holeyprofit

holeyprofit

USDJPY has made a crash move off the resistance. This could be the completion of the ABC. If this support does not hold I think I flip perma bear UJ for a while targeting 140, but for now may as well take the super discount on the 76. Indices are slamming, maybe USD is bottoming.

holeyprofit Updated 

SPX just hit major resistance. Biggest resistance of the year. It is possible this selling has more momentum. However, if it is just a dip we'd be near the end and if this is a bear trap the rally can be exceptional after breaking it. High RR spot long here. Total rug risk if stop breaks. Be disciplined.

holeyprofit Updated 

Traders, it is with a heavy heart I bring to you forecasts of protracted ranges to come. Choppy and dull markets, lasting weeks or months. It's a sad forecast to make, but hopefully I am wrong. Here's the chain of logic for it. First we need to look at how markets typically recover from a bear move. Let's look at some of the main feature of the 2008 onwards...

holeyprofit Updated 

The big sell yesterday caught a lot of people by surprise, but it really was an incredibly obvious resistance level we slammed into. During the rally it was simple to plan for resistance hitting somewhere 5630 with an overshoot. We first stalled at 5630, then spiked in the news move - and then slammed. Now - that might have been a blow off top and it might...

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Had an eye on this one for a while and there've been a few points I thought we might be making a high in this but so far taken no action on it (Which has proven wise). Now we have a strong confluence of sell signals, though. We have the potential AB=CD topping patterns and this comes in at the 1.61 head fake level. See strategy info here: 1.61 head fake is...

holeyprofit

The recent up move in EURUSD may be an impulsive leg. If it is, there's a fair risk we're at the top of it now but would be great to look for longs 100 pips lower. We have a lot of news today. The forecast style of a C leg would be a sharp drop and whipsaw, which is often consistent with news releases. I'm not one for guessing headlines (I don't know and don't...

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Currently running longs from the low: These have done well. Up over 10 times their max drawdown but we're into resistance now. I also have a bit of an incline we might be setting a short term bottom in USD and top in equites - which would agree with a possible stop hunt on BTC. Seeing early victory laps from the BTC bulls but it should be considered that...

holeyprofit

It's possible we've recently seen the start of a shift in the USDJPY trend. If we have, we should be in a sequence of lower lows now and it makes sense to try shorts on the 76 retracements of the last downswings. Filling what we be a great short area now if the trend has turned.

holeyprofit Updated 

Setups on COIN and MSTR are somewhat similar. Different in many respects because MSTR was at a high but very similar in the 4.23 extensions (Which often marks trend exhaustion). An additional factor to support the case for a possible reversal here is we have the 76 fib. If BTC breaks again, it's liable to make a really scary looking chart. And if that...

holeyprofit

Doge has recently put in a big possible impulse leg, breaking the downtrend structure, and is at the 76% retracement fib of that rally. If this has been a valid impulse leg to start a new uptrend, a new low should not be made now. This offers a really high RR op in doge where about 60% needs to be risked to stop, over 100% is gained to a rest of the high and...

holeyprofit Updated 

I shorted crypto into the rally big rally and while I was quite a bit early on it I managed to stop out before the main sections of the rally and short higher. I've currently been short for several weeks with it being quite painless. All weekly bear closes. We're now threating some bigger bear breaks which would open the door to 50K and 40K, but I do also think...

holeyprofit Updated 

I'm stilling holding my shorts on BTC from the highs made a few weeks ago but have my stops trailed tight on them and have some longs on now. I think it's possible we're early in a sequence of events that will make a new high. Marked in the main chart is a 76 retracement hold and a 61 retest. 76 retracement levels are common for trend continuation. 61 retests...

holeyprofit Updated 

As mentioned in previous analysis, I believe the breaking of 60K to be important for BTC. If it is important, we'd be in a bull trap now. Currently we have to classic 76 retracement along with a butterfly correction pattern. Trying a fairly large short on BTC now. Expressed through shorts on BTC directly, OTM puts on COIN and OTM puts on MSTR. If the break...

holeyprofit Updated 

Context posts; Broad USD bull thesis. (Please read this before making cliche USD objections. I've covered them in the main USD bull thesis). Bottoming strategies examples for context on the style of forecast move. Both of these reversals had a similar confluence of signals. When this confluence of signals forms we commonly are about to see bear trend...

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A good general rule is when we have hyper parabolic rallies like this, if and when we spike out the low of where the rally really started to take off, we usually bottom or make at least a big bull trap rally. A big wash out, panics the longs. Setups a big bull trap (or low). Worth taking a stab at this now.

holeyprofit

The drop in DIS could be over entirely but even if we were more bearish in our view it's entirely valid to see a strong rally to fill a right shoulder pattern. Any move up here in DIS would be implied to be a very strong one. Buying OTM calls on this with 3 - 6 months on them.

holeyprofit

NKE has been getting hammered badly recently and all of this can build up into cap down capitulations to the 76. I like buying things cheap. Especially at 76 fibs and I love things crashing into 76 fibs. Taking a NKE position build up of shorting put spreads and buying calls. Betting the low is in and we retrace at least 40% of the drop - possibly get to the high.

holeyprofit

I'm actually quite bullish now but I suspect we'll see lower levels for a buy. Given the big supports have not hit yet, I am interested in shorting the high value fade areas of rallies. Nasdasq at one of those now.