holeyprofit

holeyprofit

Scaled up shorts massively in the rally but I am starting to suspect this is going to be a failed bear move. Done a lot of stop trailing/profit taking into the drop. Have a long bias if we see supports holding here.

holeyprofit Updated 

I've been super bearish indices for a while but heading into the 5000 area in SPX I am becoming increasingly bullish. I think in the extremely bearish setup we bounce to 5500 and if we are actually making a big major top, then it's viable we swipe at the highs a few times. Liquidity ... and all that. This could potentially be a long time of choppy action...

holeyprofit

Making a low in the general area in which we trade now would be highly consistent with a bullish trend development. If this is the low around 5200, then I think it's quite likely we see a new high. Profits should be locked in on all previous bear entries given. If the local downtrend breaks here, the bear move is likely over.

holeyprofit

Anyone of a bearish persuasion always runs into the same issue when we rip like this. If you know bull trap formation, you know they form like this. It's always tempting to fade- but if you are objective about whether you'll be right at all as a bear and also consider the different style of bull traps, you have to be aware of the risk. Because your idealised...

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I think the odds of this turning into a spectacular short are unusually high for indices but even if so there could be some massive stop gunning to come first. I've a big bearish bias into a rip but it would likely be exceptional rally if I have the idea right. Picked up some longs targeting 5800. Ideally looking to make some profit and use it to bankroll the...

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The swings of the week so far have created a giant pending butterfly- which may be the most important setup we've seen in SPX for a long long time - certainly the most important during this drop. A butterfly here in its book context is a bearish pattern, but if you follow my work you'll know I always say harmonics are binary decision levels. If they work, the...

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As everyone knows, indices move on a predictable 4 month cycle - known as the "Huffy cycle", and this is programmatically built into markets are Donald Trump switches from being "Huffy" (Down moves) to "Less Huffy" (Parabolic organic growth moves). Donald has been huffy lately ... so we ALL KNOW what comes next ...! Are you mentally prepared for the next...

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Bitcoin trades on a critical make or break level of a big bullish butterfly from the topping arch. This tends to be an imperatively important pivot point in a trend. In the strong trend the butterfly is an ABC correction and then we're into a new 5 wave climb. In the failure of the butterfly, this is the failure of the uptrend and we switch from a steady...

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I want to preface this by saying I'm a TA and this is just dinner table chat as far as I am concerned. I've no interest what-so-ever in why a market moves. All the money is made based on how it moves- and the TA is working great for that. Just sharing a theory that is floating about (It's not mine). The idea is Trump is intentionally crashing the markets in...

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So today I briefly skimmed through the MSTR 8-K and then dumped the whole thing into a LLM. Asked a series of questions. Here's a write up of the end results. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Gambit: Riding the Bull, Bracing for the Abyss? A Deep Dive Analysis Introduction: The Boldest Bet on the Block(chain) In the annals of corporate strategy, few moves have been...

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For a long time I've tried my best here to take every single conceivable angle to explain why it's ENTRIURELY STUPID to be led into believing there's a simple and repeatable cycle to these things. I've tried being nice. Tried being mean. Tried TA. Tried logic. Tried getting ChatGPT to write me posts. Tried debating. Tried being friendly. I've tried all I can....

holeyprofit Updated 

Most things are up from time of bull posts, but I do think I've got this horribly horribly wrong. If I have - then the worse really is directly ahead. I said a lot of bullish stuff, just want to be clear that if there's any sign of selling at all I'm out everything by trailing stop. I'll only stay in while there's small chart uptrends. Pertains to anything...

holeyprofit Updated 

I know it looks good at this exact moment in time but that spike move we just had was so sus. It's really the sort of thing I expect to be dealing with when following a downtrend. Sell > big profit. Sell > big profit Sell > WTF was that Oh correction > Sell > Big profit. I could stack up odds that put the odds of a rally in this area at around 90% (Which...

holeyprofit Updated 

Alts have been in a bear trend all of the year so far. Topping mostly on harmonic patterns at the start of the year. See full post about that here: Since this time, we've completed multiple further steps of trend failure. Let's run through them. First let's refer to my template of things you tend to see in the public during stages of a bubble. It's a...

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If the sharp move we've seen today turns out to be a bull trap, then the logical thing to expect here would be an incredibly sharp move down to the 4.23 fib. 450 or so in SPY. IV is sick on the options but spreads for around this spike make sense.

holeyprofit Updated 

I think we just bottomed and we'll now see a retest of the highs. I'm still net super bearish but I think a trap is possible. I've taken profit and bought under 5200.

holeyprofit

SOL recently hit major supports - ones that I've had my alerts sitting at for a while - see previous bear forecast. Concurrent to this, we have indices hitting major supports. We have possible completion of the wave 5 part of this downtrend and we're inside the area a head and shoulder would generally form. The odds strongly favour the bulls in alt now - for...

holeyprofit Updated 

Alts have downtrended all year and across the board show clear signals of trend failure. But that's not to sat they might not soon rip. We have the potential for a shoulder setup, which would means alts strong up.