jdemunter

jdemunter

In the previous post about usdcad price needed to go above the red line ( wave W high ). This has happened and price is now looking for a reversal after a very strong uptrend. The shooting star candle on the monthly is a good sign the trend has possibly ended. The internal structure of wave Y can be counted in 2 ways i believe, first is the one shown in the chart,...

jdemunter

Oil has reached a short term top after a corrective rally, the question is how deep will the next wave go. Following the main EW count from the previous post suggests that the low will not be broken and the decline is a corrective wave B.

jdemunter

If we look at the price of oil today, it seems oil will be around for a long time to come. I believe the world, or at least some parts of the world are running out of oil ! An important place like the north sea will probably be the first of major fields to run dry. This would mean europe will be forced to import oil from other places, allowing for these places to...

jdemunter

From the wave A (circle) high there are 2 equal legs lower and a nice falling channel. Price is now at the bottom of that channel and with the big market moving event, NFP, tomorrow, a bottom could be forming to end wave B (circle).

jdemunter

The triangle count worked out like expected, the last obstacle for the bull run in the form of wave Y, is the possibility of wave X(circle) not being finished yet. Candlesticks on weekly and daily are bearish, and from the 1.1090 low (sept 3th) there are 2 equal legs. In EW these equal legs would be a double three to form wave B of wave X(circle). But this is the...

jdemunter

Not much has changed since the last post. The triangle count seems the most probable count now. Look for wave E to end with 2 equal legs, around 1.1171. The alternative count is for a double three from the wave A (circle) high.

jdemunter

While the count i posted in the previous post is still valid, the size of the decline is big enough to raise suspicion. That's why i present this new count where wave B/X (circle) is not yet finished. Currently a triangle seems like the best count, but with NFP this friday, perhaps a double three is a more prudent count. This would mean price will spike lower...

jdemunter

The EW count I have been posting the last couple of days/weeks assumes that wave X (circle) is already complete, this is the most bullish possibility. The alternative is that wave X (circle) finishes further in price and/or time. Back to the main count, price looks like it will continue the uptrend after the decline from the fed news event. The decline is...

jdemunter

In the last post about Usd/Jpy i mentioned a top was near, price has come down nicely since then. This decline was corrective and this EW count suggests price is ready to break out of a triangle wave B and continue the trend lower again.

jdemunter

The rally from the 1.1085 low is corrective. This means there a lot of possible counts. I present this count as it follows my previous idea, which is most bullish. Other possibilities like a big triangle or bigger corrective wave from the 1.1714 high are the alternatives.

jdemunter

There's a possibility that wave B(circle) has bottomed or is close to doing so. Wave (Y) is small compared to wave (W) but price has touched the 50% fib from the entire wave A(circle) rally. It is of course possible that wave B(circle) will transform into a bigger corrective wave and this is only a first wave in that corrective wave.

jdemunter

Previous post showed potential for lower prices in a corrective way. This is what happened but i still expect price to go just a little lower.1.1043 or 1.0944 are possible ending points for a big wave B. After this low look for price to start a new uptrend which will take price above the 1.1712 high.

jdemunter

Following the EW count that has price in a wave B now, here is a possible wave count. Lower prices expected as long as 1.1364 is intact. Target is around 1.0950, at this price there will be equal legs inside wave B, 61.8% fibonacci retracement from the wave A rally and the trend line support from the daily trend line.

jdemunter

The corrective uptrend has it's first wave completed as a double three (wxy). Now price is in a wave B. There will be a lot of possible ending points for wave B as it can always transform into a bigger wave. For now i will focus on the most bullish possibility, which has wave B finishing around the 50% fibonacci retracement of the rally from 1.04625 to 1.17140 at...

jdemunter

From the 2009 high price has been in a downtrend to form a perfect channel. This downtrend is now finished as price has reached the bottom of the channel and made a double three (wxy) corrective pattern. Look for eur/gbp to rally and eventually break the channel to the upside.

jdemunter

Let me start by saying that i had a hard time counting these waves and confidence has been higher, but one thing is clear the bigger trend ( and count ) is up. Here is the update from the count from the last post. Very small corrective waves down and surprise after surprise to the upside. This count suggest that a small top is near. Where the trouble in...

jdemunter

For the last couple of days i've been talking about the trend line and now price has bounced of it. The rally is the start of a wave y (circle) of W of (Y). Inside this wave y (circle), a first corrective wave seems to have finished or could finish a little higher at 1.1235 (+/-). There is another trend line which could serve of support.

jdemunter

Since the previous post price has extended the decline to test the trend line. The trend line was recognized by the market as resistance but acts as support now. As for the wave structure, we can see a triple three (wxyxz) from the wave w(circle) top. This type of correction is uncommon and has to be confirmed by price going above 1.1125. Alternative count has one...