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If you draw a fib from the high to the low of the 2022 drop in MSTR, you'll see we have now completed all of the fibs of this swing. In this post we're going to take a detailed look at two things; 1 - How a trend typically forms heading into a 4.23 extension. 2 - What typically happens at 4.23 extensions. Everything we cover here will be generic rules for...

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In my previous big bear break analysis of BTC I gave the area we trade in now as the last wobble before the break. First rejection to 90. Wobble 90 - 88. Capitulate under there. We have the drop and the wobble. Now we'll see if the break is legit.

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I think crypto has recently made an important break and this will be telling later but everything has a bit of a "Too easy" feel about it now and I think we might bull trap. Trying longs for a possible ABC.

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SPX made a bit of a bounce off the support levels but it's not shown the strong properties I'd have expected to see in the bat D leg or the C leg I spoke of. All trailing stops on longs hit. If we can continue to break out to the upside I'll probably have to buy breaks with tight stops but I think the more likely looking setup here is we make a new low. If a...

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In my initial mention and entry at the low I posted the Elliot ABC corrective pattern. Then I remembered we live in the age of eternal stop hunting. Upon some further consideration, I suspect if my bear thesis is correct we'll likely see a new high first. Probably the short being 6160. The difference between the ABC and the bat D leg does not matter at this...

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We have a nice 5 leg drop so far and now we're current threatening the double bottom. If we fail to make a new low today I think we'll trade 6080 again. Picked up longs and lotto calls today. Would love to see this bounce for a short. Out my shorts accumulated during the drop.

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I'd say we're now at the point where BTC bulls have the best chance of a low. We're filling a bullish butterfly and if all is well and good with the world this can moon. However, the failure of a bullish butterfly in this situation is a strong foreteller of a crash. There are a variety of ways a 1.61 can fail here. The immediate fail one usually has us slam to...

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SMCI has now completed all the general stages of the Minsky bubble. It made the rally, it made the top, it made the capitulation and then it made the mean reversion. Big win for the efficacy of the Minsky model. Let's now run through the stages as they happened. Because after the fact, it's easy. Everyone sees it. To benefit from a bull market you need to...

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To be honest, I think the only thing someone has to do to make a working theory on the halving is to look at the coefficient between SPX and BTC. The 30 co during this "Cycle" has been over 70%. Which is higher than the co of BTC forecast and actual price move. This coefficient would drop to around 0.5 if BTC trades 10 - 20K lower (which would also annul all...

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I made a couple attempts at buying BTC. One just before the spike over 100K. Went up for a while and hit a breakeven trailing stop. Secondly I tried into the head fake low we had recently but cut that for a small profit yesterday. In the bull setup I'd have wanted to see a much cleaner bounce off support. Seeing a range around support and indices trading into...

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A decision in SPX has to be due soon. For 4 months now it's barcoded at the same 1.61 general inflection zone. From here I find we typically reject or we trade to the 2.20. Both of these would be a 8 -10% move - it's just a question of to which side. SPX has started to shape up a lot like a break. If the bear thesis is correct it needs to be evidenced by a...

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A while ago I flagged up the various different topping patterns we have in crypto alts. There was a little more stop gaming (Nothing is ever easy)but these now trade typically around 50% off the high. Today we met the first major pivot point for the bull trend with us reaching the levels one would expect to see in a typical correction. A break under 140 -...

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In a previous post I flagged up the 1.61 inflection point in BTC. After barcoding in this zone for a while we now have the early signs of rejection of the 1.61. In this type of setup the 1.27 becomes pivotal. Either we hold this area (with a small spike under) as support and then we rally to the 2.20 fib or the failure of this level is the failure of the...

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The big bear candles filled all my short targets and I'd set some pending orders to buy into a following spike. We did get a big bounce off the buy entry zone but I find it a bit suspicious for a possible bull trap. If it is, this is the likely area it ends now. Exited longs and took some shorts yesterday at 6040. If this was Elliot waves, would forecast a...

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MSTR has funded Bitcoin purchases with debt. In this piece we're going to look at how some of the terms of this debt can potentially cause issues if BTC prices decrease. This isn't talking about a margin call sort of event for MSTR, rather it's looking at the risk of terms they could be under in deals they've used to secure capital loans with BTC as collateral....

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SPX made the top off the 2.61 and today on the news of rate cuts it slammed to the implied target level for that. Hit targets on a lot of my shorts today. Have some extremely deep OTMs still running but these are a nominal part of my risk and just there to benefit from a super rejection of the macro 4.23 fib. In terms of nearer term swing assessment, we're...

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BTC made a low on my long entry, ran up into the first area I expected resistance. I'd expected this to just be an intermediate resistance and then pop but still trailing stops to even on longs. Best practice at resistance. Ended up hitting stops at even. I do think that looked like a legit 1.61 break though. Would pick up a 76 correction if it's offered in the...

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The JPY interest rates come out soon and this might cause a big move in the Yen. Yen is on major supports and my bias has started to turn from always bearish (via long USDJPY) to feeling rather, potentially, bullish on the Yen. Something I'd love to see for a trade entry would be a massive move into the resistance levels on the news. Maybe some bad news for...