holeyprofit

holeyprofit

Yes. I am posting the bubble template thing. I both love and loath the bubble template. It really has been useful to me since I became aware of it (Sometime back around 2014 I'd guess) in helping me to understand the overall structural build and decline of a trend. When combined with trend ideas like Elliot wave and fib ratios etc - this overall model has...

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The case for us being in the completion of bearish Elliot waves on AAPL is compelling. AAPL has rallied about 1,000% over the last 10 years and we can sub-divide this nicely into the different sections we'd expect to see in Elliot wave and we also have the common news cycles and characteristics of the different waves. All syncing up nicely over a long period of...

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The 4 year cycle narrative would have it that the most volatile asset, that will drop over 70% the most times and then have the most explosive gains to the upside will also the one that is the most predictable and the most popular one for people to have all in exposure on. Which I consider optimistic. While getting ultra wealthy being long this accommodatingly...

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Let's look at the stages of the NVDA rally and match them with the Elliot wave forecast posted at 500. Below are notes from a post at the time with the pics inserted of the moves since then. (Please note - this analysis was done pre-split so we'll have to account for that. Overall persistent rally to 800 - 850. A choppy market and some sort of false...

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Follow up to the ETH bull trap post below. Since filling this we've acted much in line with the forecast of a classic uptrend failure. We made the 76 top and dropped to the 50. From the 50 we attempted to make a new high but failed again at the 76. 50 then was a bull trap fib to 61 and we had the 50 break. Now we may break the 38 fib leading to some...

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I think BTC might be late in a topping pattern and soon heading into the more obvious break section. If so, then we should see COIN and co all slam hard. COIN has a great bear case on its own merit. The 76 bull trap, the 61 break and now the 50 retest. Very much mirroring the signals of ETH. If the BTC drop is going to come, it'd be very reasonable to see...

holeyprofit Updated 

In this analysis I'll break down the possible BTC topping pattern into three main stages. 1 - The pending bull flag. I'll cover this first, because this is the common consensus. That we're in a flag and when the breakout is made we should expect to see an extension at least as big as the previous rally. Flag patterns lead to big breakouts, when they work. But...

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This is an extrapolated Elliot wave analysis which is based on the starting assumption that we have recently made wave 1 of the downtrend. If for any reason this fails to be wave 1, that annuls the following trade plan. Alternatively, if this is wave 1, then this plan should map out the important swings for the next several months. Elliot Wave Basics Quick...

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It's possible we've formed a false breakout of the highs. If we see another break, the odds of this are far higher and it will be viable all of the action we've seen since the first drop has just been a big choppy wave 2 flat. If that is the case, the wave 2 flat is going to transition into the wave 3 trend. When that happens on timeframes this big, we call it a...

holeyprofit Updated 

BTC has down trended for 6 months. When you look at the smaller charts it's less obvious because it's messy but when you look at the monthly chart it's clear as can be. The upside wicks are all lower. The downside wicks are all lower. We've made a series of lower lows and lower highs since the false breakout. If we break again, we're going to go through the...

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I've been travelling a lot recently (Just got home yesterday) and so have not been fully following everything that's been happening. Mainly just following SPX. SPX (And DJI) both look more bullish but it's interesting that we've seen everything hit resistance levels at the same time (Yesterday) and then have the strong rejections. The question now becomes is...

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SPX went parabolic after breaking the 1.61 of the bottoming swing. This move has now extended to the 2.61 of that fib set and currently sold off to under it. It's possible this is a bat pattern. If it is, then we probably made a high yesterday. One caveat of the bat to always keep in mind is if it fails it can evolve into a crab and when that happens you are...

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I actually thought Nikkei was making a low after the last dump and bought quite close to the low, but although we're up since then we have action more consistent with a correction than a reversal off the lows. If this is just a bear market rally, then we're likely to see the top here around the 76 fib.

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As more time goes on, the thesis that the BTC new high was just a wick out gains credibility. See old post here; I've tried to buy on the supports. Made a bit of money doing it but there's been no big clean rip that one would expect in a bottoming market. Instead we have choppy traps more in line with a reversing market. In the recent drop we might have...

holeyprofit Updated 

I got out my previous longs a bit too early. My buy point was the low but I decided to bail thinking indices would drop and BTC would drop with them. Indices dropped, BTC kept rallying and it was so much easier to make bigger money in the indices swings than BTC I just forgot about it. Decided I'd try and catch a big swing on it later if it got back into step...

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The rally over the last days has been impressive but the structure of the two parabolic legs and choppiness in the middle is consistent with a bearish harmonic. This gives us a real decision point here. Harmonics can be highly accurate in forecasting major moves. If this is a successful harmonic, the implied forecast of it would be a move down to 4660. In a...

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Took a bunch of bets over the last couple days on SPX making a new high. Time expiry for this is scattered but all bets are within three months. This looks like an Elliot correction. And, as such, I'll buy the 76. I think if there's a rally, we'll see 6,000. Which is a zone I intend to become hyper bearish if we hit.

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Here's a sequence of unlikely seeming coincidences showing how eeirily similar the action over the last 25 years has been the action before the Great Depression. The 1920s Market Crashes In the 1920s, there were two significant market crashes, each around 50%. By drawing a Fibonacci extension from the low of the first crash to the high of the second, we see...