jmboyer1

jmboyer1

SPY broke up through ascending wedge/channel again today (highlighted) much as it's done previously in Dec '13 and Mar '14...these breaches were followed by retreats to lower levels b/f moving back up. However, this time seems different; secondary indicators show sentiment at extreme bullish levels, margin levels at all time highs and we're very long in the tooth...

jmboyer1

Was reviewing QQQ/drawing trendlines and noticed this....QQQ broke down throught ascending wedge/channel on 4APR and today 5JUN broke up through it. Usually when that happens it hangs there for a day/two then reverses back to the original trend (i.e. down). Fully expect QQQ to move back DOWN through channel in next couple of days (NFP report tomorrow,...

jmboyer1

Here's a very long term chart of DJIA from top in 1929 to today...some neat trendlines, too....while not conclusive, interesting if nothing else! Due to its longeivity, might have to zoom in to get full effect, as chart show's Dow at resistance from upper trendline and lower 2 trendlines indicating possible/hypothetical downside targets. Not enough room to show...

jmboyer1

Updated R2K w/trendlines and possible H&S top developing.... 6MAY14: R2K broke trendline and 200DMA today...topping process seems to be progressing...look for more downside to follow

jmboyer1

IUX (Russell 2K) showing upper trendline resistance.... 6MAY14: Looks like upper trendline still showing resistance....given previous 2007 turnback at same line, great long-term risk/reward point to be short, esp. w/recent breakdowns in leading sectors.

jmboyer1

Ok, so just like previously posted SPY H&S possibility, here's QQQ possible H&S setup (they're pretty much identical for all practical purposes). H&S wouldn't be confirmed until QQQ drops to around 83.5-84ish area to form neckline, then move back up to form a right shoulder (possibly 88-89 area (?), then breaking down back through neckline. Time will tell! NOTE...

jmboyer1

19MAR14: Could today (w/future down a bit) finally be the downward impetus towards a neckline? Does look like we have a well defined left shoulder and head...thus far. While obviously NOT a confirmed H&S pattern yet (wouldn't be confirmed until breaking below the neckline after a right shoulder), it does look to be setting up in a H&S pattern....time will tell....

jmboyer1

NOTE: This is just a possibility I'm looking at to determine the how/when/where/why of a possible top. 2014 SPY H&S Top (?) Characteristics/Similarities to 2007 Top: -Massive rising/ascending wedge from 2009 low -1st breakout of wedge is tip-off ref. mkt topping soon; returns to rest on upper trendline -2nd move remains above upper trendline until it penetrates...

jmboyer1

2007 SPY H&S Top Characteristics: -Massive rising/ascending wedge from 2003 low -1st breakout of wedge is tip-off ref. mkt topping soon; returns to rest on upper trendline -2nd move remains above upper trendline until it penetrates and bounces off lower wedge trendline (establishes neckline and LEFT SHOULDER) -3rd bounce forms head and returns to lower trendline...

jmboyer1

Possible H&S top forming on SOXX? It has a nicely defined head already---w/a rounding top---but wouldn't be out of ordinary for one last pop up to shake out shorts and then finish the head. TBD, of course. 6MAY14: Just following up on this and sure enough, shows how a trend can go on and on and on....that said, recent distribution in indices and leading stocks...

jmboyer1

H&S Top forming in XLB (Materials)?

jmboyer1

AMZN H&S looking "Prime" to gap down soon?

jmboyer1

QQQ breakdown from rising wedge...failure to reclaim a/o break above is bearish

jmboyer1

QQQ rejected on throwback attempts to trendline...not looking good for longs here NOTE (9MAR14): Continually amazed how these trendlines work so well...these are really keeping NAZ in check...if my H&S top theory is correct, we should be at top of head and ready to move down.....TBD.

jmboyer1

XIV not looking too sprightly here....

jmboyer1

Bet this doesn't end well for TNA longs....

jmboyer1

FWIW here's a chart showing a non-symmetrical possible H&S top in 2014....not saying it will happen, but the actual H&S pattern (non-symmetrical) compared to the non-symmetrical 1929 H&S top posted here is very similar in terms of technical similarities (i.e. downward-sloping neckline which is quite bearish). Know there's a chart out there shown by Mark...

jmboyer1

FWIW here's a chart showing non-symmetrical H&S top in 1929, the greatest crash of all time....