holeyprofit

holeyprofit

BTC is currently retesting the area is made the first big break from. If we reject from here, it's usually pretty easy to map out the next important levels, since we generally trade down to the 2.20 fib of the failed rally. Around 40,000 in this instance. This is a real make or break point for BTC. If we see a rejection here, then there's a strong chance this...

holeyprofit

Although I regularly have made bear forecasts on various things, I've never made a forecast of something going to zero (or as good as) before. It's something that's outside the scope of what my strategies are designed to do. They're based on trend development ideas and actually I generally tend to get fairy bullish in tight zones on things when they are around...

holeyprofit Updated 

Where we're most likely to be in the general trend structure now is fairly subjective. We came up off the butterfly support mentioned previous which is a great start for the bull move but we're also still well inside of bull trap territory. If we have a low or a bull trap forming, should be a big spike here.

holeyprofit Updated 

Here's the case for a crash. You may have noted I can, on occasion, be a bit of a bearish guy - but I don't actually use the word "Crash" all that much. Not all bear setups are crash setups. Even when they will be, a less dramatic bear move usually happens before a crash. The times when there's actual crash risk are low - but we have a confluence of them now....

holeyprofit Updated 

The market is fast and ATR is high so I make sure I have plans to both sides so as not to be caught out, but realistically I've done hardly any trading since the day we dropped 6% and the rallied to retest the high. That was the last day I took big positions (longs which hit trailing stops for 300 points) and since then I've been mainly watching. Spectating...

holeyprofit Updated 

I'd been hoping to see a bit higher for a higher RR short and bank a bit more on my longs but today was sketchy. Ditched all my long positions and pivoted short into this rally. Perhaps this was all a big butterfly pattern. If it was, sickening drop comes next.

holeyprofit

Analyzing the Multifaceted Risk of a Deflationary Bust in the 21st Century United States Scene setting; =============================================================================== Shifting Focus from Inflation to a Latent Deflationary Threat =============================================================================== For decades, the dominant...

holeyprofit Updated 

Massive intraday pop today but it did not manage to advance much past the last high. The size of the move today means if we had a big one day rejection of it that would now be a limit down day. Which this specific thing does not have to happen (could down trend over a few days) break the low in this setp would give a strong case for limit down days to come....

holeyprofit

I had a fair crack at being bullish and it was profitable for a while but last attempt ran my entry levels. We're back to retesting them now but I've ditched all my longs other than super lotto calls. If might turn out that big W move was just an ABC. That 6% down day was wave 1. The failed new high was wave 2. If those things are true, I think you're going...

holeyprofit

I made a full pivot on my bear position while we were 6% down on the day into the end of last week, switching to long positioning at 5150 and adding a couple times once the first resis levels broke, now I'm starting to get ready to try to position short again into a move a little higher (5550 or so). My bias at this point is fairly neutral. As a trader, it...

holeyprofit

I wanted to give an overview update for those who've followed my macro thesis over the years. I've used various different things to support it but when it's come to my thoughts as to when the idea has failed I've always thought the only thing I really use for that is the big 4.23' of the 2008 crash. Since 2019 I've used the thesis big fib levels will foretell...

holeyprofit

During the run up and repeatedly around 100K I spoke of the different risk setups in the bear move. I think there's a good chance these are passed for now. Contingent on sensible stops under the low, I think this is probably a good spot to get back in for a passive trade. Targeting retest of highs. Will update if plans change, otherwise- simple stuff from here.

holeyprofit

Scaled up shorts massively in the rally but I am starting to suspect this is going to be a failed bear move. Done a lot of stop trailing/profit taking into the drop. Have a long bias if we see supports holding here.

holeyprofit Updated 

I've been super bearish indices for a while but heading into the 5000 area in SPX I am becoming increasingly bullish. I think in the extremely bearish setup we bounce to 5500 and if we are actually making a big major top, then it's viable we swipe at the highs a few times. Liquidity ... and all that. This could potentially be a long time of choppy action...

holeyprofit

Making a low in the general area in which we trade now would be highly consistent with a bullish trend development. If this is the low around 5200, then I think it's quite likely we see a new high. Profits should be locked in on all previous bear entries given. If the local downtrend breaks here, the bear move is likely over.

holeyprofit

Anyone of a bearish persuasion always runs into the same issue when we rip like this. If you know bull trap formation, you know they form like this. It's always tempting to fade- but if you are objective about whether you'll be right at all as a bear and also consider the different style of bull traps, you have to be aware of the risk. Because your idealised...

holeyprofit

I think the odds of this turning into a spectacular short are unusually high for indices but even if so there could be some massive stop gunning to come first. I've a big bearish bias into a rip but it would likely be exceptional rally if I have the idea right. Picked up some longs targeting 5800. Ideally looking to make some profit and use it to bankroll the...

holeyprofit

The swings of the week so far have created a giant pending butterfly- which may be the most important setup we've seen in SPX for a long long time - certainly the most important during this drop. A butterfly here in its book context is a bearish pattern, but if you follow my work you'll know I always say harmonics are binary decision levels. If they work, the...