holeyprofit

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We'll touch on all the main concepts of the thesis covered here in this post but it's already extensively covered in the below related post. For full context it's best to read that first: My betting pattern through these fibs is always the same. I'm always interested in fading moves at the 1.27 - 1.61 fibs. If those break I am always looking for strong...

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I have a related post in which I've done most of the heavy lifting and proof of concepts (showing the real time implementation of the model on the SMCI bust) for this. www.tradingview.com This post's main purpose is just to have a post to specifically track the failure of the setup in NVDA or to update on the different stages of the model through the decline is...

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The classic bull trap pattern comes when we have an initial sell off. Some sort of retracement of that and then a failure to make a new high forming a capitulation pattern. Everyone knows this pattern, it's the classic "Return to Normal" in the bubble template. However, we also have modified versions of bull traps that make new highs. While this seems...

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Over the last couple years SMCI has done a speed run through all the phases of the Minsky model. Ending with a near perfect expression of all stage. Let's go through the steps one by one; First - the macro trend was starting to run out of steam when we tagged the 4.23 (As so often happens). Next we had the classic fake crash and then final spike out,...

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Firstly, apologies for lack of updates here of late. I've been side-tracked with real world events with limited time available to do online stuff. I have to admit I also find it rather disheartening when you post on TradingView 1/3 of comments tell you not to be a trader, another 1/3 tell you not have to have a view. Then there are a few good ones and the ChatGPT...

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I've explained my BTC thesis is depth and discussed my entries into the proxy bets of COIN and ETH shorts last week. Another one I have been wanting to short for some time now if MSTR but it has the pending harmonic and it had not hit the 1.61 yet. Until that is hit, there's always a chance you short and it goes parabolic immediately and then tops a bit over...

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I don't track bonds all that much, but as a general rule when I see scores of people all talking about the same thing (Which they do not normally talk about), I suspect that idea might have gotten too popular for its own good and look to see if there are any obvious fade patterns. I looked at TLT a while ago and seen the possible head and shoulders. Have just...

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I see social media awash with the posts about the BTC breakout. We are close. Very close to a legit breakout and if it comes, I'll retract a good amount of the ill talk I did on the halving theory (Not all of it, I still think assuming flawless cycles on 2 events is silly) - if I am wrong, I'll change my stance. However, if this is going to fail we will be into...

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This post is going to take a look at all of the instances in BTC history of there being a major breakout (This is doable, it's not as many as you may think) and compare the action in those breakouts to the action we have now. Let's first define the action we have now. We can argue all day over different patterns this can be called but there are a few things we...

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I've been consistent in my net bullish bias on USDJPY since 150. The TA made sense and at the time it seemed silly to me that all of a sudden absolutely everyone, with no Forex experience, all suddenly were entirely certain the USDJPY was going to crash. I've been a Forex trader a long time. Seen a lot of people come and go. If the game was as simple as look...

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I've been generally bearish on BTC a while. Usually buying supports (As is my contrarian style) but on a swing basis I think the general space looks weak. Follow through on this rally would likely change my mind, but if it is weak ,then we'd be at the end of this rally. I've mainly contained my bets on crypto short to COIN, ETH and a few other alts. I track...

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1.61 extensions can be a common level for false breakouts. One of the times in which we know we can see 1.61 false breakouts is in Elliot wave 5. This perhaps is reason we find so many 1.61 extensions at big highs. We've been trading at this level for a while now. Tried to sell twice and now we have a wick after the news. If this sells again, then we...

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USDJPY looks very bearish on the daily charts and it is close to making major breaks of the bullish uptrend, but if the bullish uptrend is going to hold USDJPY is likely already at or very close to a low. I've been wanting to go swing long USDJPY for a while. Made a few entries. Had some instantly go a couple 100 pips for me. Had some instantly hitting stop...

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PLTR has reached the 76t retracement of the previous drop. Unless you're very new to following my work, you'll know I love to trade off 76 fibs. If you are new, read my strategy post about it: Quick recap on PLTR analysis history. I have no idea what PLTR does but I became aware of it in 2021 when option sellers on Reddit seemed to think it was free money. I...

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I think this is the start a rally in PLTR to at least 30 - 35. Could even take it up to a new high. Will update on targeting later if the early part of the move succeeds.

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Bull traps have gotten more tricky in modern times with us having to account for various types of trickery, but the basic model for a bull trap (Or any reversal off a retracement) is to look for a 76 retracement. Here's the strategy for this. So many crypto charts look like this. All of them screaming bull trap. ETH has been developing for a while. COIN...

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Over the last years RUT has formed a textbook version of the "Return to normal" bull trap. Recently it spiked in a W pattern into the resistance level that stopped the 2021 rally. Suddenly, people who've never mentioned RUT before are explaining how this is a critical bullish breakout. What could possibly go wrong?

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The popularity of indices have come a long way over the last decades. Back when Bogle first marketed and popularised the idea, it was deemed to be "Un-American". Randomly allocating value to things based on their placing in an index. That's basically communism. That's the kinda thing that was being said back in the day. But Bogle persisted and the indices...