holeyprofit

holeyprofit Updated 

I think there's a chance this could be a bull trap in SPY and the rule here would be the more aggressive the rip the sharper the drop. This is all coming off a big support level. It does have to be respected if we don't drop here a low or a range may be coming. But if this is a bull trap - a big blitz will come. Positioned with a bunch of short term OTM lotto puts.

holeyprofit Updated 

I think SPX may be in a rally before breaking a really big support. If that's the case we could see a capitulation swing to 5500. I've built up a series of short term lotto bets on this. Betting on a weak close to the week and big break of the lows.

holeyprofit Updated 

Let's do a full top down analysis. There's a lot of chatter about this and that why BTC is rallying and selling, but let's take a step back and look at the full context of the TA. Because here a simple bit of logic - if the TA forecasts were drawing the chart before the news, the news is not as important at the TA. The thing that has already told you what would...

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I've explained the full case for this in the below idea. Short case here is the 76 fill. Using this to load up again on crypto shorts for a 50% dump.

holeyprofit Updated 

SPX appears to be in a downtrend. If we are, then the optimal trades should be shorting the 76 retracements. One fiilling now. Shorts here.

holeyprofit Updated 

Previously I pointed out the MSTR possible topping pattern at the 4.23 and spoke at length about how this pattern tends to predict a revisit of the 1.27. This 1.27 move is always a crash and in a pattern like this tends to come in at around a 76% drop from the high. Now MSTR is heading into the 2.20. If this level breaks we usually have a period of...

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If it all comes to pass Saylor was just a troll who stuck to the bit, I'd feel this made a lot of sense given he tends to say things that are either trolling or insane. And I'd like to think more people listen to a troll than an insane person. Anyway, up review of his latest advice to sell a kidney rather than selling BTC, I'd like to announce my plans for...

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Bleh I got out my longs too early. This was the move I originally positioned for. Anyway, this was exactly the move I was looking for to take a sizable attempt at the crash trade. I really hate shorting into drops because if you get it wrong, things like this happen. But I really love shorting into things like this because if you get it wrong then you don't...

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It really is looking icky out there for crypto. During this selling we've seen the most nominal of bounces. Look at the SOL sell off relative to the previous break, for example. Big bounces previously, this time it's just leg after leg of selling. This selling is really surprising in the context of a bull move but would be entirely consistent with what we'd...

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Tried to knife catch ETH twice and both times hit trailing stops for modest profits. I think I'll give it one more go and then write it off as misadventure if it does not work. The case for a rally here I think is quite good. It's looks horrible. Everyone is talking about how horrible it looks. The care free attitude has faded and we have bear mania setting...

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While in the 100K range I posted various different possible paths for 100K rejections, based on the 1.61 extension inflection and how we tend to act at that. 1.61 levels are always a spot to be careful. They can pullback a little, a lot and they can even mark full blown reversals. Sometimes 1.61 break and produce strong uptrends. There's a mix of things that can...

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Excellent few trading weeks,. During this time we've done over 30% profit on low risk (for context, our max drawdown to get that is less than the SPX drop of the high, and we've done 3 times the annual SPX average in a little over a week) with the best trade coming yesterday paying close to 3,000 on OTM daily puts. But I feel the tides may be turing. We maybe...

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Did a little switching between possible trade plans while we chopped but I think the first one I put out is likely to be the actionable one. Low isn't quite 77 but it's very close. The 93 - 95K bull trap would now agree with a typical 76 correction. I went long a basket of cryptos. I'm a rip seller, but I think there's good speculative value at these levels...

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I've not really seen all the things I'd expect from the rallies out of the low to signal a bigger reversal. We are on good support levels. The odds of a bounce from this area I'd consider really strong but if we see this level failing with only a shallow bounce then this can continue to sell hard. Personally, I think BTC will tend to move similarly to SPX. SPX...

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I've made a series of bearish posts on crypto over the last months and had my fair share of feedback on what people are doing and expecting. A lot of you can't be doing too well right now. Perhaps it's time to take another think through why you are doing this and is you're ready for the worst case outcomes. This isn't a gloating post. Many of my peers get...

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If you draw a fib from the high to the low of the 2022 drop in MSTR, you'll see we have now completed all of the fibs of this swing. In this post we're going to take a detailed look at two things; 1 - How a trend typically forms heading into a 4.23 extension. 2 - What typically happens at 4.23 extensions. Everything we cover here will be generic rules for...

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In my previous big bear break analysis of BTC I gave the area we trade in now as the last wobble before the break. First rejection to 90. Wobble 90 - 88. Capitulate under there. We have the drop and the wobble. Now we'll see if the break is legit.

holeyprofit Updated 

I think crypto has recently made an important break and this will be telling later but everything has a bit of a "Too easy" feel about it now and I think we might bull trap. Trying longs for a possible ABC.