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ETH filling the 76 retracement of what would be wave 3 if this was a downtrend. Projected full EW if the pattern plays. Optimal entry levels now. We'd typically be inside the end of the blow off here in a bear pattern.

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The big W spike could have been an important top for BTC. In times we have topping patterns we usually see the retracement levels hold 76/86 and then reject. When this happens we often seen wave 1 of the reversal in the obvious break. Wave 2 is the "Return to normal" bull trap (76 correction). When these are in place and waves 3 and 5 come, these tend to...

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Concurrent with the indices being at major inflection points crypto has broadly also filled major inflection points. Let's look at the different setups. First we have SOL in the main chart. Inset is the BTC high before the 2022 bear market. Different in a few ways but both the same general idea of a nominal spike above the previous high that fits inside of a...

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The other day I posted the confluence of resistance patterns in alts. They are now down 10 - 25% depending how much of a gamble the bet was (My idea is if the price starts 0.00000 then there are numbers, this is probably a gamble). Let's now map the typical downside break path. We're going to use the norms of breaks of 1.27 - 1.61 zone. 2.20 - 2.61 zone and a...

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SOL has a big pending butterfly reversal. Here's the typical things we see if and when there is a butterfly reversal. The first drop is usually consistent until it takes out the low of C. This is a breaking of the uptrend but it will usually setup a bull trap. There will be a parabolic bounce. Some chop. Second parabolic and then reversals typically come...

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Big W structures are all over the market. Harmonics are probably the most useful thing I know in terms of accurately predicting the important inflection points in markets. When there are harmonic reversals, they tend to come in essentially right on the nose (with a bit of stop hunting) and the failure of harmonics as a reversal is typically a strong trend...

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We'll touch on all the main concepts of the thesis covered here in this post but it's already extensively covered in the below related post. For full context it's best to read that first: My betting pattern through these fibs is always the same. I'm always interested in fading moves at the 1.27 - 1.61 fibs. If those break I am always looking for strong...

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I have a related post in which I've done most of the heavy lifting and proof of concepts (showing the real time implementation of the model on the SMCI bust) for this. www.tradingview.com This post's main purpose is just to have a post to specifically track the failure of the setup in NVDA or to update on the different stages of the model through the decline is...

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The classic bull trap pattern comes when we have an initial sell off. Some sort of retracement of that and then a failure to make a new high forming a capitulation pattern. Everyone knows this pattern, it's the classic "Return to Normal" in the bubble template. However, we also have modified versions of bull traps that make new highs. While this seems...

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Over the last couple years SMCI has done a speed run through all the phases of the Minsky model. Ending with a near perfect expression of all stage. Let's go through the steps one by one; First - the macro trend was starting to run out of steam when we tagged the 4.23 (As so often happens). Next we had the classic fake crash and then final spike out,...

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If you draw a fib from the high to the low of the 2022 drop in MSTR, you'll see we have now completed all of the fibs of this swing. In this post we're going to take a detailed look at two things; 1 - How a trend typically forms heading into a 4.23 extension. 2 - What typically happens at 4.23 extensions. Everything we cover here will be generic rules for...

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Firstly, apologies for lack of updates here of late. I've been side-tracked with real world events with limited time available to do online stuff. I have to admit I also find it rather disheartening when you post on TradingView 1/3 of comments tell you not to be a trader, another 1/3 tell you not have to have a view. Then there are a few good ones and the ChatGPT...

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I've explained my BTC thesis is depth and discussed my entries into the proxy bets of COIN and ETH shorts last week. Another one I have been wanting to short for some time now if MSTR but it has the pending harmonic and it had not hit the 1.61 yet. Until that is hit, there's always a chance you short and it goes parabolic immediately and then tops a bit over...

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I don't track bonds all that much, but as a general rule when I see scores of people all talking about the same thing (Which they do not normally talk about), I suspect that idea might have gotten too popular for its own good and look to see if there are any obvious fade patterns. I looked at TLT a while ago and seen the possible head and shoulders. Have just...

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I see social media awash with the posts about the BTC breakout. We are close. Very close to a legit breakout and if it comes, I'll retract a good amount of the ill talk I did on the halving theory (Not all of it, I still think assuming flawless cycles on 2 events is silly) - if I am wrong, I'll change my stance. However, if this is going to fail we will be into...

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This post is going to take a look at all of the instances in BTC history of there being a major breakout (This is doable, it's not as many as you may think) and compare the action in those breakouts to the action we have now. Let's first define the action we have now. We can argue all day over different patterns this can be called but there are a few things we...

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I've been consistent in my net bullish bias on USDJPY since 150. The TA made sense and at the time it seemed silly to me that all of a sudden absolutely everyone, with no Forex experience, all suddenly were entirely certain the USDJPY was going to crash. I've been a Forex trader a long time. Seen a lot of people come and go. If the game was as simple as look...

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I've been generally bearish on BTC a while. Usually buying supports (As is my contrarian style) but on a swing basis I think the general space looks weak. Follow through on this rally would likely change my mind, but if it is weak ,then we'd be at the end of this rally. I've mainly contained my bets on crypto short to COIN, ETH and a few other alts. I track...