henkybaby

henkybaby

Two subsequent accumulation phases. First on chaotic with a poor volume profile, too short a Phase B and eventually an failed mark up phase, abandoned by the COs. Probably also caused by the various Black Swan events around the same time. Second (re) accumulation phase is more 'by the book' and if all goes well, we are already entering the markup phase after this...

henkybaby

As it says on the tin, an analysis to establish whether the current bottom would fulfill the Wyckoff criteria. Volume is a bit hard to read, as BTC went through 3 black swan events in a row (LUNAUST/3AC/FTX), of which the latter closed the second biggest exchange in the market, which certainly impacted volume. That said, the principles still seem to hold. We now...

henkybaby

By no means a Wyckoff specialist, but I have dabbled in it a fair bit. Critiques and improvements welcome. We are so addicted to short TFs with crypto that sometimes we may forget to look at much larger movements. Did a quick Wyckoff chart looking at the entire 2018 till now. Just for fun I added EW to this (I hate EW) and I would expect a long drawn out 4 till...

henkybaby

I know I have mentioned how much $BTC loves the 886 once or twice. Turns out the top was a 1.886 extension and we hit the 886 of the pitchfork. My expectations are more towards the green path, as I just do not see us mega-recovering from here. Patience is key. Don't rush in before you know what's what. So that would mean ranging for a few month, followed by a...

henkybaby

As you can see, price returned to the range. Most indicators turned south and since volume has been dropping ever since the sell off in early March, things aren't looking very rosy. Does that mean there is no upside at all? No glimmer of hopium? Are we, in fact, all going to die? To me it isn't particularly bearish or negative if we correct here, fill the CME...

henkybaby

Wishing (operative word) you all a very nice last week of 2019 and hopefully some recovery in 2020. Would not hold my breath, but hey ho... You never know, right? Could not have painted the tape better myself. If true, picking up the short term long and then wait in cash. Salient point is that I consider the breakout in late April 2018 to be a failed upthrust....

henkybaby Updated 

This is not a crystal ball prediction of what BTC WILL do, but one of the possible paths it could take. The assumption in this scenario is that we are experiencing a longer term consolidation before attempting a move to a new ATH. It seems completely counterintuitive that BTC would run up right now, with the ecosystem still not being fully regulated (i.e. no...

henkybaby Updated 

IOTA setup. DO NOT JUST COPY IT, but look at it and see other charts. It is only worth it, IMHO, if it retraces to just above 40 cents, and that could (!) be a nice entry. If you're smart, you wait to see it bounce first, for a slightly lower profit, but less risk.

henkybaby Updated 

Nuls looks strong and if the bottom is in (as it seems to be) and we look at SHSL, the first target (the 236) was hit with perfection. Waiting for the 382 and 618 to be hit next. Of course, if NULS is a real winner, we would not stop there. We should think more in the line of 1.272 or 1.414, but let's start nice and easy. Volume is rising together with price,...

henkybaby

Please look at the related idea link below to see the full version, which is done on the BLX chart. This is just a placeholder for the people only looking at BTCUSD.

henkybaby

So, I consulted with my psyche, read some tea leafs, did a Tarot reading and talked to my imaginary friends, and this is what came out.... Of course, nobody knows. However, it is extremely naive to expect a bull run any time soon. Even great news like BAKKT would not cause one at the moment as there is no need for a rise in price. Don't think they have to buy a...

henkybaby

Probably a more realistic scenario for BTC is not a quick recovery - no fundamental reasons for it - but a long period of accumulation following the period of distribution that was 2018. You can choose to trade the chop or you can pick the long term view and buy low and forget about it for a few years. If you think you are a trader but want the price of BTC to go...

henkybaby

Although in crypto, anything is possible. See how nicely the April run copies the current pattern, if you eliminate the highest peek. We may have had a failed 5 (like in feb). Always the RSI had massive bearish divergence off the peak of the swing (long term movements, so look at the highs in December, March, May and now only... We will have to bounce off the 6K...

henkybaby

So much depends on how the market for crypto develops over the next years. I doubt we will see a new ATH any time soon. We need to reset and accumulate for a long time before we can make another attempt. Meanwhile, I would not be surprised if we went through a new period where BTC is relatively flat and lower than today. The market is definitely not the same as in...

henkybaby

Just a bit of weekend fun.... Or is it? In my humble opinion we need another test of 7.3xx to strengthen that support. May even have a bull wick to 7.1xx. Preferably with the daily RSI closing below 0.30. Have a great weekend.

henkybaby Updated 

Pretty self explanatory. Just a snapshot, looking at possible indicators that we might be back on track. Let me know what you think. Observation about volume vs price drop comparison came from someone posting some of the most down to earth and sensible stuff here. Linked below. Also, I have no idea how to remove the MA strategy tester, but I just use the...

henkybaby Updated 

Slight adjustment to earlier ideas where I doubted whether BTC would have the strength to drop all the way to the 8K range. The strength you say? Well, yes. Having BTC waiver around the 11K range, seemingly more nervous than a cow in a butcher shop, was not a sign of strength. It made me feel the market was protecting BTC and in a way that may have been true. It...

henkybaby Updated 

Yes, this could be the break out of a triangle and be the sign of a recovery back to 13.5, but that does not mean we are 'out of the woods' just yet. There is still room (some would say 'hope') for a final correction. This is not because I or others are 'haters' or want to buy BTC cheap but because a deeper correction (or completion of the pattern) would be better...