jsaettele

jsaettele

Cable ripped higher from the median line. I was looking for that to provide temporary support and for resistance to come in near 1.3170/85. The former happened…the latter didn’t and I’m questioning whether or not yesterday’s reversal was meaningful or just ‘a dip’. If I solely consider median line analysis, then GBPUSD is a raging bull. The median line was...

jsaettele

USDCAD turned up last week after taking out the 2/21 low at 1.3202. I favor going with strength above 1.3315. If that happens, then initial upside focus is the June high at 1.3715.

jsaettele

NZDUSD broke the channel from the March low and initial downside focus is the former 4th wave low at .6380. Price is sitting on the lower parallel from the short term bearish channel. If price breaks below, then the underside of that line becomes resistance. If price bounces here, then .6585-.6600 is proposed resistance.

jsaettele

Pay attention to silver at 25.12-26.23. This is the September 2013 high, 2011 and 2012 support, and the 38.2% retrace of the decline from the 2011 high. If this freight train is going to stop for at least a short while, then this would be a good range to provide resistance.

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EURUSD is fast approaching the top of the channel from the 2008 high. The level is bolstered by the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the 2018 high and highs from September and June 2018 at 1.1823/52. Big level so maybe EURUSD stops going up everyday.

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USDJPY has been contracting for 3 months in what’s taken the shape of a triangle. Triangles tend to (not always) serve as continuation patterns. Since the move prior to the triangle was up, I’m mentally prepared for another bull leg in USDJPY. There is a high volume level from Tuesday at 106.91. Watch that for support. 108.70s remains a near term upside...

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AUDUSD has reached the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the 2018 high at .7131. This level is bolstered by the May and December 2016 lows. I’m on alert for a reversal either now or from the upper parallel of the channel from the 2011 high / 200 week average at .7230/60.

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USDCAD (not shown) is trying to break above channel resistance from the March high and I remain constructive GBPUSD so I thought that it would be interesting to look at GBPCAD. I did…and it is interesting! A nearly 2 month head and shoulders bottom may be in the works and price held the trendline from the August 2019 low. The neckline for a breakout is 1.7175...

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USDCAD tanked on BoC. Very short term focus is on where the decline from 6/26 would consist of 2 equal legs at 1.3422. Proposed resistance now is the high volume level from 7/9 at 1.3567. Pattern wise, there are several ways to interpret action since the June low. The rally into 6/26 is in 3 waves but the decline from that level could end up as a 3 wave drop...

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This is a massive level for copper. That simple. Price made a bearish engulfing pattern today and a long term trendline and major horizontal level. This combination makes me favor the downside. Near term, continue to be aware of the median line and lower parallel of the channel from the March low (see below). The center line is about 2.86 now and the lower...

jsaettele

The long held 1.1460 target was nearly reached today in EURUSD. This is where waves 1 and 5 would be equal. High volume in futures this morning on the high along with bearish seasonal tendencies after this week put me on alert for a short.

jsaettele

Silver traded into and reversed off of the line from the July 2016 and September 2019 highs. The rally from the March low is in 5 waves and is confined to a Schiff fork from the low (not shown here but you can draw it in). A break under the lower parallel would indicate a behavior change and suggest that a larger corrective process is underway. An initial level...

jsaettele

AUDUSD traded back into and reversed from daily reversal resistance but the fact that price rolled over before reaching the 25 line indicates a weakening uptrend and warns of a break (similar logic to prolonged RSI divergence). When a parallel has provided support/resistance for an extended period of time and price fails to reach that parallel before reversing,...

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An alternate GBPUSD interpretation is that remains above 1.2508 given completion of a head and shoulders bottom. Under this scenario, support should be 1.2565/75 and the objective is 1.2808 (in line with the June high). Bottom line, be aware of 1.2565/75 as the initial level for support. If price reacts at that level, then there’s the opportunity to buy with a...

jsaettele

I remain broadly constructive GBPUSD but price could pull back from the current level, which is defined by 2020 VWAP. I’m showing 2 technical interpretations. An Elliott interpretation is that 5 waves up are complete or nearly so and that price should pull back towards the area of the prior 4th wave. 1.2460s, which is a clear horizontal level and near VWAP from...

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NZDUSD tagged the line off of the April 2018-December 2019 highs again today. Focus is lower towards the bottom of the ‘box’ and lower parallel of the channel from the March low at .6380. AUDUSD short may be a better play given that AUDNZD sports a possible head and shoulders top since late April.

jsaettele

USDCAD stalled after spiking through 1.4160s. Trading focus remains higher with ideal support now narrowed to the 61.8% retrace of the rally from this week’s low at 1.3980. This would also be near the top side of the trendline that crosses highs since 3/23 (blue line).

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This is an analog with a stretched out 1987. The analog is anchored with the final leg up from 1/31 to 2/19. Today is a major pivot high day according to the analog. This obviously lines up with the indices trading into their respective resistance levels. Whether it’s a higher low, re-test, or lower low, the next major low pivot is 5/14. TVC:SPX AMEX:SPY