holeyprofit

holeyprofit Updated 

1.61 extensions can be a common level for false breakouts. One of the times in which we know we can see 1.61 false breakouts is in Elliot wave 5. This perhaps is reason we find so many 1.61 extensions at big highs. We've been trading at this level for a while now. Tried to sell twice and now we have a wick after the news. If this sells again, then we...

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USDJPY looks very bearish on the daily charts and it is close to making major breaks of the bullish uptrend, but if the bullish uptrend is going to hold USDJPY is likely already at or very close to a low. I've been wanting to go swing long USDJPY for a while. Made a few entries. Had some instantly go a couple 100 pips for me. Had some instantly hitting stop...

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PLTR has reached the 76t retracement of the previous drop. Unless you're very new to following my work, you'll know I love to trade off 76 fibs. If you are new, read my strategy post about it: Quick recap on PLTR analysis history. I have no idea what PLTR does but I became aware of it in 2021 when option sellers on Reddit seemed to think it was free money. I...

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I think this is the start a rally in PLTR to at least 30 - 35. Could even take it up to a new high. Will update on targeting later if the early part of the move succeeds.

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Bull traps have gotten more tricky in modern times with us having to account for various types of trickery, but the basic model for a bull trap (Or any reversal off a retracement) is to look for a 76 retracement. Here's the strategy for this. So many crypto charts look like this. All of them screaming bull trap. ETH has been developing for a while. COIN...

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Over the last years RUT has formed a textbook version of the "Return to normal" bull trap. Recently it spiked in a W pattern into the resistance level that stopped the 2021 rally. Suddenly, people who've never mentioned RUT before are explaining how this is a critical bullish breakout. What could possibly go wrong?

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The popularity of indices have come a long way over the last decades. Back when Bogle first marketed and popularised the idea, it was deemed to be "Un-American". Randomly allocating value to things based on their placing in an index. That's basically communism. That's the kinda thing that was being said back in the day. But Bogle persisted and the indices...

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Yes. I am posting the bubble template thing. I both love and loath the bubble template. It really has been useful to me since I became aware of it (Sometime back around 2014 I'd guess) in helping me to understand the overall structural build and decline of a trend. When combined with trend ideas like Elliot wave and fib ratios etc - this overall model has...

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The case for us being in the completion of bearish Elliot waves on AAPL is compelling. AAPL has rallied about 1,000% over the last 10 years and we can sub-divide this nicely into the different sections we'd expect to see in Elliot wave and we also have the common news cycles and characteristics of the different waves. All syncing up nicely over a long period of...

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The 4 year cycle narrative would have it that the most volatile asset, that will drop over 70% the most times and then have the most explosive gains to the upside will also the one that is the most predictable and the most popular one for people to have all in exposure on. Which I consider optimistic. While getting ultra wealthy being long this accommodatingly...

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Let's look at the stages of the NVDA rally and match them with the Elliot wave forecast posted at 500. Below are notes from a post at the time with the pics inserted of the moves since then. (Please note - this analysis was done pre-split so we'll have to account for that. Overall persistent rally to 800 - 850. A choppy market and some sort of false...

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Follow up to the ETH bull trap post below. Since filling this we've acted much in line with the forecast of a classic uptrend failure. We made the 76 top and dropped to the 50. From the 50 we attempted to make a new high but failed again at the 76. 50 then was a bull trap fib to 61 and we had the 50 break. Now we may break the 38 fib leading to some...

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I think BTC might be late in a topping pattern and soon heading into the more obvious break section. If so, then we should see COIN and co all slam hard. COIN has a great bear case on its own merit. The 76 bull trap, the 61 break and now the 50 retest. Very much mirroring the signals of ETH. If the BTC drop is going to come, it'd be very reasonable to see...

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In this analysis I'll break down the possible BTC topping pattern into three main stages. 1 - The pending bull flag. I'll cover this first, because this is the common consensus. That we're in a flag and when the breakout is made we should expect to see an extension at least as big as the previous rally. Flag patterns lead to big breakouts, when they work. But...

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This is an extrapolated Elliot wave analysis which is based on the starting assumption that we have recently made wave 1 of the downtrend. If for any reason this fails to be wave 1, that annuls the following trade plan. Alternatively, if this is wave 1, then this plan should map out the important swings for the next several months. Elliot Wave Basics Quick...

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It's possible we've formed a false breakout of the highs. If we see another break, the odds of this are far higher and it will be viable all of the action we've seen since the first drop has just been a big choppy wave 2 flat. If that is the case, the wave 2 flat is going to transition into the wave 3 trend. When that happens on timeframes this big, we call it a...

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BTC has down trended for 6 months. When you look at the smaller charts it's less obvious because it's messy but when you look at the monthly chart it's clear as can be. The upside wicks are all lower. The downside wicks are all lower. We've made a series of lower lows and lower highs since the false breakout. If we break again, we're going to go through the...

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I've been travelling a lot recently (Just got home yesterday) and so have not been fully following everything that's been happening. Mainly just following SPX. SPX (And DJI) both look more bullish but it's interesting that we've seen everything hit resistance levels at the same time (Yesterday) and then have the strong rejections. The question now becomes is...