holeyprofit

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Based on conventional wisdom the SPX monthly chart looks super bullish with the big wick. I want to explain how this can be misleading. For some "Creds" on the idea, I've attached a post made at almost exactly the low where I forecast the wick and spikes while stating this could be inside of a bearish setup. In the bearish setup, we'd often get bad news around...

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We did really well today with lotto puts, hitting over 2,000% on the OTMs taking near the high of the day betting on new lows - but I want to start this post by stating nothing significant happened for bears today. I've been explaining recently how this sort of reaction to the level we were at would be most common. There are times when the low is made now. As I...

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As some of you may know, I have a bit of an interest in how trend moves have historically formed and failed. I am interested in the subject generally, with me having put a fair amount of time into just understanding the basic timeline of historic events, reading the different studies on market hypothesis' and checking how these perform or fail in the fat tail...

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I've recently posted the implied breakout plan if BTC can get through the 1.61 zone. The expected strength and levels of this move are important to map in at this point and especially important for bears to understand because if we break then the move can happen with no big pullbacks. In the event of the 1.61 break, that's when we tend to really see the big...

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Which type of move we're in is hard to determine at this point, but if we were inside a classic bull trap we'd have to trade down to 5500 - 5400 from this zone. It'd have to be a wick rejection on the monthly candle. Which would mean we'd have to dump over 7% in the next 10 days. These things may or may not happen, but the odds betting on them are awesome.

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I've recently posted various different bullish considerations for breakouts because given the macro context of where we are, if these are made they could be extremely strong. However, at the exact moment in time we're still trading right at a major resistance level. We trade at the 86 fib. Historically, SPX pulls back from here about 80% of the time. Usually a...

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A lot of the underlying TA analysis to support this is contained in my other post about the 4.23. It's recommended you read that first to understand context. Click below; This isn't an analysis post. In this post we won't be dealing at all with the idea of if you should expect, plan for or take steps to protect yourself against bear markets. We're going to...

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We are at an incredibly interesting and unique point in SPX. I am fascinated to see how this ends up resolving. Based on everything I know, these things predict extreme trend events come next. First let's take a moment to qualify the idea the 4.23 is going to be important. The idea of using a line generated by a multiple of a swing that happened almost 20 years...

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Inside the general zone I have marked in here is where the 4.23 / spike out range of the 2008 drop was. The 4.23 is a massive inflection level and when we get to a 4.23 three are usually one of two things that happen. The trend either drops by usually more than 50% - or the trend goes onto double in a manner far faster than the previous occasions. It's...

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BTC has a current top on the 1.61. Heading into 1.61 fibs I always tend to lead with a bias of a reversal because if it happens it's massive and if I am wrong I'll usually make a bit of money in a short term reaction off it anyway. If the 1.61 has a reaction and then later sustains a breakout - that's a very different situation. After clean 1.61 breaks is the...

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It's really surprising to see SPX rallying again today after the 86 fib hit - with the drop off it holding basic trending conditions. This doesn't happen very often. When you look at all instances of this in SPX history you'll find about 80% of the time it drops much more from here. Whether it's a bull or bear move overall. In this area there's a lot of risk...

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BTC bulls have been very excitable recently but BTC has not yet done anything outside of a common bull trap norms. The rally to 95K was perfectly inside the scope of a correction, see below idea; Now we're into the biggest test area so far; We have a possible butterfly (corrective pattern). We have a possible 76 retracement (Corrective pattern) We have a...

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As a prereq to this post it would be good to read my post on SMCI. In that I link to all the real time forecasts in SMCI of the methods we're using for the NVDA forecast. And somewhat lay the groundwork for this post. Click the post to read in full. ===# So let's start with the big overview. NVDA for a long time has been trading inside of the risk zone for...

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It is a common assumption that higher interest rates naturally slow economic expansion and cool overheated markets. However, the historical record over the past 50 years tells a more nuanced story when it comes to bubbles. In several major crashes—the dotcom bubble, the U.S. housing bubble, and the Japanese Nikkei bubble—a pattern emerges: monetary authorities...

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The drop in bonds took them down the 76 retracement level and this is where we're stalled out, at least for now. Action in this area is consistent with a head and shoulders - and if that pattern is in play then we'd be into the rally in bonds now. Something that's always worth noticing is when there's a lot of talk of something dramatic happening in something...

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Got another good chunk of the rally taking our net SPX long earnings to over 20% for the year on low risk (For context, our max DD is about 1/4 of what SPX is down this year). I still would prefer to see 5800 for me to take a real big swing at the short (because I know at 5800 even if I am wrong I'll generally get some reaction to size down a bit in risk) but we...

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I first joined this site under the "HoleyProfit" username in 2021 to give my warnings of potential bear markets. Obvious bear setups forming in the meme mania and I also though this would extend into the indices given a bit of time. I was a bit early on the indices but over the following months all the tops were made and the drops came to pass. Late 2022 I...

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I'm overall a bear but I think we'll probably make a new high. I've explained previously how a new high does not annul the bear thesis since there are various spike out patterns. Let's now talk about the unsustainable nature of what we're currently seeing. First things first - trendlines going up at angles of over 70 degrees is not good! 35 - 45 degrees,...