holeyprofit

holeyprofit Updated 

Any call for a bigger rally for the last month has been doomed to failure, but I think we might now be inside a developing squeeze which can trade a bit over 5900. Would love to see this for the short setup. Would not fade rips for a while if this starts. This move would be very fast and aggressive if it is indeed a squeeze.

holeyprofit

I'll split this post into a couple sections, general theory and then the actual TA that supports the FACT that the uptrends have failed - as per the expected path of typical breakouts. All We See or Seem is Just a Dream Within a Dream The Myth of Crypto Cycles Crypto bulls cling to the idea of cycles like a religion. They believe that no matter what...

holeyprofit

I think yesterday significant breaks were made in crypto and this has been the last bull trap before we see a big break. BTC would break a 1.61 if it made a new low, which forecasts capitulation to 2.20 - 2.61 at least. 65K or so area. This would be around 30% and translate to over 50% drops in many alts. Basket of crypto shorts on now.

holeyprofit

If the big break setup is coming I think this would be around the end of the last big rally. We've made the sharp corrective move spoken of in the below idea

holeyprofit Updated 

SPX continues to trade weak through supports. There are a long list of reasons why it was reasonable to expect a low to be made either today or yesterday and both times we've sold through supports. I think this is a break but I do also think the more prudent positioning would be to look for a rally to 5650. Very cautious now as a bear into this drop. Trailing...

holeyprofit Updated 

Eeek! Messy day today. Heading into today everything was on good supports. I should caveat this by saying we also closed at what may be good supports ... but today we might have seen some real damage to the trends which will unfold in the coming weeks. The wave C / D leg thesis has failed with a new low. I was stopped out some longs and exited the rest on the...

holeyprofit

We have the very uncommon condition of SPX downtrending 10% over the last month. It didn't make a flash crash event. It's not the classic jagged correction. Certainly isn't a clean ABC. Day after day, week after week the hour chart has painted lower lows and lower highs. In this type of break I'd expect to see a rally right after. Traditionally this is a...

holeyprofit Updated 

Their are sketchy things, there are very sketchy things and there's having your entire charting history forming a bearish bat pattern and dumping 50% off the PRZ. This is one of those extremely rate PRZ things. Generally in a topping market what we tend to see is a 50% capitulation. Followed by some sort of bounce and then the downtrend. This attempt at a...

holeyprofit

I've been a persistent bear into all the rallies under 5700 but 5700 I did think was a good level for a bounce. I still expected lower off this but from as early as November I'd forecast a bounce here if we topped somewhere around 6100. This was betting on a 1.27 hold or at least a dead cat. That idea might have failed today. Markets closed today at...

holeyprofit Updated 

Everything currently sits on the make or break levels for any reasonable bullish trade plan. We either make a low here or the odds of a bigger rally/low are significantly lower. These are the times I love to bet. It looks impossible the idea can work, it pays over 1:10 RR and makes a lot of technical sense. I find when things look impossible but make technical...

holeyprofit Updated 

Very close to puking my bullish positions and reverting back to being a bear (although I hate to short at these levels, I'd probably wait for a break and rally) but this is possibly a wave 5 spike out. If it is, then we'll see a big rally to over 6000. Big attempts at this on now, largely weighted with deep OTM calls so they're cheap to lose. Wave 5 would be...

holeyprofit Updated 

I've not really seen the things I'd have expected to see so far in my break thesis and this pending W shape alongside the previous possible Elliot count I mentioned has me thinking we might be about to see a big pop. Would absolutely love to see this for the short set up. Trying some longs here where the wouldbe C leg would end if I have this right. Would be...

holeyprofit Updated 

I think I may be wrong about the break coming now thesis and we're perhaps heading into a bigger retracement. Would see a parabolic spike if so, and this would setup a great short setup. Possible instead of an ABC that last move was just A and C is to come.

holeyprofit

The action today I feel is a bit suspicious. Doesn't feel like what I'd expect in a usual legit breakout at this level. This could be a butterfly low, which could setup a rally to over 6000. Bears should be careful now if we rally.

holeyprofit Updated 

I think there's a chance this could be a bull trap in SPY and the rule here would be the more aggressive the rip the sharper the drop. This is all coming off a big support level. It does have to be respected if we don't drop here a low or a range may be coming. But if this is a bull trap - a big blitz will come. Positioned with a bunch of short term OTM lotto puts.

holeyprofit Updated 

I think SPX may be in a rally before breaking a really big support. If that's the case we could see a capitulation swing to 5500. I've built up a series of short term lotto bets on this. Betting on a weak close to the week and big break of the lows.

holeyprofit Updated 

Let's do a full top down analysis. There's a lot of chatter about this and that why BTC is rallying and selling, but let's take a step back and look at the full context of the TA. Because here a simple bit of logic - if the TA forecasts were drawing the chart before the news, the news is not as important at the TA. The thing that has already told you what would...

holeyprofit

I've explained the full case for this in the below idea. Short case here is the 76 fill. Using this to load up again on crypto shorts for a 50% dump.