jdemunter

jdemunter

The hardest thing in elliott wave are corrections and transformation of these corrective structures. We are now at one of those tough places where the corrective rally from the top is finished but is still quite small. With transformations i mean the wave can extend in time (become a triangle where we have the first leg finished) or price ( bigger double three...

jdemunter

I believe it is important to see that the trend has turned up. Price has put in higher lows and higher highs since July 20th and has broken a trend line which held the entire month of July. As for an Elliott Wave count, price is in the early stages of wave Y. Price has most likely finished a first wave inside this wave Y and is now looking for a corrective wave to...

jdemunter

Yesterday i warned that a break of the trend line was imminent. I was looking for prices to go a little lower first but the elliott wave count remains exactly the same. Today the break happened and prices rallied higher to just above 1.12. Now things get interesting again because the count presented yesterday suggests that this is the end of a first corrective...

jdemunter

While the previous count suggesting a wave 3 break of the red trend line where price would be in a 1-2-i-ii now is still possible, a double three (wxy) seems more probable now. The idea is the same, the trend is up, it will just take a little longer since price is looking for a wave x, a deeper correction than what we would see in an impulsive rally. When this...

jdemunter

NFP had a lot of people fooled in what is a wave B decline. This wave went pretty low but remember that waves tend to extend during big news events. The following rally looks like a start of an impulsive wave which would be wave 1 of C. Next week will be interesting since we could start the week with a wave 3 of C rally.

jdemunter

With NFP just 2 days away, price is showing a wedge pointing down. Tomorrow's news from England could lead to an early breakout. I am still holding to my EW count and say we're going higher in wave Y. It's also important to know that the alternative count, where wave X isn't finished yet but needs one more low, has a low just slightly lower, just sub 1.08. Of...

jdemunter

Yesterday there was a possibility of price transforming into a triangle wave, but this has now been invalidated. There's a lot of evidence for a bottom, the channel bottom, equal legs from wave (a) top and 76.4% fib retracement of wave (a). Only thing left is for price to rally and confirm the count.

jdemunter

2 equal legs from the bottom split by a triangle. With this friday's nfp coming it could mean bad news for usdjpy. If the count is correct, this price level won't be seen for the next couple of months at least.

jdemunter

There are 2 main possibilities at this point. The first is a triangle count, the second has price going a little lower first in double three. Both counts say this is a wave B and that price will go higher without going below 1.0875.

jdemunter

Eur/usd has extended the correction lower but now finds (early) support at the 50% fibonacci retracement where there are also equal legs. On top of that there's a nice hammer candle on the 4H chart. Chances of a rally breaking the trendline resistance are high.

jdemunter

Since the low, price had a corrective rally which is part of a bigger corrective rally that will take eur/usd over 1.14. I expect price to go to 1.10 and reverse higher. It is possible that wave X is not complete yet and it corrects deeper, but in the end the result will be the same, wave W high will be broken soon.

jdemunter

Gold vs US Dollar is in a bear market and the trend is down. The decline is clearly corrective. Price is about to enter a smaller degree counter trend.

jdemunter

The rally from the bottom is corrective. Highest probability has wave X already finished but a triangle could still be forming. Direction stays pretty much the same : up.

jdemunter

This count is harder because there are a few different ways to count it. The only thing that is sure is that this whole decline is corrective. I say this with confidence because the start of the decline is a very clear corrective wave.

jdemunter

Usd/Cad has had a nice rally since the 2011 low, but like the blue numbers on the chart show, it has rallied in 7 waves. With price almost exceeding the wave W high from 2009 price should soon be topping, to finish a double three corrective wave (WXY).

jdemunter

The small triangle count has been invalidated, which is actually good because now the alternative counts have gained in power. The first count is the bigger triangle as shown in the chart. The alternative is for price to dip below the red line to finish a double 3 from the wave (W) top.

jdemunter

If 1.0915 can hold (wave c low) this triangle is very close to ending or being invalidated with wave e dipping below the a-c trendline and price being close to the wave c low. The 2 other possibilities i keep a close eye on are a bigger triangle or the double 3 from the wave W high. Either way, i believe chances are bigger that price will go above 1.14 than going...

jdemunter

2 main EW counts at the moment, both show limited downside for euro vs us dollar