hungry_hippo

hungry_hippo

Bad numbers across the board, ES got the gap fill yesterday, now MFI is overbought. Expect it to go down until RSI hits oversold, maybe (maybe) bounce, then go for the gap fill below.

hungry_hippo

The Dow is the only major index that hasn;t filled the tariff gap. ES, RTY, and NQ have all filled teh gap.

hungry_hippo

Indicators aren't showing much but gap did fill. My SPY chart is wrong because the gap happened during the one hour break, and futures dropped before the break.

hungry_hippo

The past week, the US was the only market buying gold, Asians and Euros have been selling. Looks bearish today, going down instead of up like yesterday, I think this might be a bear flag. Target posted. Note, the arrow is for target determination, it won;t drop that fast.

hungry_hippo

SPX futures has a gap on the tariff announcement (see my ES plots), SPY has to hit $564.66 to fill that gap. I'm busy moving this week, so not playing it. Besides it looks like it's gonna whipsaw its way up anyways.

hungry_hippo

So I managed to dump my GLD holdings Tues premarket (left a comment on one of my posts Tuesday morning) because I realized that gold was doing a three drive pattern, got a pump at the end which started to sell off premarket. Not to mention, it had hit the target I posted with the big green arrow. Also, we have confirmation that my 3 hr indicator does work on GC,...

hungry_hippo

We have an open gap above and an open gap below. I assume the one above will fill first on this rate cut pump until POwell (and/or inflation numbers) squashes it then it fills the gap below. Everything is green right now, index futures, cryptos, and even gold but I assume that's because it's a commodity not because of speculative hedging. All otehr commodities...

hungry_hippo

I think the market is gonna go oversold on the daily again. It broke the wrong way out of the pennant-like structure, we still haven't heard about the electronics tariff, and we've got a slew of earnings coming up where every conf call will talk about tariffs and recession. Long on gold at least until we hit that bottom again, not shorting because of the open...

hungry_hippo

Not sure if this is a melt up or not, bit strange that RSI and MFI are moving in opposite directions. I have a long term position set up, but I'm not planning on doing big options plays unless MFI hits the red line or if I expect the stock market to drop. I might play a little tomorrow for TSLA earnings, lol. (TSLA has dropped so much it's only 2.6% of QQQ, it...

hungry_hippo

Sorry, I don't have time to post during work hours, I did comment on my last ES post though. As I mentioned, RSI hit oversold mid day on my 3hr chart with positive MFI divergence. So here's an updated plot. I can't watch the market continuously, so I didn't play the bounce. Thought about some calls EOD, but if you hold a long position overnight, you're...

hungry_hippo

Not many of my followers trade futures, but in case I don't have time to post an update before work tomorrow: 1) Another open gap down. I don't think it fills until RSI hits oversold and we get a bounce. 2) Dollar index broke support, but wouldn't surprise me if it did a backtest (maybe) 3) Gold trying to "break out" yet again, but a dollar backtest will look...

hungry_hippo

Here's a longer term view of teh dollar index. Yes, it can go down a lot further.

hungry_hippo

Dollar index hasn't broken support, and ECB meeting tomorrow. I went into gold today anyways because the pumping will counteract any rise in teh dollar, lol. If gold dips tomorrow after the meeting, I'm adding more.

hungry_hippo

Same as NQ, indicators did not go oversold yet, but looks like the EUros set up for an ECB rate cut bump tomorrow morning. MFI might hit oversold premarket tomorrow. Note that ES filled the NVDA gap but still has the original tariff gap above.

hungry_hippo

Looks like the EOD pump might be a setup for the ECB meeting tomorrow morning. Did not play it because my indicators did not hit oversold. Taking the patient approach and just waiting for a good play. I did get into sold gold though this morning. They way they're pumping gold, the dollar index won't matter as much, lol.

hungry_hippo

No idea what this market is doing, it wants the gap fill but can't figure out a way to get there, lol. It did fill the gap up from last night though. Indicators are neutral, Powell speaks Wed, ECB meeting premarket Thu so I dumped my gold premarket today. Basically a wash trade, I wish I had figured out what was going on sooner. If ECB cuts rates, you'll see...

hungry_hippo

Just wanted to point out that the dollar has already lost support in terms of the Euro, and regardless of indicators, I doubt it recovers until the next president. I see this hitting all time lows within 2 years, that's how bearish I am on the US dollar. Probably should have posted this Thursday when I posted teh gold plots.

hungry_hippo

3hr MFI is headed quickly to oversold, and the dollar index is bouncing back a little. FUtures are also green. I expect the market to bounce up when MFI gets oversold, so possibly a gap up which sells off then market goes back up? Gold trade is on hold until currency direction is determined. The dollar will eventually break though, so holding the small...