holeyprofit

holeyprofit Updated 

SPX appears to be in a downtrend. If we are, then the optimal trades should be shorting the 76 retracements. One fiilling now. Shorts here.

holeyprofit Updated 

Previously I pointed out the MSTR possible topping pattern at the 4.23 and spoke at length about how this pattern tends to predict a revisit of the 1.27. This 1.27 move is always a crash and in a pattern like this tends to come in at around a 76% drop from the high. Now MSTR is heading into the 2.20. If this level breaks we usually have a period of...

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If it all comes to pass Saylor was just a troll who stuck to the bit, I'd feel this made a lot of sense given he tends to say things that are either trolling or insane. And I'd like to think more people listen to a troll than an insane person. Anyway, up review of his latest advice to sell a kidney rather than selling BTC, I'd like to announce my plans for...

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Bleh I got out my longs too early. This was the move I originally positioned for. Anyway, this was exactly the move I was looking for to take a sizable attempt at the crash trade. I really hate shorting into drops because if you get it wrong, things like this happen. But I really love shorting into things like this because if you get it wrong then you don't...

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It really is looking icky out there for crypto. During this selling we've seen the most nominal of bounces. Look at the SOL sell off relative to the previous break, for example. Big bounces previously, this time it's just leg after leg of selling. This selling is really surprising in the context of a bull move but would be entirely consistent with what we'd...

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Tried to knife catch ETH twice and both times hit trailing stops for modest profits. I think I'll give it one more go and then write it off as misadventure if it does not work. The case for a rally here I think is quite good. It's looks horrible. Everyone is talking about how horrible it looks. The care free attitude has faded and we have bear mania setting...

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While in the 100K range I posted various different possible paths for 100K rejections, based on the 1.61 extension inflection and how we tend to act at that. 1.61 levels are always a spot to be careful. They can pullback a little, a lot and they can even mark full blown reversals. Sometimes 1.61 break and produce strong uptrends. There's a mix of things that can...

holeyprofit Updated 

Excellent few trading weeks,. During this time we've done over 30% profit on low risk (for context, our max drawdown to get that is less than the SPX drop of the high, and we've done 3 times the annual SPX average in a little over a week) with the best trade coming yesterday paying close to 3,000 on OTM daily puts. But I feel the tides may be turing. We maybe...

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Did a little switching between possible trade plans while we chopped but I think the first one I put out is likely to be the actionable one. Low isn't quite 77 but it's very close. The 93 - 95K bull trap would now agree with a typical 76 correction. I went long a basket of cryptos. I'm a rip seller, but I think there's good speculative value at these levels...

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I've not really seen all the things I'd expect from the rallies out of the low to signal a bigger reversal. We are on good support levels. The odds of a bounce from this area I'd consider really strong but if we see this level failing with only a shallow bounce then this can continue to sell hard. Personally, I think BTC will tend to move similarly to SPX. SPX...

holeyprofit Updated 

I've made a series of bearish posts on crypto over the last months and had my fair share of feedback on what people are doing and expecting. A lot of you can't be doing too well right now. Perhaps it's time to take another think through why you are doing this and is you're ready for the worst case outcomes. This isn't a gloating post. Many of my peers get...

holeyprofit Updated 

If you draw a fib from the high to the low of the 2022 drop in MSTR, you'll see we have now completed all of the fibs of this swing. In this post we're going to take a detailed look at two things; 1 - How a trend typically forms heading into a 4.23 extension. 2 - What typically happens at 4.23 extensions. Everything we cover here will be generic rules for...

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In my previous big bear break analysis of BTC I gave the area we trade in now as the last wobble before the break. First rejection to 90. Wobble 90 - 88. Capitulate under there. We have the drop and the wobble. Now we'll see if the break is legit.

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I think crypto has recently made an important break and this will be telling later but everything has a bit of a "Too easy" feel about it now and I think we might bull trap. Trying longs for a possible ABC.

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SPX made a bit of a bounce off the support levels but it's not shown the strong properties I'd have expected to see in the bat D leg or the C leg I spoke of. All trailing stops on longs hit. If we can continue to break out to the upside I'll probably have to buy breaks with tight stops but I think the more likely looking setup here is we make a new low. If a...

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In my initial mention and entry at the low I posted the Elliot ABC corrective pattern. Then I remembered we live in the age of eternal stop hunting. Upon some further consideration, I suspect if my bear thesis is correct we'll likely see a new high first. Probably the short being 6160. The difference between the ABC and the bat D leg does not matter at this...

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We have a nice 5 leg drop so far and now we're current threatening the double bottom. If we fail to make a new low today I think we'll trade 6080 again. Picked up longs and lotto calls today. Would love to see this bounce for a short. Out my shorts accumulated during the drop.

holeyprofit Updated 

I'd say we're now at the point where BTC bulls have the best chance of a low. We're filling a bullish butterfly and if all is well and good with the world this can moon. However, the failure of a bullish butterfly in this situation is a strong foreteller of a crash. There are a variety of ways a 1.61 can fail here. The immediate fail one usually has us slam to...