iSummer

iSummer

I'm publishing this to keep it because the trade is done. What happened? As the market anticipated the FMOC minutes, USDJPY went for about 6 hours straight. Volume decreased considerably 30 minutes before the release and it hit a double top formation. As soon as the minutes were released, it went slightly up and then after 10 or so seconds went straight down...

iSummer Updated 

This looks like a perfect picture of the uncertainty about Brexit. Watch out for a break either way for some pips. I'm biased to the short side because of fundamental strength in the dollar. Watching out for those Fed Minutes and the vote in Parliament.

iSummer Updated 

Three fundamental factors driving this: higher probability of interest rate in the coming months in the US, sluggish economic indicators in the EU and Brexit uncertainty. On the technical side, yearly, weekly and monthly trend down. Weekly and yearly fibonacci levels at 1.04527. Looking for an entry on a bounce up and closer to the blue trend line when given a...

iSummer Updated 

Found this almost perfect bat pattern on gold on what I think should be a down trend, if completed to a lower retracement, it should give us fuel for that pop on USDJPY. My trade is on USDJPY, gold's target would be 1234.20 and USDJPY's target would be 113.473, taking profit a bit before at 113.460. Notice the strong bias of USDJPY upwards even though Gold has...

iSummer Updated 

This is where I am at right now after a successful long and a missed short. 1. break from downward trend line 2. second trend line not confrimed yet, so it looks more like a consolidation. 3. fundamental bullish bias based on positive US' fundamentals, so i think i could bounce up, although the proabbility of it going down is around 50% since it comes from a...

iSummer Updated 

A bit of a gamble to be honest, but there's enough evidence from this year to support a gap down this weekend. I labeled all the previous gaps this year and why I think they happened. I've put a very small position on a short gap down since I believe our support from this week's trend down is around 112.450. If it pays off, I'm closing it as soon as market opens...

iSummer Updated 

On a fundamental basis, the US economy has shown relative strength to its developed peers. Specifically, in the comparison vs Japan, US GDP has shown a growth of 1.9% vs the last reported number for Japan of -0.3%, confirming long term trend of weakness of yen vs us dollar and the uptrend of USDJPY. Technically we seem to be on a consolidation area, exasperated...

iSummer Updated 

Is the dollar index DXY forming a crab harmonic pattern in anticipation of good unemployment data? Given very positive employment data on ADP Nonfarm Employment Chage with came out 246k vs a forest of 165k and the better than expected Jobless Claims number of 246k vs 250k forecast; the DXY seems posed to make a bull run if the Unemployment Rate beats the forecast...

iSummer Updated 

potential bullish butterfly pattern

iSummer Updated 

although API Weekly Crude Oil Stock is coming up today and tomorrow we have EIA Crude Oil Stock change, WTI seems to be setting up for a short in a few days... fundamentals like inventories, rigs and any announcements from OPEC members might change it

iSummer Updated 

seems to be making a bullish abcd patter,

iSummer Updated 

Just for a couple of hours thought, I still think it's planing to look for that 1.23657 at the 1 Fibonacci

iSummer Updated 

I'm still long on fundamentals long term since, to summarize, the US has the strongest economy in the developed world at this moment. In the medium term and intraday, I'm looking for a confirmation of an upward channel and following price action strategies to go long at breaks until the top of the channel. I'm skeptical about scalping shorts but a good short might...

iSummer Updated 

On a fundamental basis, I am short USOIL long term since I believe a higher price will only incentivize higher production which will lead to higher inventories and therefore lower price, with price balancing out over the long term near the marginal cost of production for shale producers which is around 40-45 per barrel. On market sentiment basis, I see the...

iSummer Updated 

Today we got a lot of fundamentals for Japan and the US. Japan's rate policy was unchanged and it remained in -0.10%; United States' leading indicators of Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index and Consumer Confidence disappointed coming out at 50.3 vs 55 consensus and 111.8 vs a consensus of 112.5 respectively. On top of that, US GDP disappointed with a 1.9% vs a...

iSummer Updated 

Waiting for confirmation of bat pattern in about 1d 17hr will entry on a reversal signal around D point 1.06973 take profit 1 at Fibonacci level from D to C 0.382 at 1.06648 take profit 2 at Fibonacci level from D to C 0.618 at 1.06547 take profit 3 at Fibonacci level from D to C 0.786 at 1.06447 shade your entry and take profits Good luck.

iSummer Updated 

are we gonna play this game all week? USDJPY on up trend seems to be forming an other bearish harmonic.. to be used for shorting the corrections. Entry at D point @ 114.107 Take profit @ 113.940 Only one take profit since it will hit the trend line again. Shade your entries, take profits. Good luck.

iSummer Updated 

Given the fact that the DXY Index has signaled a trend reversal, and mostly the fact that XAUUSD has broken it's monthly trend, I think we are about o see a long in USDJPY if it also breaks it's monthly downward trend line.