iamroot

iamroot Updated 

S&P futures have clearly broken out from the downtrend which started at the beginning of this year. Open interest information has been less reliable for the past week due to rollover from the March to June contract. OI change across all contract months was close to unchanged for Thursday and Friday. If the rally continues early next week, overhead resistance may...

iamroot Updated 

A very strong close in S&P futures today after a drive down on the FOMC release that closed the gap from the previous day. The close significantly above the downward trendline on the daily chart breaks the downtrend. The close also left a late spike. A late spike is range extension into the close with no time left for the market to show acceptance or rejection...

iamroot

The PacketCrypt network's native token, PKT is now trading on Bittrex Global and Bitmart as of today. PacketCrypt is a project to disintermediate the internet service and replace telco monopolies with a decentralized bandwidth Marketplace. The goal of PKT is to build a decentralized bandwidth marketplace where hundreds of cloud ISPs buy bandwidth from mesh-nets...

iamroot Updated 

Here's something I've been watching lately: the VIX has been painting a parabolic curve under its lows. We can see above there is a slightly descending resistance line with three perfect points of contact. It appears to be building balance higher and setting up for a breakout. If this was any stock painting this chart pattern, I would be buying it hand over fist...

iamroot

BTC is currently trading sideways. Also it is very sideways. Mostly, it's just sideways... SERIOUSLY guys, it's NOT doing anything right now! Stop writing about it! We've been in sideways consolidation for over two months now. There's nothing to write about. Nobody has any idea if/when/where it will go from here. The market is clearly in a state of...

iamroot

The pricing of the VIX futures tracking ETN VXX no longer reflects reality. Barclays has halted new issuance of both the VXX and OIL ETNs. Existing shares of VXX are being bid up far beyond the movement in the underlying futures market. As I mentioned in a previous post, (linked below), I believe the VIX is setting up for a breakout to the upside. I...

iamroot

This is what happens when two of the world's largest wheat producers start fighting each other.

iamroot Updated 

The downtrend is still very much intact. Preliminary numbers from Friday show an -8.8k drop in open interest across all months in the ES. A sharp rally after a downtrend, coinciding with a drop in open interest, indicates a short covering rally. Buyer beware!

iamroot Updated 

Russia's currency is about to go the way of the Turkish Lira. The dumpster fire is already lit. I'm sure that Putin already calculated this as a given cost of pursuing his agenda, so it'll be interesting to see what sort of contingencies he has planned. I'm not taking this trade, just planning to watch the fireworks. Got my popcorn ready.

iamroot

Theoretically, Bitcoin's fixed monetary supply makes it an inflation hedge. Unfortunately, markets don't give a shit about your theories. Price action is the final answer. Bitcoin's price action has failed to trend higher with oil and gold. Bitcoin has rallied during risk-on periods and fallen during risk-off periods. Bitcoin's price action proves that the...

iamroot Updated 

The trading range from 41500 down to 28800 is once again in play. The market has settled back into this range, but has yet to retest the bottom of the range. Currently there is a 2-day balance area forming at the top of the range, after Friday's breakout through the downward trendline from all time highs. I'm not looking for a breakout here. I expect the market to...

iamroot

This move came sooner than I expected. Price has already broken out of the wedge and closed last week decisively above it. I expect an uptrend to follow for the next several months. This is a follow up to a previous post.

iamroot

The attempted breakout was confirmed last week. The long term up trend in price is expected to continue. This is a follow up from my previous post.

iamroot

The BTCUSD price is much more likely to search for support in the $48k-53k area than to continue the trend higher. Trading volume has dropped off considerably in the past week. Also, nearly every commodities market has pulled back in the past week. The possibility of a broad-based market selloff also poses a risk to bitcoin. Equities are higher on lower volume and...

iamroot

This trend divergence is continuing to build on both the weekly and daily charts. Part of what causes this divergence in the volume weighted directional bias indicator is a drop-off in trading volume as the rally progresses. We're entering a seasonally strong time of year for equities, so it's hard to take a bearish outlook. Just the same I'll be watching this...

iamroot

Long term trend still intact. Trend continuation expected. I've been expecting a breakout from this wedge pattern for a couple weeks. Last week, the breakout did happen, but price returned to close the week back inside the wedge. I still hold that the technical pattern is extremely bullish. Fundamentals for wheat are also bullish with rising fertilizer and energy...

iamroot

I've been watching this structure build all year. It's still developing, and I'm not expecting that a breakout is imminent yet. A breakout above this formation should lead to a significant rally. My fundamental outlook on gold is extremely bullish as well. Just look up a chart of the M2 money supply on the FRED website. I'll be treating any dips below $1700 as...

iamroot

As I expected a week ago, crude futures have begun to pull back from the upper bound of the trend channel on the weekly chart, and the market is entering a consolidative phase. A test of the 76.90 level looks like a probable target. If this level holds as support, that would confirm the uptrend is still intact. A break below this could take the market at least to...