jackrabbitrage

jackrabbitrage

As nerely a perma-bear, I post this that could be merely a copium. Just a memo. If it seems this is valid, I will elaborate on it later.

jackrabbitrage Updated 

A rough sketch of two predicted bearish paths. We could see five pivots as one wave (of course, the breakout of the previous high would invalidate this assumption). If it's WXYXZ- black. If it's a less-than-ideal impulse wave, 12345. This is derived from potential S&R that Gann Square, wave analysis, and the pitchfork can assume.

jackrabbitrage Updated 

As BTC's price gradually declines, more and more analysts identify those right-down parallel channels. Because a parallel channel allows for an interpretation as a complex corrective wave in the language of Elliott wave theory, we are inclined to read this as WXY or WXYXZ. True, patterns like those provide more precise explanations compared to their absence....

jackrabbitrage Updated 

This is an update for one of my previous ideas . I've posted several Gann-Square-based analyses for the BTC market, but I feel this one could be the best of those. If BTC marks a new low at least on the daily timeframe, which I feel is likely, my Gann Square should underline 24.25k and 19k as primary, and Gann Fan does 23.4k and 22.1 as secondary. But, most...

jackrabbitrage

I post the geometry—no precise prediction. Recently I've thought that if the perma-bulls go short on measuring sticks, someone must help them handle the long-term thing. But this could also apply to perma-bears- what would you see?

jackrabbitrage

BTC tried the Gann Square's arc and stagnated there for a while - the chart is developing precisely as we predicted . After the black swan summons the dragon, a cypher (.786) or a shark (.886) pattern is expected next. Usually, the chart rebounds approximately between 0.5 and 0.618, even when the consecutive pattern formation isn't inhibited. However, we...

jackrabbitrage Updated 

BTC has been rejected at the apparent resistance of the 25200 zone. Gann Square, as applied, also implies that the buy-side liquidity above is hard to reach. Moreover, a harmonic black swan pattern (black) has formed, which would trigger another potential bearish harmonic pattern - a dragon (red). The bearish dragon's target would be 0.618 (20104) -0.786...

jackrabbitrage

With a harmonic black swan's fluttering, BTC has broken the daily trendline (green) as the support, forming a red, bearish dragon pattern. This price action is precisely what we predicted in our previous idea . Please look at the related ideas for the further development expected to follow.

jackrabbitrage

This is the sequel to my previous idea . The support line of the diagonal triangle has finally been broken. The coordinate of point (A) was erroneous, so I corrected it. TOTAL and Nen-star patterns formed. Recommended TPs unchanged (see also gray-color zones of the Fibonacci extension.) For details, please take a look at the related ideas below.

jackrabbitrage

This is a sequel to my previous idea . The diagonal triangle's unexpected, extended wave 5 (possibly an expanding diagonal) morphed the bearish white swan into a bearish anti-butterfly. The basic strategy stays the same, but the basis for calculus would be slightly different. Target is unchanged anyway. If this breakout forms wave 5 of the impulse, a drop...

jackrabbitrage

We may witness a fractal move of the daily chart as wave 4 of a potential bearish impulse. A bearish expanded flat (possibly a running flat) is expected with a bearish White Swan harmonic pattern. SL above 23300. Recommended 23350 (see the trendline right up). TP 22400-22700. I also predicted wave 2 would be an Elliott flat, which revealed it was not (it seems...

jackrabbitrage

If the struggling BTC holds on to the support and shows its final flutter, it may form an expanding, possibly running flat as wave 2 of a progressive downward wave. Such a movement may form a Deep Crab harmonic pattern. Just an idea and could be easily invalidated, but if BTC had formed a larger expanded flat on a higher level, it wouldn't be so surprising that...

jackrabbitrage Updated 

I've posted many times on this exactly the same counting in the sense of the Elliott wave theory. This time I elaborate on it. In this hypothesis, we are in X of WXY, whose bottom could be 7500 +- 2000, a roughly 1.236-1.272 retracement from the 65k & 69k double tops or the inverted A&E. This double zigzag should be a global 4th wave. This scenario will be...

jackrabbitrage Updated 

There is a scenario branch in a lower timeframe, even if we are on a bearish path. What is this triangular shape? i) Triple three WXY as bearish wave 2. I'm in support of this scenario. Likely to fall from around 25200. ii) Triangle ABCDE or 12ABCDE as bullish wave 4 of wave 5. The ceiling is 25600-25900, but I am skeptical of BTC making a new high before the...

jackrabbitrage

Is this an expanded flat, a corrective wave in the Elliott wave theory? If so, we should already have seen a similar, possibly fractal, formation on our daily chart . If this is the case, what will happen? One of its consequences would be the commencement of another downtrend (I have already examined this scenario several times. see the links). Otherwise,...

jackrabbitrage

Overall, everything is going along with our predictions. BTC formed a bearish Seahorse , metamorphosing into a bearish Dragon , substantially achieving its target, and then testing one of the parallel channels effective for months. I presented the idea of forming a triple zigzag with a pitchfork, but the chart also seems different. If this 21400 level holds,...

jackrabbitrage

BTC got rejected at 4H Ichimoku cloud, and the bearish dragon pattern is still valid. With its cleanest theoretical target being a .786 retracement of XC, the prescribed bearish movement is likely if the price fails to mark a new high. Considering parallel channels serving as S & R for months, a WXY formation (double zigzag) would be a candidate movement....

jackrabbitrage

This is a sequel to my previous idea . As we predicted, BTC substantially formed a bearish seahorse pattern, which induced a sharp drop already matching a roughly 1.5 BC extension from point D. I expect a bearish dragon follows next. The target is 0.786 retracement from the top to the "tail" (point X) of the sea horse, which is approximately the 21200-21250...