holeyprofit

holeyprofit Updated 

Bleh I got out my longs too early. This was the move I originally positioned for. Anyway, this was exactly the move I was looking for to take a sizable attempt at the crash trade. I really hate shorting into drops because if you get it wrong, things like this happen. But I really love shorting into things like this because if you get it wrong then you don't...

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It really is looking icky out there for crypto. During this selling we've seen the most nominal of bounces. Look at the SOL sell off relative to the previous break, for example. Big bounces previously, this time it's just leg after leg of selling. This selling is really surprising in the context of a bull move but would be entirely consistent with what we'd...

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Tried to knife catch ETH twice and both times hit trailing stops for modest profits. I think I'll give it one more go and then write it off as misadventure if it does not work. The case for a rally here I think is quite good. It's looks horrible. Everyone is talking about how horrible it looks. The care free attitude has faded and we have bear mania setting...

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While in the 100K range I posted various different possible paths for 100K rejections, based on the 1.61 extension inflection and how we tend to act at that. 1.61 levels are always a spot to be careful. They can pullback a little, a lot and they can even mark full blown reversals. Sometimes 1.61 break and produce strong uptrends. There's a mix of things that can...

holeyprofit Updated 

Excellent few trading weeks,. During this time we've done over 30% profit on low risk (for context, our max drawdown to get that is less than the SPX drop of the high, and we've done 3 times the annual SPX average in a little over a week) with the best trade coming yesterday paying close to 3,000 on OTM daily puts. But I feel the tides may be turing. We maybe...

holeyprofit Updated 

Did a little switching between possible trade plans while we chopped but I think the first one I put out is likely to be the actionable one. Low isn't quite 77 but it's very close. The 93 - 95K bull trap would now agree with a typical 76 correction. I went long a basket of cryptos. I'm a rip seller, but I think there's good speculative value at these levels...

holeyprofit Updated 

I've not really seen all the things I'd expect from the rallies out of the low to signal a bigger reversal. We are on good support levels. The odds of a bounce from this area I'd consider really strong but if we see this level failing with only a shallow bounce then this can continue to sell hard. Personally, I think BTC will tend to move similarly to SPX. SPX...

holeyprofit Updated 

I've made a series of bearish posts on crypto over the last months and had my fair share of feedback on what people are doing and expecting. A lot of you can't be doing too well right now. Perhaps it's time to take another think through why you are doing this and is you're ready for the worst case outcomes. This isn't a gloating post. Many of my peers get...

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If you draw a fib from the high to the low of the 2022 drop in MSTR, you'll see we have now completed all of the fibs of this swing. In this post we're going to take a detailed look at two things; 1 - How a trend typically forms heading into a 4.23 extension. 2 - What typically happens at 4.23 extensions. Everything we cover here will be generic rules for...

holeyprofit Updated 

In my previous big bear break analysis of BTC I gave the area we trade in now as the last wobble before the break. First rejection to 90. Wobble 90 - 88. Capitulate under there. We have the drop and the wobble. Now we'll see if the break is legit.

holeyprofit Updated 

I think crypto has recently made an important break and this will be telling later but everything has a bit of a "Too easy" feel about it now and I think we might bull trap. Trying longs for a possible ABC.

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SPX made a bit of a bounce off the support levels but it's not shown the strong properties I'd have expected to see in the bat D leg or the C leg I spoke of. All trailing stops on longs hit. If we can continue to break out to the upside I'll probably have to buy breaks with tight stops but I think the more likely looking setup here is we make a new low. If a...

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In my initial mention and entry at the low I posted the Elliot ABC corrective pattern. Then I remembered we live in the age of eternal stop hunting. Upon some further consideration, I suspect if my bear thesis is correct we'll likely see a new high first. Probably the short being 6160. The difference between the ABC and the bat D leg does not matter at this...

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We have a nice 5 leg drop so far and now we're current threatening the double bottom. If we fail to make a new low today I think we'll trade 6080 again. Picked up longs and lotto calls today. Would love to see this bounce for a short. Out my shorts accumulated during the drop.

holeyprofit Updated 

I'd say we're now at the point where BTC bulls have the best chance of a low. We're filling a bullish butterfly and if all is well and good with the world this can moon. However, the failure of a bullish butterfly in this situation is a strong foreteller of a crash. There are a variety of ways a 1.61 can fail here. The immediate fail one usually has us slam to...

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SMCI has now completed all the general stages of the Minsky bubble. It made the rally, it made the top, it made the capitulation and then it made the mean reversion. Big win for the efficacy of the Minsky model. Let's now run through the stages as they happened. Because after the fact, it's easy. Everyone sees it. To benefit from a bull market you need to...

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To be honest, I think the only thing someone has to do to make a working theory on the halving is to look at the coefficient between SPX and BTC. The 30 co during this "Cycle" has been over 70%. Which is higher than the co of BTC forecast and actual price move. This coefficient would drop to around 0.5 if BTC trades 10 - 20K lower (which would also annul all...

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I made a couple attempts at buying BTC. One just before the spike over 100K. Went up for a while and hit a breakeven trailing stop. Secondly I tried into the head fake low we had recently but cut that for a small profit yesterday. In the bull setup I'd have wanted to see a much cleaner bounce off support. Seeing a range around support and indices trading into...