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Worries about a potential recession in the eurozone, coupled with the ECB's decision to implement further rate cuts, are negatively impacting the sentiment toward the euro. Spain's September CPI (YoY) dropped to 1.5%, marking the lowest since April 2021, while France's CPI (YoY) came in at 1.1%, falling short of the market consensus of 1.2%. Moreover, Germany's...

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With escalating geopolitical tensions, the demand for gold has surged significantly. Gold prices continued to climb, surpassing 2,700 USD for the first time. According to Bloomberg, the demand for gold as a safe haven has risen amid increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Moreover, gold prices surged due to the unpredictable US presidential election,...

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The Eurozone CPI significantly undershot market expectations, prompting the ECB to implement additional rate cuts. In Sep, Eurozone CPI stood at 1.7%, falling short of the projected 1.8% and decelerating by 0.5% from the previous month's 2.2%. This marks the first instance in 40 months that Eurozone CPI has dipped below 2% since Jun 2021. The ECB has...

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The UK's September Claimant Count Change rose to 27.9K, surpassing the market expectation of 20.2K. The UK unemployment rate in August dropped to 4.0%, the lowest level since last April. Attention now turns to the UK's September CPI results, with the market expecting a decrease to 1.9% from the previous 2.2%. If the CPI slows down, it could lead to increased...

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The market anticipates the ECB reducing rates further at its upcoming monetary policy meeting this week. This is due to the eurozone inflation rate dropping to 1.8%, which already meets the central bank's target. Moreover, mounting worries about an economic recession have amplified the demand for the ECB to persist with interest rate cuts. If the Eurozone...

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The September CPI exceeding market expectations has reduced the likelihood of a Fed’s jumbo cut, leading to a sharp increase in the dollar and Treasury yields. The probability of a 50bp cut is now at 0%, with a 10.4% chance of rates remaining unchanged. However, despite the dollar going north, gold prices are getting attention, approaching all-time highs, partly...

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Following the Fed's lead, the RBNZ also took a big step. The RBNZ took the jumbo step of cutting its benchmark interest rate by 50bps, bringing it down from 5.25% to 4.75%. RBNZ stated that New Zealand's economy is now in excess capacity, and low import prices fuel deflation. They insisted that the committee unanimously confirmed that domestic economic activity...

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Sterling is exhibiting weakness as a robust US economy bolsters the dollar. With the likelihood of a substantial Fed rate cut now nullified by the strong US job market, speculation of further rate cuts by the BoE in November is exerting downward pressure on the GBPUSD. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's statement about the potential for more aggressive rate cuts in...

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The Fed's possibility of making another jumbo cut quickly faded following September's NFP report, which renewed confidence in the US job market. According to CME FedWatch, the likelihood of a 50bp cut at the November FOMC has dropped from 36.8% to 0%, while the probability of a 25bp cut has surged to 88.8%. It's worth noting that the likelihood of a rate freeze...

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The Eurozone Retail Trade (Aug) increased by 0.2%(MoM), reaching a five-month high in line with expectations. However, the annual figures fell below expectations, indicating a general decline in consumer spending. In contrast, German factory orders experienced a significant 5.8%(MoM) decrease (previously 3.9%, consensus -1.9%). These conflicting economic...

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EURUSD has remained range-bound between 1.1100~1.1215 for the week amidst escalating debates on whether the ECB will implement further rate cuts. Germany's September CPI has dropped to 1.6% YoY, down from the previous month's 1.9%. Market expectations indicate that the eurozone's CPI will decrease to 1.9% in September from 2.2%, marking the first time it has...

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The RBA is less likely to cut rates as Australia's labor market remains tight. Australia's Aug Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%, while labor participation surged to a record high of 67.1%. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers emphasized that the increasing number of jobs and opportunities for Australians is a very encouraging development. The RBA also...

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The RBA is less likely to cut rates as Australia's labor market remains tight. Australia's Aug Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%, while labor participation surged to a record high of 67.1%. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers emphasized that the increasing number of jobs and opportunities for Australians is a very encouraging development. The RBA also...

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EURUSD advanced to the 1.1140 level after breaching the descending channel’s upper bound as the dollar’s weakness intensified. EMA21 is widening the gap after golden-crossing EMA78, indicating an apparent bullish signal. If EURUSD holds above EMA21, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 1.1200 resistance. Conversely, if EURUSD fails to keep the...

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BYD and Li Auto dropped by 5.57% and 7.29%, respectively, exerting a decisive impact on the decline of HK50. Despite BYD's reporting of favorable 2Q earnings with a 26% increase in sales, the results fell below expectations. Meanwhile, Li Auto's 2Q performance was down 45% YoY, while sales increased by 10%. However, the 5.6% decline in electric vehicle...

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The US July PCE was in line with market consensus. Headline PCE prices rose 0.2% from a month ago and 2.5% from a year ago, which aligns with market expectations. Core PCE, the Fed's price benchmark, rose only 0.16%, slower than the previous month's 0.18%. This is the lowest level this year and has catalyzed the market sentiment of the Fed’s rate cut. It is...

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Due to the expanding armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, supply instability has surged in the crude oil market. Oil prices shot up by 3% in a single day due to temporary halts in oil production caused by political risks in Libya. While geopolitical risks have not significantly impacted oil prices in recent weeks, escalating tensions will likely...

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US30 is showing a continuous uptrend as expectations for the US economy arise, along with the anticipation that Chairman Powell may provide clues about rate cuts at the Jackson Hole meeting. Goldman Sachs lowered its 12-month recession probability for the US economy from 25% to 20% following the release of July retail sales and jobless claims data. The current...