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Expectations are mounting that the BoE would implement additional rate cuts. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has stated that inflation is decreasing more rapidly than anticipated. The UK CPI for September registered at 1.7%, falling short of the central bank's 2% target, which has intensified speculation about upcoming rate increases. Wall Street is convinced that...

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Japan's ruling party has faced a devastating defeat in the general election, leading to a surge of political uncertainty that has driven the yen to its lowest in three months. If PM Ishiba resigns and is succeeded by the dovish Sanae Takaichi as president of the Liberal Democratic Party, concerns about the BoJ's plan to raise interest rates will intensify. This...

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As the threat of a resurgence in inflation with the reckless fiscal policies that are likely to follow the presidential election loom, gold is firmly holding its ground around its historical high. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with soaring demand in China and India, are driving up gold prices. Furthermore, the uncertainty surrounding the US...

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Bank of France governor Villeroy de Galhau emphasized that the eurozone economy is in a precarious state, with the ECB continuing to impose high interest rates that further restrict economic activity. Additionally, Finland's central bank governor, Oli Rehn, stated that the prospects for economic growth have deteriorated in recent months, which is likely to...

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The dollar continues to strengthen as a result of the robust US economy. Conversely, the yen's value is deteriorating due to uncertainty surrounding the BoJ's interest rate policy and the dovish stance of committee members. Last week's release of US September retail sales and unemployment claims data reaffirmed US’ strong spending power and solid job market...

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Worries about a potential recession in the eurozone, coupled with the ECB's decision to implement further rate cuts, are negatively impacting the sentiment toward the euro. Spain's September CPI (YoY) dropped to 1.5%, marking the lowest since April 2021, while France's CPI (YoY) came in at 1.1%, falling short of the market consensus of 1.2%. Moreover, Germany's...

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With escalating geopolitical tensions, the demand for gold has surged significantly. Gold prices continued to climb, surpassing 2,700 USD for the first time. According to Bloomberg, the demand for gold as a safe haven has risen amid increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Moreover, gold prices surged due to the unpredictable US presidential election,...

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The Eurozone CPI significantly undershot market expectations, prompting the ECB to implement additional rate cuts. In Sep, Eurozone CPI stood at 1.7%, falling short of the projected 1.8% and decelerating by 0.5% from the previous month's 2.2%. This marks the first instance in 40 months that Eurozone CPI has dipped below 2% since Jun 2021. The ECB has...

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The UK's September Claimant Count Change rose to 27.9K, surpassing the market expectation of 20.2K. The UK unemployment rate in August dropped to 4.0%, the lowest level since last April. Attention now turns to the UK's September CPI results, with the market expecting a decrease to 1.9% from the previous 2.2%. If the CPI slows down, it could lead to increased...

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The market anticipates the ECB reducing rates further at its upcoming monetary policy meeting this week. This is due to the eurozone inflation rate dropping to 1.8%, which already meets the central bank's target. Moreover, mounting worries about an economic recession have amplified the demand for the ECB to persist with interest rate cuts. If the Eurozone...

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The September CPI exceeding market expectations has reduced the likelihood of a Fed’s jumbo cut, leading to a sharp increase in the dollar and Treasury yields. The probability of a 50bp cut is now at 0%, with a 10.4% chance of rates remaining unchanged. However, despite the dollar going north, gold prices are getting attention, approaching all-time highs, partly...

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Following the Fed's lead, the RBNZ also took a big step. The RBNZ took the jumbo step of cutting its benchmark interest rate by 50bps, bringing it down from 5.25% to 4.75%. RBNZ stated that New Zealand's economy is now in excess capacity, and low import prices fuel deflation. They insisted that the committee unanimously confirmed that domestic economic activity...

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Sterling is exhibiting weakness as a robust US economy bolsters the dollar. With the likelihood of a substantial Fed rate cut now nullified by the strong US job market, speculation of further rate cuts by the BoE in November is exerting downward pressure on the GBPUSD. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's statement about the potential for more aggressive rate cuts in...

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The Fed's possibility of making another jumbo cut quickly faded following September's NFP report, which renewed confidence in the US job market. According to CME FedWatch, the likelihood of a 50bp cut at the November FOMC has dropped from 36.8% to 0%, while the probability of a 25bp cut has surged to 88.8%. It's worth noting that the likelihood of a rate freeze...

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The Eurozone Retail Trade (Aug) increased by 0.2%(MoM), reaching a five-month high in line with expectations. However, the annual figures fell below expectations, indicating a general decline in consumer spending. In contrast, German factory orders experienced a significant 5.8%(MoM) decrease (previously 3.9%, consensus -1.9%). These conflicting economic...

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EURUSD has remained range-bound between 1.1100~1.1215 for the week amidst escalating debates on whether the ECB will implement further rate cuts. Germany's September CPI has dropped to 1.6% YoY, down from the previous month's 1.9%. Market expectations indicate that the eurozone's CPI will decrease to 1.9% in September from 2.2%, marking the first time it has...

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The RBA is less likely to cut rates as Australia's labor market remains tight. Australia's Aug Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%, while labor participation surged to a record high of 67.1%. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers emphasized that the increasing number of jobs and opportunities for Australians is a very encouraging development. The RBA also...

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The RBA is less likely to cut rates as Australia's labor market remains tight. Australia's Aug Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%, while labor participation surged to a record high of 67.1%. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers emphasized that the increasing number of jobs and opportunities for Australians is a very encouraging development. The RBA also...