investigator

investigator

Some positive technical action has prompted me to draw some future projections (Blue dash). First what has happened: The pull back 4 weeks ago was the second recent and 4th test overall of solid support at $338 (black line). $257 is where panic will start if action dips that far down. Yellow arrows mark the major capitulation level marking $135 as the...

investigator

The attempted trend break a few weeks back was premature as the blue dotted resistance line I drew almost 9 months ago (see my July 2015 commentary) proved to be too strong. Since it emanates from the $1200 peak of the BTC price history over two years ago, even I was surprised at the strength of resistance. The coarse correction is the new dotted red line...

investigator

I focus on the long term - 1 to 2 month future in this commentary. I reserve short term analysis for a select few individuals. I am long term bullish. The pullback has happened although not as much as I speculated 4 weeks ago. READ PREVIOUS COMMENTARY for links to fundamentals pointing at upside support. Although the technical situation is changing from...

investigator

Is it time for a double top? I made a slight modification to the unconfirmed downward trend line, the dashed blue, The dashed red is a confirmed trend marking the current rally. Top resistance is at $490 slightly lower than the blow-off top 5 weeks ago. Effectively we are still in the wedge I previously spoke of in an add-on note. I have to admit this rally...

investigator

We're right on time for a correction. See my previous estimates linked below. First, the blow-off-top at $500 was way beyond my expectation. It launched with the greatest volume we've seen since the beginning of the "Panic Zone" plunges and much more than the surge to $1200. The combination of lower panic volume in the second plunge and huge exuberance in...

investigator

Some things to note before I plunge into a projection. Panic volume was much lower on the second test of the Panic Zone bottom. The weak sellers are almost gone. There is technical banter between the "keepers" of the hash chain. Do we fork my way or do we fork your way. Maybe either way we're forked! This waffle of doom talk caused some major exits that...

investigator

The weekly chart is currently showing the third attempt to break the old Panic Zone ceiling. I was a little wrong on the timing of the powder keg event that would propel buyers through the resistance that has been in place since January. I thought the Greek Tragedy would be the source and that this would take a long time to unfold. What I didn't anticipate was...

investigator

Just a recap for the newbies: The Panic zone starts at $275. The absolute bottom of course is 0 but the practical bottom is at $135. This was the 3rd approach to an upside rally through the top of the zone and it is looking like a failure as weakness is just starting to creep into the current rally. A new support has been established at $218ish and this...

investigator

It's been a while since my last observation. The price movement has bounced around in The Panic Zone for over 3 months and can't get out. This little spew downward is a strong indicator of buyers giving up, throwing in the towel. I don't know if you caught it but there was a little article in Consumer Reports about Bitcoin. They conveniently left out the...

investigator

I have been talking about the "Panic Zone" since last September. The only difference is that we are now in the middle of the zone and there is so much panic, historically high volume, that the price has moved below the one year trend line. That's a little too much blood in the streets and the "crows" are swooping in to pick at the bones. Crows are early...

investigator

As my great friend Thom said, "It's never too early to panic...." , and I ask rhetorically "How many times do you have to panic?" Well, I think three times is enough. This is the third visit to the zone and this drop looks like it has the makings of a finale. Riding on top of a 1 year old trend line, I would say chances are favorable for another look at...

investigator

A confirmation of a change in character discussed in the previous report. This is the start of a new uptrend trading channel. Only the 3rd weekly uptrend in Bitcoin history. We're probably just a few days away from the 3rd Bitcoin weekly MACD crossover. This is also combined with a down trend trading channel upper boundary breach. For one day chart...

investigator

A wee bit of support has crept into the weekly chart at the current level. A move up or even sideways at a minimum will achieve two things at once in long term significance. The major down trend line starting in December of last year can be broken and a double bottom support structure will form at the nascent red uptrend line. Look at April to May. Is history...

investigator

This is the followup chart to the previous commentary. Please read those. They are linked to this one. Notice the large volume and the drop out of the bottom of the 6 month long trading channel.

investigator

This the third commentary on the Panic Zone. Please read the other two links first. This is the weekly chart but the 1 day chart shows very clearly a large volume move throught the bottom of the long term trading channel and also slicing down throught the last remnants of Panic Zone support. There is currently no reason to be long in the Bitcoin market. My...

investigator

I'm a big BTC enthusiast. I think it's a wonderful and very useful invention. I think the long term prospects of value are good. However, I am also pragmatic. BTC is in the final throws of a bear run that started at the beginning of the year, had a brief respite in April and since has resumed the bear posture. The true test will be at $340. A plunge...

investigator

Major confluence bull and bear wedge breakout on cup with handle formation at the wedge point.

investigator

Major down trend channel test by up channel.