Historically, shorting the 10 year JGB was called the widowmaker trade. Yields have trended down for decades in Japan and many a brave soul has tried to call the bottom in yields. Surely the recent move from 1.10% to .72% added a few more souls to the list. RIP
YtD Sector Performance corroborates higher rates ( TVC:TNX ).
Top performers show real economy strength, AMEX:XLF , AMEX:XLE , AMEX:XLI and AMEX:XLK (55%
holdings in megacap/AI w great balance sheets that are less sensitive to higher rates).
Note performance of AMEX:XLF v AMEX:KRE , and AMEX:XLK v $ARKK...
These are rates trades.
Individual stocks...
DXY consolidating below multi year key levels.
Nice bounce along with rates after strong 2/2/24 jobs numbers.
Breakout likely accompanies higher rates, lower IWM, and lower emerging market equities.
Updating Jan 2 post after jobless claims
Surprised we saw such a big move after claims
Highlights extreme market positioning for cuts this year
Higher crude supports higher rates move. position hedges middle east volatility
NFP tmrw is wildcard
Remember NFP is wildly volatile
Prefer buying Feb puts as defined risk trade
ZN currently at technical support and rates...
ZN1! Upward Trend Tested
Price action breaks trendline, fails to recapture, and settles at support ~112'05
111 next key level
Higher oil supports move lower/higher yields
Long Feb Expiration Puts define risk thru various economic events (NFP, CPI, Fed)
XLI Breakout with $130 Target
XLI tends to have big sloppy consolidation trends over 3 year periods
Then it breaks out for 20 point moves higher
XLI recently broke out above $111 August highs, retested, and continued higher
Chart has ridden 9dma higher since early Nov
RSI stretched short term
Would like to see consolidation here at highs before next leg...
CMA, CBRE and NDLS have consolidated at key levels.
Interesting technicals for an asymmetric short term long position.
All benefit from lower rates.
Fundamentally, all reported weak results in MRQ.
Noodles long term chart indicates more structural company issues.
Currently, there are dozens of charts with similar setups.
To a large extent, they are all a rates play.
Love to see charts consolidating at prior key levels.
Prior high in July 2023.
SPY pausing at 4600 with 6 weeks of gains.
Last 6 week span was in 2019 when SPY notched 13 of 15 positive weeks.
SPY gained 13% in those 15 weeks.
It has gained 13% the past 6 weeks. It was due for a pause.
Call spreads or bullish put spreads can be an efficient trade if one...
Seasonal trend rhyming like Dr. Seuss
Historical smallcap strength thru mid-Feb
Pennant pattern consolidating below $180 level
20dma > 50dma
$180 is key support/resistance level in 2023
$184 then $192 next resistance levels
Reassess/cut position below $175 support
