holeyprofit

holeyprofit

As a prereq to this post it would be good to read my post on SMCI. In that I link to all the real time forecasts in SMCI of the methods we're using for the NVDA forecast. And somewhat lay the groundwork for this post. Click the post to read in full. ===# So let's start with the big overview. NVDA for a long time has been trading inside of the risk zone for...

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It is a common assumption that higher interest rates naturally slow economic expansion and cool overheated markets. However, the historical record over the past 50 years tells a more nuanced story when it comes to bubbles. In several major crashes—the dotcom bubble, the U.S. housing bubble, and the Japanese Nikkei bubble—a pattern emerges: monetary authorities...

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The drop in bonds took them down the 76 retracement level and this is where we're stalled out, at least for now. Action in this area is consistent with a head and shoulders - and if that pattern is in play then we'd be into the rally in bonds now. Something that's always worth noticing is when there's a lot of talk of something dramatic happening in something...

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Got another good chunk of the rally taking our net SPX long earnings to over 20% for the year on low risk (For context, our max DD is about 1/4 of what SPX is down this year). I still would prefer to see 5800 for me to take a real big swing at the short (because I know at 5800 even if I am wrong I'll generally get some reaction to size down a bit in risk) but we...

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I first joined this site under the "HoleyProfit" username in 2021 to give my warnings of potential bear markets. Obvious bear setups forming in the meme mania and I also though this would extend into the indices given a bit of time. I was a bit early on the indices but over the following months all the tops were made and the drops came to pass. Late 2022 I...

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I'm overall a bear but I think we'll probably make a new high. I've explained previously how a new high does not annul the bear thesis since there are various spike out patterns. Let's now talk about the unsustainable nature of what we're currently seeing. First things first - trendlines going up at angles of over 70 degrees is not good! 35 - 45 degrees,...

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BTC is currently retesting the area is made the first big break from. If we reject from here, it's usually pretty easy to map out the next important levels, since we generally trade down to the 2.20 fib of the failed rally. Around 40,000 in this instance. This is a real make or break point for BTC. If we see a rejection here, then there's a strong chance this...

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Although I regularly have made bear forecasts on various things, I've never made a forecast of something going to zero (or as good as) before. It's something that's outside the scope of what my strategies are designed to do. They're based on trend development ideas and actually I generally tend to get fairy bullish in tight zones on things when they are around...

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Where we're most likely to be in the general trend structure now is fairly subjective. We came up off the butterfly support mentioned previous which is a great start for the bull move but we're also still well inside of bull trap territory. If we have a low or a bull trap forming, should be a big spike here.

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Here's the case for a crash. You may have noted I can, on occasion, be a bit of a bearish guy - but I don't actually use the word "Crash" all that much. Not all bear setups are crash setups. Even when they will be, a less dramatic bear move usually happens before a crash. The times when there's actual crash risk are low - but we have a confluence of them now....

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The market is fast and ATR is high so I make sure I have plans to both sides so as not to be caught out, but realistically I've done hardly any trading since the day we dropped 6% and the rallied to retest the high. That was the last day I took big positions (longs which hit trailing stops for 300 points) and since then I've been mainly watching. Spectating...

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I'd been hoping to see a bit higher for a higher RR short and bank a bit more on my longs but today was sketchy. Ditched all my long positions and pivoted short into this rally. Perhaps this was all a big butterfly pattern. If it was, sickening drop comes next.

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Analyzing the Multifaceted Risk of a Deflationary Bust in the 21st Century United States Scene setting; =============================================================================== Shifting Focus from Inflation to a Latent Deflationary Threat =============================================================================== For decades, the dominant...

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Massive intraday pop today but it did not manage to advance much past the last high. The size of the move today means if we had a big one day rejection of it that would now be a limit down day. Which this specific thing does not have to happen (could down trend over a few days) break the low in this setp would give a strong case for limit down days to come....

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I had a fair crack at being bullish and it was profitable for a while but last attempt ran my entry levels. We're back to retesting them now but I've ditched all my longs other than super lotto calls. If might turn out that big W move was just an ABC. That 6% down day was wave 1. The failed new high was wave 2. If those things are true, I think you're going...

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I made a full pivot on my bear position while we were 6% down on the day into the end of last week, switching to long positioning at 5150 and adding a couple times once the first resis levels broke, now I'm starting to get ready to try to position short again into a move a little higher (5550 or so). My bias at this point is fairly neutral. As a trader, it...

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I wanted to give an overview update for those who've followed my macro thesis over the years. I've used various different things to support it but when it's come to my thoughts as to when the idea has failed I've always thought the only thing I really use for that is the big 4.23' of the 2008 crash. Since 2019 I've used the thesis big fib levels will foretell...

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During the run up and repeatedly around 100K I spoke of the different risk setups in the bear move. I think there's a good chance these are passed for now. Contingent on sensible stops under the low, I think this is probably a good spot to get back in for a passive trade. Targeting retest of highs. Will update if plans change, otherwise- simple stuff from here.