubble lasted 2 years and the trend (with a decent amount of creative licence) offers striking similarities. The DC trend is an aggregation of a lot of different stock and a number of factors would have impacted the trend that would be very different to BTC. Interestingly, if there was any connection then it suggests the bear is done. Just for fun, Hard Forky

hardforky Updated 

Approaching upward trendline which has historically caught a falling BTC. ALTS are pushing bottom resistances and getting close to the 110bn market cap target Trouble brewing in traditional markets. 7k might offer support but expecting to watch our approach to the line to consider buying back in. Expecting the MM to break the line temporarily to deliver a nice...

hardforky Updated 

Expecting this to hold and long. If it breaks down we retest bottom trendline. HF

hardforky Updated 

Whilst some sentiment has turned bearish I think we are in a holding pattern right now until ETF news break us up or down. Expecting to hit 7900 / 200MMA. Expecting the momentum to reverse up once the daily has reached bottom. Localised volume is good imo - see MFI Expecting major moves on the 2nd. As noted I'm holding very little now although a roll of the dice...

hardforky Updated 

Acting a support - Minor selloff thus far so I'm expecting it to hold here at the 0.5 FIB and BTC to push back up. What I'm most interested in is the ALTS. As noted in the last idea, despite the Coinbase op I dropped out of my XLM position and just played out my BNB which I've been sitting on for 4+ days. I still have some BTC. I suspect BNB will continue to...

hardforky Updated 

ALTs bottoming out and poised to potentially break down as folks jump onto BTC (47%). I'm not convinced the ETF will happen but if it does everyone is expecting a pump. Sad to say but typically I laugh at the 'moonboy' charts over the last 6 month with lines pointing straight up but I'm horrified to think for once (!) they might be right and there may be a gold...

hardforky

Despite the push MFI suggests volume is not present after the sell on the 20th. Expecting retrace. I've moved the down trendline to ignore the peak at the beginning of April - aligns better with current sell pressure. Will adjust if we shift up to the 7,900 mark. I'm taking a little risk on the expected retrace with my XLM holdings but happy to take some profit.

hardforky

Currently looking at crypto playbook strategy and considering impact on my holdings. - Create buyers - Identify big news story, buy ALTs: ETF - people don't understand it but promises the moon. Perfect territory to create liquidity. - Energise the market - Pump BTC and hold the line - Cash in - Dump the ALTs into FOMO, cycle for 2x days - Next move - assess sell...

hardforky Updated 

I went long following my last post re: iH&S (where I actually did some research :)) - Invested in ALTs - Perhaps a little early to be in ALTs but I think money coming in to be in USDT or FIAT so I'm expecting them to continue to rally rather than sucked dry by BTC - there is little juice left in them anyway. Weighted towards XLM - despite missing the initial...

hardforky Updated 

Volume plays a crucial role in the Head and Shoulders Bottom, more so than top. With light volume on the pullback suggesting profit taking rather than heavy sell pressure and CMF and OBV indicators remaining positive it suggests a high likelihood of a breakout. Reviewing the structure on the daily the volume trend, indicated by the Chaikin Money Flow (a version...

hardforky

I think we all expected the drop to here but there is also some fear about a deep drop to 4800 / 3k. If we close today lower than this mark then i think BTC is in trouble but I still expect us to bounce around the 6-7.5k mark for a few months. Daily RSI suggests a little more to go but unsure whether this will crash and form a deeper bottom. If it does I'm...

hardforky Updated 

-Indicators look like there will be a short term correction. -H&S formation will close off and there is a good chance it will go up with a similar formation in April. Volume looks ok but who trusts the exchanges right? -Concern is the ALTs have been dumping. BCC in particular is looking lackluster. Lack of interest from the weekend worriers as the WC and TDF...

hardforky Updated 

Typically seen at double tops, my guess is it is part of a manipulation where price inflated off a 'genuine' bullish move. Low bearish activity to draw in buyers and then a sell off. Volume might come back in but I'm out for now Hard Forky

hardforky Updated 

Simple MFI divergence (bespoke length set to 30 at 2hr) - Accumulation occurring before the expected events to turn bullish. Next - Similar pattern in April 7th (the weekend) Expecting to run along the bottom side of the channel then drop come Monday. - Watching MFI for confirmation of this - drop (in volume) while RSI remains high. I'll reset and compare (length...