holeyprofit

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When we have a 5 wave advance in Elliot wave that fails to make a new high this is referred to as a "Failed fifth". It's a very rare pattern and when it does occur in an uptrend it is followed by a really strong reversal. For this reason it is also known as the 'Black swan' pattern. We're now deep into the retracement and a bit above the proposed "Big sell...

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I was really bearish on this pair as it got the "Psychological 7" a year ago and have been shorting this quite a lot, but now we've gotten to major support levels and I am now long this for a swing trade. Along with other long USD trades.

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AUDUSD may be set to make a serious bearish breakout and we may be entering into the real trust of the USD bull. Along with my USDCAD long and EURUSD swing shorts, I am adding AUDUSD. If this move starts to develop, it can happen a lot quicker than people would probably be expecting.

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BTC will probably make a bit of a spike higher, but I think we're setting up another short leg. Looking for a parabolic move into 43,300 to complete the butterfly pattern and enter short.

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BTC looks like it is setting up a really strong opportunity and at this point we can look for the places where we'll have the strongest edge betting on BTC dropping. I've linked some other analysis to support why I think these are likely swings and important levels. In this one we're going to do a basic "Look left" analysis and see how we'd prepare for a move in...

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This looks like it's setting up a good opportunity. Whenever I see hyper strong moves in a market I also get interested in fading them, but since I've always done that I've learned it's usually a much better idea to wait until that goes really badly for some people first. Typically it's better to be the last bear than the first. And part of what I look for in this...

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The move forecast on this analysis is not different from the forecasts in my previous (Linked) analysis, but we'll take a look at this because it's interesting. The cup and handle pattern is one readily recognised by bulls (New and old alike) but less often do we see people showing examples of the bearish variation of the pattern. We might have one of these...

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I like the RR at this level. Obviously there's the gap risk that makes the RR calculation less than perfect but I think we've reasonable chances of at least some sort of dead-cat bounce on BABA from these levels.

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This has overshot my expected sell level a little but it looks like this might become a false breakout and we'll be into a butterfly pattern. Butterflies often can come with news events, so I'd not be surprised to see something of that nature. We need to get back down under 4350 but if we can get to trading 4330 sort of price I think it's highly likely we'll go on...

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"Sooner or later a crash is coming and it may be terrific" Rodger Babson - 1929. And I think we're now onto the verge of where we might see our modern day break, and it might well be horrific. We've completed the first section of the break forecast linked and I think we might be starting to get into a far more serious break if we see indices breaking the lows...

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If we see a rejection and a new low in the Nasdaq off this type of failed rally - we're probably going to see some serious selling into the down down swing. I think we'll see this down over 5% in the next move if we get under the low. The stock break is becoming a credible threat.

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Things can get really interesting for the RUT if we break under this range we've held in for the last 6 months.

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Shorting BTC after what I think has been a big blow off rally after the FOMC.

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Other than it not ranging in the start of the week, which caught me out, SPX has acted in line with the previous swing forecast and now we're into the potential drop zone. We're rallying hard off good news, which is something I tend to like selling into also.

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It's scary, and surreal. I've watched this set up ever so slowly since 2018 when I first started to look for possible ending zones for a SPX rally. Now, we're here. Something big is due to happen. The US market is trading at a major inflection point. The most critical time in the US markets in at least the last 15 yrs - possibly in my lifetime. Good luck, SPX. ...

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BTC looks like it's convincingly broken the bull trap. Some sharp pullbacks in and these often build up into a capitulation period.

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I think we're soon going to head into the capitulation fall on BTC into around the 31K area. I already have a pending order at 31K and placing one at 25K for an overshoot. Both of the targets on these are 40K. From there I'd position short again. Expecting a strong sell off and then a dead-cat bounce.

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Adding to my USDCAD buy. Think this is likely the low. If we drop under 1,756 I'll hit trailing stops on my exiting buys.