kiwiwalnut

kiwiwalnut

The recent metals recovery has largely driven the strength in the AUD in recent weeks. Not expecting any bullish sentiment in the USD for some time yet after 8 years of meek growth and inflation. The FED is reaching its limit to guide the economy and I hope it does not ever reach what the BOJ is going through now. Futures in metals and resources suggest more...

kiwiwalnut Updated 

As per Bloomberg's survey of 25 economists - 20 believe that Glenn Stevens will lower the interest rate today due to low inflation. Text book fundamentals at play. However, I believe the question should not be whether the RBA will cut rates, but rather will it actually help the Australian economy and lift inflation. There are strong signs that low inflation is...

kiwiwalnut

Position trade - seeing upward pressure from the Cable. Not all doom and gloom until Article 50 is triggered - but by then, UK will have most of their ducks lined up. Small lot position trade - open to early close if wrong and definitely add more position pending PA

kiwiwalnut

Not much time but quick post - nzd heading into great shorts on most pairs; except for nzdjpy. Looks like market is lashing out after BOJ disappointment today - and NZD & AUD are the pairs with market go to for yields as seen as safer. But aren't they risky G10 currencies....? Lets see Good fib confluence with Audnzd - this is what i think will play out. Wee dip...

kiwiwalnut

just imo - catch vol down on BOJ and ride up. imo

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Similar set up in AUDCAD

kiwiwalnut

US Date coming up and still waiting for a big response from this pair. Expectations from Fed to even consider resume rates increase on the backdrop of Brexit uncertainty would require a massive CPI increase. Maybe 1.5 +. This is of course after big NFP did little to shift market sentiment on Fed decisions. Working with 2 TL's - green being from most recent and...

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Have Sell Limit set to catch last of upward PA momentum if correct. SL above 1.0525~ support resistance which is also fib confluence area. AUD may be due for an upward retracement to 1.08 - 9 so will wait for next short entry is this does happen.

kiwiwalnut

IMO - BoE will not reduce rates as it's far too early to tell whether impact from Brexit as dragged fundamentals down. So far, its just equity and fx that has been hit and BoE will need all the ammo they can get for after Brexit - when it finally happens. No certainty until May triggers Article 50 - if she can last that long. Will not be surprised if May gets...

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Balance of ideas with possibility of one more leg up before the 'big short'. If PA breaks TL then next targets will be 0.7040 followed by 0.698~. An upward move to 0.74 is possible where next historical structural support / resistance lies but not likely as it will require strong fundamental data from NZ and weakening of US inflationary pressure. Even RBNZ keeping...

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Good short entry - likely to be retracement rather than reversal. 2 targets: TP1: 0.699~ above recent structure support and EMA 200 on 1hr TP2: Previous fib 618 and above recent low on 4hr SL2: will be dynamic and adjusted to entry for no risk trade when PA reaches 0.7050~

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Super news dependent and idea is for the brave with oil at a critical level with Brent hovering around $50 and Brexit ref around the corner. @ key structural support. I'm bias for more weakness in GBP and going for TL past 1.76. wait for break to confirm or if bounce for a long

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Looking for long entries. when this goes up...... it will be huge Entered small lot position swing trade. no TP. very acceptable losses if goes not play out my way

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Messy but its here. Waiting and lurking.....

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Waiting for another touch of ema200 for short. Was in before when it almost touched some DS but closed that for 70 pips. waiting for slightly better entry in the next 30 - 60 mins

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Area to consider short again. PRZ coming up generally good bounce when RSI and stoch sync up - MACD also looking to follow so wait and see

kiwiwalnut

Thinking tea cup formation? Very early to tell right now - but what if..... No buy until second green TL broken or PA goes past 0.71 Should be one corrective upward move to 0.73 ish area before another downward leg to .236 Fib area. Ooorrrrr - none of above

kiwiwalnut

Holding previous short from 1.93 with target @ 1.88 Looking to add short as entered PRZ for one more potential correction move. Might hit EMA50 and TL before downward move. See how long oil stays above $50 - proby won't hit $55 before prices start to drop