kilo1romeo

kilo1romeo

In the accompanying chart I show a high probability support zone for $ZS_F Soybeans at approx. $835 - 790 zone. If demand signals start flipping and firing, that may be a good place to go long. Meanwhile, in the absence of any real demand, I can't see a turn around. The recent lows look vulnerable.

kilo1romeo

I am scaling in a small position in $DNKN Dunkin Brands. I initiated the position the morning of 2015.03.10. My strategy: "#3 Supply Headwind" from early December 2014 flipped to "#3 Demand Tailwind" in early January at the same time "2 Demand" kicked in. In retrospect, hat was the time to buy! However, the next best thing happened. DNKN made its first pull...

kilo1romeo

$SPY disposition has not changed even with the failed o/n futs attempt to back test resistance Fri. Since the beginning of the year, I have seen the pace of distribution pick up. I am showing the average trade size of the SPY as a comment after a clean static chart under this post because it reveals professional intent. Until I see significant demand signals at...

kilo1romeo

$CHD looks like it's being trimmed on the up moves. See Excess Demand Supply signals. I will be trimming back and trailing up. Should not drop until the green "A" flips to a red "D". At that time (if other signals have not flipped green) Supply signals 1 thru 5 will be in alignment. Then I'll pull the trim trigger. Technical resistance above is at the $91 +/-...

kilo1romeo

$OCN will not proceed higher until the "#1 Supply" signal from 2014.02.19 flips to "#1 Demand". Even though a longer term #4 Demand signal calculated yesterday, alignment is needed first. I am still holding. I will loosen up my stops. Outside chance of a test down. A "D" distribution signal will let me know if there is a test down coming. These scripts are...

kilo1romeo

I will be accumulating $XOM Exxon Mobil below $81 as a scale in. Approx $80 down to $78 is a zone that is showing a high probability of at least a significant bounce. Currently XOM is signaling accumulation. It may turn into something more. My strategy is: I'm wrong below $75 and/or scale out some with profit at $85 and move my stop(s) up. This is a risk...

kilo1romeo

$ES_F Turnaround Thursday? Yesterday calculated a likely pro buy bar. Overnight promptly turned around. $2058.50 is resistance.

kilo1romeo

$CL_F No signs of a reversal up yet. Many contango buyer may get hurt. Probabilities increasing for a high $30's spike low if recent longs get shaken out.

kilo1romeo

The white price bar indicates low supply (so far) today. Average trade size is below the 3 month average and well below the average for the last 2 weeks. Aggregate volume is trending to come in approximately 80% of 3 month average at the close. Feb 17 saw an early "D"istribution signal followed by a "#2 Excess Supply" on Feb 25, then "#1 Supply" on Feb 26. The...

kilo1romeo

Long term supply signal in late Dec warn of distribution up here. Now short term and medium term supply signals have kicked in. New resistance level at 48.01 calculated and plotted. Support at $42.08, then $30.43 Classic short at shoulder of 2014.02.24.

kilo1romeo

Average trade size picks up, #3 supply, then #2 supply all lead into 2015.03.02.Mon top (so far). Support is not holding, but the day isn't over. Support & Resistance levels are plotted.

kilo1romeo

Three weeks ago T-Bond saw this level. Likely to penetrate. Next level is a revisit to 140 not seen since Nov 2014. Note the high level excess supply signals in late Dec.

kilo1romeo

$GDXJ I was wrong in thinking the low vol pull back would hold. (see post from 2015.02.23), However, on 2015.02.26 and 2015.03.02, supply signals calculated as a warning. Toxic.

kilo1romeo

$OCN Ocwen LONG on pull back and low supply. See s/r levels and demand/supply signals. Long at $8.56, Stop under $7.37

kilo1romeo

$SPY average trade size picked up in wks 2 & 3 of February leading to weakening in the S&P 500. Now churning between $213.40 resistance & $207 - 208 support. I would expect much churn back and forth ahead of FED rate (possible tightening) announcements. Likely distribution for many months up here.

kilo1romeo

$ES_F still above support with churn and holding. Rollover is coming. Pro positioning will be key. #2 Excess supply sig on 2015.02.25. Major macro econ events (FED rates) coming that will affect equities.

kilo1romeo

After clearing the HVN High Volume Node of $95 representing supply from 1997 - 1999, the $DXY $DX_F is on track to get to the next HVN of $99 and then the nice round number of $100 where I suspect it will pull back. I am bullish to $100 then bearish. Watch commodities.

kilo1romeo

Longer term supply signals since December, January mid term supply and now difficulty getting through L7 Cyclical Resistance. I have trimmed to a 1/3 position and tightened stops. This is more than normal since the SPY, IVV, ES E-mini, etc are all showing excess supply coming in.